Quantifying terror, how many will die stateside in a year?

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I sense a prevalent notion that terrorism poses a statistically significant threat. As a child I was once told that most fears are not realized and I'd like to conduct a small test.

The question in this poll is how many people (of any nationality) you think will die in the continental US in the next year as a direct result of terrorist attacks.

I know this can be construed as a cold heartless topic, I think it is best evaluated after a year transpires. To be clear, this is not meant to validate anyone's conclusions just to evaluate how everyone evaluates teh threat of terror in numbers.

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Do you want us to comment on our votes, Craven? I voted 0 - 10, although I was not sure if you meant domestic acts as well as those related to the agenda of foreign countries.

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Terror may grow and may not. Terror groups cannot be efficient without open or covert support of some governmental structures (pertaining to what is called rogue states), and the countries that support terror may learn some lessons from the new approaches of the USA and lower their profile in order to avoid being attacked.
Terror is not only a fighting technique of the desperate individuals, it is mainly the warfare of the countries that have no chances to win on the battlefield. If such countries' leadership realizes that their support of terror may drag them into war that they are doomed to lose, they will have to rethink their approaches regarding strategic goals and techniques.

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In comparison to the number of deaths from drunk driving, preventable disease, spousal violence ... I don't think terrorism will be any sort of blip on the national death stats on U.S. soil. Especially not terrorism from outside the U.S.

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By the way, in the most terror-stroken country in the world, namely Israel, number of road accidents victims every year exceeds number of terror victims. Terror has more psychologic significance than the practical one: with proper functioning of security services managing to prevent disasters like 09/11, it is possible to live with terror. And when terror leaders realize futility of their efforts, intensity of terror gradually decreases.

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I think more Americans will die of lightening than they will do by the hands of terrorists.

So if i was Bush i would work out a Billion dollar plan to get that lethal lightening out of the air. Dead is right above your head and the president doesn't respond!!!

Nine of ten lightening deaths occur between May and September. Two-thirds of the people who die from lightening, die within one hour of being struck. Many of these deaths are the result of cardiac arrest caused by the bolt of lightening.

Between 1980 and 1995, the National Center for Health Statistics reports that there were 1,318 deaths resulting from lightening in the U.S. This averages out to about 80 per year. Most of the people killed by lightening are men (85%) and most are between the ages of 15 and 44 (68%). Most occurred in the afternoon or evening (73%).

When Lightening Strikes, Strike Back with CPR

300 Americans die each year from the classic form of Cruetzfeldt-Jakob disease. No cure has been found! Better start a research program.

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Craven, not to be a pain here but would you define the use of the word "terrorism" in reference to your question here?

I ask only because the official US Government definition is so vague it's pretty much worthless.

Quote:

Terrorism is the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.

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Does terrorism include the IRS? How about when the mafia sells you "protection" under a very similar scheme?

Does it include constantly looking over your shoulder whenever you drive a car?

Does it include the anxious feeling you get, when you don't use the proper brand of car/food/clothing/toothpaste and you really want to fit in, or keep your job?

Does terrorism include the fear of being held in a rape-room, when you may be in jail only a few days? (Over 200,000 males are raped every year).

Does terrorism include the fear of being strip-searched when you board a plane, or get a speeding ticket?

Does terrorism include the fear of losing your entire life savings when a neighbor files a frivolous lawsuit against you?

Does terrorism include the fear of relatives in another country being invaded by the U.S., just because the U.S. is feeling scared of what might happen if they don't rule the world?

Does terrorism include hate-crimes (based on race, sex, religion, orientation, etc)? A straight friend of mine was killed for dressing and talking just a bit "gay".

Food for thought: We need a clear definition, but also one that
a) works
b) is not loaded with ones own agenda.

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dlowan wrote:

Do you want us to comment on our votes, Craven? I voted 0 - 10, although I was not sure if you meant domestic acts as well as those related to the agenda of foreign countries.

Hmm, interesting distinction. I am asking for both but another interesting question si how people evaluate them side by side (in terms of probability).

steissd wrote:

Terror may grow and may not.

Agreed, since we are dealing with such small samplings any activity represents a large change.

steissd wrote:

Terror groups cannot be efficient without open or covert support of some governmental structures (pertaining to what is called rogue states).

There is no statistical basis for this claim. I'm interested in stats for now.

ehBeth wrote:

In comparison to the number of deaths from drunk driving, preventable disease, spousal violence ... I don't think terrorism will be any sort of blip on the national death stats on U.S. soil. Especially not terrorism from outside the U.S.

