If you have children would you send them back to school?

so just thinking back to the original question which has evolved to whether or not we should close down the schools.
We seem to have agreement that kids neither get sick or die in such numbers to warrant closing down the school systems. So the concern becomes of one of spread. And so, do we care if it spreads ?
Logically (?) we shouldn't care if spreads to other kids because Covid doesn't present a risk to kids.

We are also told that 80% of the population experience mild symptoms. (For the supposed 20% who have non-mild symptoms, there's obviously going be a portion who need hospitalization and those that will not)
But I doubt the 80% is accurate because I don't know that they have a handle on how many people get Covid and have no symptoms. I have heard this number could be pretty big..as much as ten times the number of reported cases.

Lets say the size of the population who have asymptomatic Covid is only three times the size of those who do have a symptom.. Then instead of 20 out of 100 people with the disease showing a serious a symptom, it is 20 out of 400 or 5%. And again, this 5% would consist of some portion of people who don't strain the hospital system

And we know who most of this 5% is It is people with renal problems; with diabetes, immunological problems, obese people, the aged.

In trying to formulate a open or close school policy, doesn't it make more sense to have these highest risk people to self-isolate rather than shut down the entire educational system in the United States ? If not, why not?

The other argument my glass of wine is suggesting is by opening up the school system how much will the spread really be ? If the high risk people are currently hunkering down now, how many incremental deaths will occur. when they will be even more apt to hunker down. Might we even get a reduction in death and hospitalizations by high risk people by opening up the schools , because they become even more cautious? If not, why not?

Cheers......

2 Replies

@shug23,

Quote:

We seem to have agreement that kids neither get sick or die in such numbers to warrant closing down the school systems. So the concern becomes of one of spread. And so, do we care if it spreads ?
Logically (?) we shouldn't care if spreads to other kids because Covid doesn't present a risk to kids.

You are avoiding a very big problem. Kids can catch the virus at school and them bring them home to their families.

Even if many of the kids themselves don't get seriously ill, you are greatly increasing the spread of the virus to adults.

1 Reply

@shug23,

shug23 wrote:

In trying to formulate a policy, doesn't it make more sense to have these highest risk people to self-isolate rather than shut down the entire educational system in the United States ? If not, why not?

Traditionally, people with highly contagious diseases have been isolated (quarentined), not the potential precipitants of the disease. The only thing I can see different this time around is that we are mostly talking about old people, who don't much matter, any way. I'm seventy-six years old, so, thanks a lot.

2 Replies

@roger,

roger wrote:

shug23 wrote:

In trying to formulate a policy, doesn't it make more sense to have these highest risk people to self-isolate rather than shut down the entire educational system in the United States ? If not, why not?

Traditionally, people with highly contagious diseases have been isolated (quarentined), not the potential precipitants of the disease. The only thing I can see different this time around is that we are mostly talking about old people, who don't much matter, any way. I'm seventy-six years old, so, thanks a lot.

Seventy-six isn't old. Heck, you might still grow up to be president some day.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

In terms of vulnerability to this disease, I'm way up there. It's now a question of what's going to get me first. I prefer not to die of suffocation.

As for president, I wouldn't touch it. It just doesn't sound like a reputable hobby.

0 Replies

@maxdancona,

I did address your point; the suggestion is we only need to worry about the 5% at risk. Some of them will be parents , but most will not

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@roger,

I'm an old-timer myself; nothing personal....we are talking about a policy to address a small segment of the population that is both at a serious health and mortality risk.

Here's the question. Would your behavior change from what it is today if all the schools are open ? If the answer is yes, you just made one of my points.

1 Reply

@shug23,

Has it occurred to you that you are making almost the identical argument "Women wouldn't get raped if they dressed more modestly, or they didn't walk alone, or if they just didn't wear skimpy underwear". Young children have been sexually abused, boys and girls........so if the percentage is low enough...lets not worry about child abuse??? Does that make sense to you?

I'm retired, no longer considered middle aged, also with an auto-immune disorder and due to a complicated surgery I no longer have a spleen which makes me much less able to survive even minor infections. I'm not looking to you for compassion, but I think you are deluding yourself about the ratio of infected children V the grandparents or the diabetic parent(s). What will happen to the children who rely on their grandparents for a roof over their heads, and regular daily meals? What are we going to do with all the abandoned children?Should we just put them in foster care..or maybe we can just ship them off to Texas to languish in tents until this whole shitstorm passes?

