8
   

AP FACT CHECK: Trump falsely claims historic turnaround.

 
 
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2018 11:48 pm
AP FACT CHECK: Trump falsely claims historic turnaround.

July 27, 2018

Quote:
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump falsely claimed Friday he's pulled off "an economic turnaround of historic proportions."

Speaking at the White House after the government reported that the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter, Trump declared that the gains were sustainable and would only accelerate. Few economists outside the administration agree with this claim.

His remarks followed events Thursday in Iowa and Illinois, where Trump falsely repeated a claim that the U.S. economy is the best "we've ever had" and incorrectly asserted that Canada's trade market is "totally closed."

A look at the claims:

TRUMP: "We've accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions." — remarks Friday at the White House.

THE FACTS: Trump didn't inherit a fixer-upper economy.

The U.S. economy just entered its 10th year of growth, a recovery that began under President Barack Obama, who inherited the Great Recession. The data show that the falling unemployment rate and gains in home values reflect the duration of the recovery, rather than any major changes made since 2017 by the Trump administration.

While Trump praised the 4.1 percent annual growth rate in the second quarter, it exceeded that level four times during the Obama presidency. But quarterly figures are volatile and strength in one quarter can be reversed in the next. While Obama never achieved the 3 percent annual growth that Trump hopes to see, he came close. The economy grew 2.9 percent in 2015.

The economy faces two significant structural drags that could keep growth closer to 2 percent than 3 percent: an aging population, which means fewer people are working and more are retired, and weak productivity growth, which means that those who are working aren't increasing their output as quickly as in the past.

Both of those factors are largely beyond Trump's control.

___

TRUMP: "One of the biggest wins in the report, and it is, indeed a big one, is that the trade deficit — very dear to my heart because we've been ripped off by the world — has dropped."

THE FACTS: Trump is correct that a lower trade deficit helped growth in the April-June quarter, but it's not necessarily for a positive reason.

The president has been floating plans to slap import taxes on hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign goods, which has led to the risk of retaliatory tariffs by foreign companies on U.S. goods.

This threat of an escalating trade war has led many companies to increase their levels of trade before any tariffs hit, causing the temporary boost in exports being celebrated by Trump.

Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial, said the result is that the gains from trade in the second quarter will not be repeated.

___

TRUMP: "We're having the best economy we've ever had in the history of our country." — remarks in Granite City, Illinois.

THE FACTS: Even allowing for Trump's tendency to exaggerate, this overstates things.

The unemployment rate is near a 40-year low and growth is solid, but by many measures the current economy trails other periods in U.S. history. Average hourly pay, before adjusting for inflation, is rising at about a 2.5 percent annual rate, below the 4 percent level reached in the late 1990s when the unemployment rate was as low as it is now.

Pay was growing even faster in the late 1960s, when the jobless rate remained below 4 percent for nearly four years. And economic growth topped 4 percent for three full years from 1998 through 2000, an annual rate it hasn't touched since.

___

TRUMP: "The Canadians, you have a totally closed market ... they have a 375 percent tax on dairy products, other than that it's wonderful to deal. And we have a very big deficit with Canada, a trade deficit." — remarks in Peosta, Iowa.

THE FACTS: No, it's not totally closed. Because of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada's market is almost totally open to the United States. Each country has a few products that are still largely protected, such as dairy in Canada and sugar in the United States.

Trump also repeated his claim that the U.S. has a trade deficit with Canada, but that is true only in goods. When services are included, such as insurance, tourism, and engineering, the U.S. had a $2.8 billion surplus with Canada last year.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/factcheck/ap-fact-check-trump-falsely-claims-historic-turnaround/ar-BBL7gj6?ocid=UE13DHP
 
camlok
 
  -2  
Reply Tue 21 Aug, 2018 10:15 pm
Trump is, like all US presidents, a liar. He just excels at lying.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  7  
Reply Fri 31 Aug, 2018 01:08 pm
@Real Music,
Id like to sell off some swamp land to members of his "base" .They will buy ANYTHING
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Fri 31 Aug, 2018 01:56 pm
<Rim Shot>

A big thumbs-up for the Farmerman.
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  3  
Reply Fri 31 Aug, 2018 02:31 pm
@farmerman,
I thought the swamp land had been drained. Am I misinformed?
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  -2  
Reply Fri 19 Oct, 2018 12:13 pm
Huh, I was pointed at this thread with the intention of seeing Trump's false claims and this is all it was? What a let down.

0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Fri 19 Oct, 2018 10:46 pm
You were hoping to confirm that he's a bigger liar than that?
McGentrix
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 20 Oct, 2018 02:12 am
@Setanta,
Setanta wrote:

You were hoping to confirm that he's a bigger liar than that?


"You like your doctor, you will keep your doctor..."
Blickers
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Oct, 2018 12:10 am
@McGentrix,
Yes, and if you like your health insurance policy you COULD keep your insurance policy. It was called "grandfathered" plans. I've posted this several times before. If you liked the health care plan that you had on or before March 2010, when the ACA went into effect, you could keep it.

As you get all your news input from officially approved conservative sources only, you naturally missed this fact. The conservatives were lying through their teeth about the government ending their plans, so the conservative sources made sure nobody got told about the grandfathered plans.

From the ACA webpage:
Quote:
Types of grandfathered plans

You may have a grandfathered plan through your job, or you may have bought one directly from an insurance company or agent or broker.