That much is a given, but I doubt there will even be a blip.

steissd wrote:

By the way, in the most terror-stroken country in the world, namely Israel, number of road accidents victims every year exceeds number of terror victims. Terror has more psychologic significance than the practical one: with proper functioning of security services managing to prevent disasters like 09/11, it is possible to live with terror. And when terror leaders realize futility of their efforts, intensity of terror gradually decreases.

That terror's effect is largely phycological is a central theme to this topic. BTW, I agree that when they see that it's futile they will stop but am reasonably certain that they will not come to see things that way.

fishin' wrote:

Craven, not to be a pain here but would you define the use of the word "terrorism" in reference to your question here?

I ask only because the official US Government definition is so vague it's pretty much worthless.

Quote:
Terrorism is the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.

I could define it, but then this might turn out to be a discussion on said definition. In any case I'm more interested in seeing how the nuanced definitions alters your take on the probability.

e.g. "if operating under this definition..., if operating under that definition..."

CodeBorg wrote:

Does terrorism include the IRS? How about when the mafia sells you "protection" under a very similar scheme?

Does it include constantly looking over your shoulder whenever you drive a car?

Does it include the anxious feeling you get, when you don't use the proper brand of car/food/clothing/toothpaste and you really want to fit in, or keep your job?

Does terrorism include the fear of being held in a rape-room, when you may be in jail only a few days? (Over 200,000 males are raped every year).

Does terrorism include the fear of being strip-searched when you board a plane, or get a speeding ticket?

Does terrorism include the fear of losing your entire life savings when a neighbor files a frivolous lawsuit against you?

Does terrorism include the fear of relatives in another country being invaded by the U.S., just because the U.S. is feeling scared of what might happen if they don't rule the world?

Does terrorism include hate-crimes (based on race, sex, religion, orientation, etc)? A straight friend of mine was killed for dressing and talking just a bit "gay".

No (for the purposes of this topic).

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craven wrote

Quote:

BTW, I agree that when they see that it's futile they will stop but am reasonably certain that they will not come to see things that way.

not sure i agree with this, there have been a number of historical events that indicate otherwise. In particular the ghost shirt/ghost dance that spread among many amerind tribes of the american west in which the people believed that their way of life had been/was being destroyed and felt that since their culture was going to be eradicated they could at least die an honorable death in resistence.

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OK, Since you are leaving it pretty much wide open I choose 50-100. While 9/11 skewed the numbers for a while the average normally works out to about 70 or so if you throw in the KKK and the "Earth First" types.

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Craven wrote:

No (for the purposes of this topic).

Oh.
Well, then the answer is simple: Terrorism is the least of our problems.
It's 99.999% psychological, and the people creating terrorism consist of whoever is hyping it.

The fear of "them" is a powerful tool to justify and instigate anything we want to do today. We will always have terrorists because we will always need terrorists -- to justify our own actions.

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Ok, Fishin', how about a take on the threat of foreign terror (in the continental US)?

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Well, I rolled it all together but foreign terrorists within the US kill very few in your average year. The last I saw the numbers were something like 10-15 usually in clusters that are spaced 2 to 3 years apart so on average it's probably 4 or 5 people. It's the home-grown nuts that have been the bigger problem thusfar. I doubt that will change much.

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I'd have to agree, I made the poll to coincide with both statistical evidence and statistical red herrings (e.g. 0-10 is borne out by statistics, 100 is both a wider definition and a large terror attack, 1000-5000 is a statistical anomality like 9/11).

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If you want to include possible numbers of people killed in "attempts" the number shoots way up. As with most things, the public only hears about the nasty results when the nuts are successful. There have been hundreds of foiled attempts each year for some time now but those aren't usually advertised widely.

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Yup, I was discussing this with my brother recently. Terrorism and law enforecement are "hit and miss" IMO.

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+11.000 Americans die in shooting incidents. Each Year!
Thats the real terror!

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I didn't vote for a particular number because each time I reached for a number I felt a pang of distaste at making such an estimate -- especially since my gut feeling is that there WILL BE a concerted effort by terrorists to make what they will consider retaliatory killings in the United States and the United Kingdom.

And I rather suspect the attempts will have as many successes as failures.

I disagree that actions like the invasion of Iraq will result in fewer acts of terrorism. I think they probably lead to more -- and feel that we will learn that ugly truth the had way.

My natural inclinations in life are towards optimism -- and I hate the idea that I am pessimistic on this issue, but I am.

I expect that the human cost to the United States will be higher as a result of terroristic activities during the next few years than they were as a result of the actual war related deaths.

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frolic wrote:

+11.000 Americans die in shooting incidents. Each Year!
Thats the real terror!

\

Yes, and 41,000+ die in motor vehicle incidents... But neither of those facts has anything to do with the question do they?

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Quantifying terror, how many will die stateside in a year?

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