Don't get me wrong, I do understand where you are coming from....I don't know you, but I suppose if push came to shove I would pick my offspring over yours...nothing personal of course....You might be comfortable living in Mad Max/Hunger Games scenario, I'm not, and I didn't work my whole life to leave a dystopia for the people who will survive long after me.

The statement is "United we Stand Divided we fall" not "Better you than Me"

2 Replies

@jcboy,

Thank you Edgar

0 Replies

@glitterbag,

To be honest, I haven't come down on either side of the 'open the schools' thing. To me, the dangers are obvious. The problems with keeping them closed might be just as big. Just not as obvious. Is there a possibility of waiting a year and suddenly finding the job market flooded with two crops of graduating seniors? If so, what would be the effect of one cohort having had an extra year to mature? And how is this distance learning going to work out in the long run?

As I've said before, the world is still changing. I'm old, and I do not like.

1 Reply

@roger,

Neither have I, my DIL is a teacher and one of my nieces as well......it will be arduous to keep all the children and teachers safe. I think it can be done, but there has to be a better/smarter solution. I'm a baby boomer, after all the vets came home after WWII (I live in Maryland....close enough to D.C) The Defense industries and DOD planted themselves here. The influx of all the people, then all the children, by the time I was old enough for elementary school the public schools were doing a morning and afternoon shift. There were just not enough schools to handle all the children. My High School graduation ceremony had 850 kids, so many it took two different afternoons to hand out diplomas.

We managed to educate the children after a lengthy WWII, I hope we can find a few more smart people who can think of a way to help our children, our grandchildren, our teachers.....and everybody's parents and grandparents to survive this pandemic. I don't mean to sound strident....but we are supposed to be the richest country in the world....it's time to engage smart people to solve this dilemma. We don't need anymore political flunkies who are just glorified press agents who just shout "Oh look, it that a dog fight?"

0 Replies

@glitterbag,

So, if I understand your position : we need to let millions of kids suffer by shutti9ng down the schools, putting whatever kind of burden that puts on the parents who are trying to work, because you personally (and a very mall minority of the population) might fall into the high risk group and you don't think that is fair ?

My point is there is a better alternative and that is to come up with a compassionate policy that focuses on the high risk group . I'm not defining what that policy would be; ; I'm not offering it.

Maybe it includes providing free groceries delivered to the high risk people; maybe its free internet with Skype, maybe its free healthcare. Maybe it includes financial incentives or day-care for the dependent grandchildren

The argument to close the schools starts with I don't want my kid to get sick and die. That argument is debunked.

So the next argument became , I don't want the schools to open because of fear of the virus spreading. I'm simply examining that argument and concluding that that fear is neither real or rational for the vast majority of the population. Not that I want anyone to get sick, but the numbers suggest most people who get sick will come through it just fine :- pick your number 97%, 98%-99%

I'm definitely NOT saying 'screw the high risk people'; I'm merely suggesting a better policy might be focus on them and their needs while we wait for the vaccine (if one ever gets developed) rather than shutting down the educational system.

Your counter to that argument seems to be " Hey, I'm one of those high-risk people so I don't agree " . While are entitled to your opinion , I don't see the logic of not reopening the schools because you disagree.

As an aside, I'm trying to follow your women-rape argument. So in your analogy, is your solution that we cut off all men's penises because some of them will rape scantly clad women ?

3 Replies

@shug23,

Forget schools for the moment. Your position seems that that virus is no big deal. We're all making mountains out of molehills. I'm glad the governor of Florida has found someone to agree with him.

By the way, I think I'm about as aware of the social and economic problems as most people.

1 Reply

@roger,

I have not said that; not sure where you get that idea. I think closing the schools is a mistake and am discussing why I disagree with those who hold a different view.

(Did I even suggest you weren't aware of the social and economic impact? Not sure why you are bringing Florida's governor into the discussion or why someone else is talking about women getting raped as arguments why schools should be closed)

Here is my thinking, once again : It's a terrible disease that affects a small portion of the vulnerable population . It can be costly to some but in the vast majority of cases is not particularly serious. It may produce a strain on some of the hospital systems around the country ( I need to see some numbers, not headlines though). Viruses mutate. We may or may not get a vaccine ..