Job-based grandfathered plans: Can enroll people after March 23, 2010, and still maintain their grandfathered status if the plans:
Haven't been changed to substantially cut benefits or increase costs for plan holders
Notify plan holders they have a grandfathered plan
Have continuously covered at least one person since March 23, 2010

Individual grandfathered plans: Can't newly enroll people after March 23, 2010 and have that new enrollment considered a grandfathered policy. But insurance companies can continue to offer the grandfathered plans to people who were enrolled before that date.
If an insurance company decides to stop offering a grandfathered plan, it must provide notice 90 days before the plan ends and offer other coverage options.

ACA Webpage
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Mon 22 Oct, 2018 04:22 am
Good work, Blickers, but McG's swipe at Obama can be ignored. That's a tu quoque fallacy. This thread is about Plump, not Obama. Moral turpitude on the part of one individual does not excuse moral turpitude by another.
vikorr
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Oct, 2018 04:33 pm
@Setanta,
I remember saying something very similar on another thread.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Oct, 2018 06:00 pm
It's a well-known logical fallacy, at least by those who are serious about conversing on a logical basis.
vikorr
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 23 Oct, 2018 04:16 pm
@Setanta,
I was referring to this conversation I had with you several years back where you engaged in what you are calling a logical fallacy.
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Oct, 2018 04:35 pm
@vikorr,
To which I responded as follows:

No, it's not true, and that's the point of my response, which is not fallacious. What is fallacious is your hateful bigotry to the effect that Muslim scripture makes Muslims violent. I just provided the example of Christian scripture being just as appallingly violent, which, by your criterion, would make Christians uniformly violent.

The only fallacy here is the hateful rant you have made against Muslims based on their scripture. You can't blame me for the "logic," given that you advanced the proposition.


So the operative fallacy there was that Muslim scripture makes them violent, which was your proposition. Don't go all holier-than-thou on me.
vikorr
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 23 Oct, 2018 04:47 pm
@Setanta,
Come now, you were just objecting to Trump apologists using comparison to Obama's Moral turpitude as excuse for Trump's moral turpitude.
Quote:
Moral turpitude on the part of one individual does not excuse moral turpitude by another.

In the linked thread you used comparison to Christian/holy text evil as an excuse of Islamic/Holy text evil.

I objected on the same principle you used in the quote above. And you apparently didn't want a bar of such principle then. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you agree with the principle - I'm talking about your response in that particular thread only.
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Oct, 2018 04:56 pm
@vikorr,
That's bullshit--you were advancing the proposition that Muslims are uniformly murderous because of Islamic scripture. I was pointing out that Christian scripture is as easily characterized as encouraging violence. I left the rest to your imagination, which was probably overly generous of me. By the criterion of your rant, that would make Christians uniformly murderous. Are you prepared to contend that that is the case? Or will you be honest enough to acknowledge that your thesis is flawed. I will add that after years of your performance on the subject of Islam, I will call it bigoted. I will also once again point out the deep and abiding anti-Muslim bigotry in India.

It was not a tu quoque fallacy because I did not claim that Muslim violence is excused by Christian violence. Chuck your bigotry, and grow a brain.
vikorr
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 23 Oct, 2018 05:06 pm
@Setanta,
Come now, in this thread, you just complained about Trump supporters raising Obama's action. In that thread, you raised Christian/holy text evil.

A. In this thread you said 'this is a thread about Trump, not obama'

B. In that thread the same principle would be 'this is a thread about Islam, not Christianity'

A. In this thread you said you can't use comparison on one to excuse the other

B. In the other thread, the same principle would be can't use the evil of the one to excuse the evil of the other.

Quote:
you were advancing the proposition that Muslims are uniformly murderous because of Islamic scripture.
Poppycock. I was complaining about the negative influence of the ideology of the religion, and the 10% of extremists that drive it. How that makes them uniformly murderous is beyond me. I'm sure you can find another logical fallacy of your own making in that.

In any event, anyone can read that linked section for themselves, and make up their own mind if you were breaking your own stated principle, that X on the part of one does not excuse X on the part of another.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Tue 23 Oct, 2018 05:38 pm
I was pointing out the an equivalent negative influence would as easily be alleged to apply to Christians. i did not excuse your alleged scriptural influence on Muslims, by reference to Christians. It was not a tu quoque fallacy--you are wrong. Get over it.
vikorr
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 23 Oct, 2018 05:48 pm
@Setanta,
If you say so. As I said, I'm happy for others to read it for themselves, and make up their own minds.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Tue 23 Oct, 2018 11:28 pm
You're also happy to vilify all Muslims based on a bogus "bad scripture makes bad men" thesis, and apparently unwilling to condemn others on the same basis. If, as you claim, ten percent of Muslims were made "bad men by bad scripture," that would mean well in excess of one hundred million potentially violent and murderous Muslims in the world. That is an absurdity.

Let Indonesia stand as an example. As of the July, 2017 census, the population was well in excess of two hundred sixty million ( all demographic statistics from the CIA World Fact Book). Muslims make up slightly more than 87% of the population. I'll do the math for you, that's in excess of two hundred twenty-five million. Your idiotic ten percent figure gives us well of 22,000,000 screaming, violent, murderous fanatics--all because of bad scripture. The putative fanatics of Indonesia have been remarkably quiescent.

I could go on for pages about individuals in history motivated by their religious fanaticism, or particular groups engaged in what is now called ethnic cleansing. Instead, though, I'll just point out that your thesis is full of ****--and that I never made a moral judgment between Muslims and Christians. I just applied your idiotic thesis.
 

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