Eureka! I finally, and accidently, came across a website that seems to supply quite a bit of the information I've been asking for on this thread.
I invite everyone to take a look at it. Lots of good info.
I suppose I'm going to have to yet again make the disclaimer that yes, there is a significant student loan debt problem where many people have problems meeting payments on their debt.
Without looking further as to why these people are having problems, I cannot make a good start of forming an opinion on what should be done about it.
Again, those are the people I am interested in. Not those who are managing their debt.
Why on earth would anyone want to forgive the debt of anyone who is managing it, maybe even getting ahead on it. It is grossly unfair to continually add this number of people into the mix, as well as the dollar amount they are managing.
Also, and this number or percentage is impossible to prove, but there is obviously people in the troubled group that were out and out just crappy managers of their finances (not the people who literally cannot make ends meet, no matter what), and/or knew upon taking the loan out they were going to default on it, and/or just plain wasted not only their money, but their opportunity for education.
No idea what that number is, but why should I care about them?
If you knew you were going to default, and/or you knew you shouldn't be spending money on certain things, that's on you.
Obviously I am not talking about those who had to make a choice between getting baseline nutrition/housing/basic human needs. Not addressing people like neptune who said they walk out of their home every day hoping they don't get shot. Was that statement even true? Never got an answer when I asked.
There are times when it is impossible to make it work. I get that. We ALL get that.
I'm really tired of having to repeat that type of statement over and over.
Those are the people loan forgiveness needs to be focused on.
It's funny, a few days ago when I was considering a post, I asked myself "What would be my gut feeling, conservatively, of the number I should put, not having any information, of the percentage of people who are making their loan payments without experiencing extreme problems, or haven't had to start making payments yet?" I thought about it and came up with "What the hell, I'm gonna say 50%. I think it's more than that, but I'm gonna go with 50%"
From the linked site, I figured...
Loans in repayment $623.7 bill 17.8 mill borrowers total 40.50%
Loans in deferment $124.3 billion 3.7 million borrowers 8.50%
Loans in forbearance $111.1 billion 2.6 million borrowers 6.00% 55%
Loans in default $101.4 billion 5.1 million borrowers 11.50%
Loans in grace period $43.9 billion 1.7 million borrowers 4.00% 15%
The above figures account for a little over 1 trillion dollars, and about 31 million borrowers. I know it isn't the same as the oft quoted 1.3 or 1.5 T and 44 mil borrowers. I supposed some of the money and people are under other catagories.
But, the thing is, overall it adds up, even with people and money not listed the same as other sources.
The figures above add up to about $32,000 in debt for each person, as opposed to $37,000 I accept to be as valid a number. Not that far off base.
However, if you take the $145B of loans in default or grace period, and divide by the 6.8 million in default or grace period, you come up with only about $21,000 per person.
That's 16K lower than the average debt of 37K
So what does that mean?
My guess is that many of those who are defaulting on these much smaller amounts weren't making as much income.
That is a definate problem. No denying it.
It would be interesting to me to in depth survey these 6.8 million and drill down as to how much lower their income was, as well as listing in detail what their monthly/quarterly/yearly expenses are.
Also, and I think this is where a lot of people have a problem, having the nerve to ask everyone to be accountable.. Asking them if there were areas where they felt they could have cut back, or made more, or a combination of the 2, and other factors, to the point where they didn't have to default. Actually getting the amounts and on what. Again, the mandatory disclaimer that yes, people need to go out to get pizza sometimes, or an event, but there is a place where it is an unreasonable amount, knowing they have a debt to pay.
If someone owed me money, and then told me they couldn't pay me back, you can be sure I would be asking them why, and expect to be told.
I have every sympathy for those in that group that had something financially devastating happen, like illness, family illness, and many more. Also things like having an unexpected child, loss of job, and so much more.
But let's be realistic. There are among those who defaulted, that if drilled down, claimed that they couldn't cut out brazilian waxes, gotten a less expensive car, or anything else. Those people are there. Why are they being counted?
Every time student loan forgiveness is mentioned, the same few things are thrown out there. the 44 million, the 1.something trillion, the 40% that may default at some future date. Like this is anything like the whole story, along with how oblivious etc a segment of the population is.
Then, when one of the oblvious asks for information which would change the complection of any of that.....silence.
And that 4 minute video that should have been less than one minute. Talk about condescending.
Talk about oversimplication. So apparantly each and every of the attributes below count for the same amount of "steps forward". First off the first and 2nd, if you gave it a moments thought, is nonsensical. If your parents are still married, expect in the rare case that they remain married but one spends time away to the point the child cannot consider them a parent, then you have a father figure in your home. What about parents who remain married, but it is an abusive/ alcoholic/unemployed/etc sh!t storm of a marriage. Each of the following have the exact same impact? Each is worth 2 steps? These things can be configured so many different ways, items combined, eliminated. But then we wouldn't have an overlong video of students running their hands across their face, taking "mother may I, giant steps", looking around confused, etc.
access to private education
worry of cell phone shut off
never had to help with bills
where next meal is coming from
Oh. I love this little tidbit I picked up when googling around trying to verify something.
News flash that "forgiving all student debt could increase persons income by $4K a year.
No sh!t Sherlock. $335 pay a month.
It just sounds so much more dramatic to say $4K a year I suppose.
So what is the real number of people who have unmanageable student loan, who despite all best efforts, would benefit from debt reduction/forgiveness/other? Seems like 15% or 16% are in default or in grace period. 6.8 million....That's a far cry from the total of 44 million who have student debt. Tell me why all debt needs to be forgiven if 7 million are in default or grace?
Way back in high school, when dinosaurs roamed the earth, I remember doing the following in a class one day.
Keep in mind this was not what the class was about. It wasn't some program that lasted even weeks. One....day. Well, we did it, took it home to look at, and we all read our estimates the next day.
We were tasked with writing out what we thought we would be spending in an average month of a variety of items.
Of course we on our own couldn't have known all the things we would need to spend money on, so the teacher did provide, on the board items we needed to include. I remember it included stuff like hygiene, haircuts, clothes, gifts, and other things that even adults often clump together. This as well as the things like rent, car, gas, etc.
It was interesting when the class shared their estimates. Sometimes funny, like the girl who thought she would spend something like $200 in todays dollars on haircuts. Sometimes insightful seeing what others would spend. A lot of us kids scrathing out numbers as we heard more realistic numbers for certain items from others, and input from the teacher.
I remember this day clearly from 42 years ago, because it was fun as well as educational. I still remember what different people said about why they chose the amounts they did.
When I hear the standard "well a lot of people were never taught this" I always think of that day, and think "It's not rocket surgery" Not the actually spending and saving, because as I said to engineer, life happens. It's the "Why was it Mrs. Looney could have us write this stuff down and go over it in one class, review in another it made perfect sense.
I'm not saying that would save the situation, but hearing "I didn't know I shouldn't do xyz, no one told me." makes me wonder why someone didn't take a couple of hours to tell you.