1 Reply

So we will see what happens; no minds are changed. and we can leave it at that. Good luck to those states that keep their schools closed and good luck to those that open them up.,

As an aside, the good news is we probably had yet another record day of recoveries yesterday (but you will be hard pressed to find that statistic).

1 Reply

@shug23,

shug23 wrote:

So we will see what happens; no minds are changed. and we can leave it at that. Good luck to those states that keep their schools closed and good luck to those that open them up.,

As an aside, the good news is we probably had yet another record day of recoveries yesterday (but you will be hard pressed to find that statistic).

There is no such thing as "recoveries" stats...because we truly do not know what "recovery" looks like. There may be massive, irreparable damage done to people who are able to leave hospital and go home apparently "recovered."

The notion that we "probably had yet another record day of recoveries" is something from your imagination...something you invented. It definitely is not a function of the field of statistics.

1 Reply

@Frank Apisa,

well, you can find lots of state and federal reporting listing cumulative cases, deaths, active cases and recoveries, so I don't know what you are talking about...

The vast majority of people do not get hospitalized, the vast majority of people walk away from the disease with no problem

But I will cede this : If someone has had the disease and never had a symptom, are they a 'recovery' ? They certainly are counted as a case and they are certainly not counted as a death...

But don't take my word on it;

"In order to be considered recovered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a person must be free of a fever without the help of medication, show improvement in respiratory conditions and receive negative results from two separate tests performed at least 24 hours apart.

Kelley says that because the U.S. has struggled to buy and produce enough tests, the testing priority has been on diagnoses, not recovery.

According to the CDC, a person can also be considered recovered without taking tests if they have gone at least three days without a fever, show improvement in other symptoms and wait seven days since symptoms began"

1 Reply

@shug23,

shug23 wrote:

well, you can find lots of state and federal reporting listing cumulative cases, deaths, active cases and recoveries, so I don't know what you are talking about...

The vast majority of people do not get hospitalized, the vast majority of people walk away from the disease with no problem

But I will cede this : If someone has had the disease and never had a symptom, are they a 'recovery' ? They certainly are counted as a case and they are certainly not counted as a death...

But don't take my word on it;

"In order to be considered recovered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a person must be free of a fever without the help of medication, show improvement in respiratory conditions and receive negative results from two separate tests performed at least 24 hours apart.

Kelley says that because the U.S. has struggled to buy and produce enough tests, the testing priority has been on diagnoses, not recovery.

According to the CDC, a person can also be considered recovered without taking tests if they have gone at least three days without a fever, show improvement in other symptoms and wait seven days since symptoms began"

And if the long term study finds that people who "recover" are actually severely damaged (but not yet seen) people like you will say, "Who woulda thought that we should be more careful?"

Every day, the same nagging problem: Is Trump more stupid than his supporters...or are most of his supporters more stupid than he?

I guess it will be question that can never satisfactorily be answered.

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https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/07/15/more-than-20-countries-are-reopening-schools-the-us-should-take-note/

here is a pretty good article on what is going on in Europe

0 Replies

@shug23,

Quote:

So the next argument became , I don't want the schools to open because of fear of the virus spreading. I'm simply examining that argument and concluding that that fear is neither real or rational for the vast majority of the population. Not that I want anyone to get sick, but the numbers suggest most people who get sick will come through it just fine :- pick your number 97%, 98%-99%

There are two flaws with your argument...

1) This virus spreads. Let's say Person A has the virus, and spreads it with 2% of the people she interacts with. It doesn't end there. Each of those people also spread it to 2% of the people they interact with.

The virus is spreading widely. Your math is clearly is clearly failing to explain that fact.

2) If 2% of people die from a disease... that is a horrible disease. If I knew that there was 1 one in 50 chance that I would die when I stepped on a airplane, I wouldn't fly. If I knew there was a 1 in 50 chance I would die from eating ice cream.. no more ice cream.

You are talking as if 2% is a small number. When we are talking about death rate... 2% is a huge number. We are talking about millions of people dead. 2% of people dead is one hell of a lot of people.

1 Reply

If you have children would you send them back to school?

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