blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Dec, 2006 05:53 am
Quote:
Chávez Wins Easily in Venezuela, Showing Wide Support
link
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Dec, 2006 12:31 pm
Poor Venezuela. Yet another chapter in the book of populist illusions that has wasted so much of history on that continent.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Dec, 2006 12:35 pm
Chavez - Democratically elected
Hamas - Democratically elected
Ahmenijad - Democratically elected

...

Are we sure that spreading Democracy and freedom is the way we want to go?

Given that there is a huge anti-US sentiment around the world today thanks to our actions as a country, Democratic elections are likely to produce anti-US leaders of countries...

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Dec, 2006 03:46 pm
A democratic process does not ensure a wise decision or policy. Alcibiadies was elected general by the Athenian asssembly, and he brought about the final destruction of the Athenian system.

I don't dispute or lament the democratic processes (where they exist) in South America - only the poor choices that have resulted over the past century.
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Dec, 2006 04:36 pm
Good point, George.

I won't dispute Chavez's easy victory.

I am sure all those army batallions who helped rural voters reach their polling booths were acting only to promote a high turnout.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Dec, 2006 05:08 pm
If I'm not mistaken Chavez' term of office is another six years. That will be long enough for him to spend most of the extraordinary petroleum money and to reduce the national oil company to an incompetent haven for his cronies. What will he do when the money runs out? More importantly, what will the unfortunate Venezuela do?
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Dec, 2006 05:25 pm
I had lunch yesterday with a pollster who went to Venezuela for the elections as part of a UN observer group.
His comments:
- Elections were rigged, in the old Mexican PRI style. Not much by stealing votes from the opposition, a lot by balooning Chavez's numbers (schemes known as "the carrousel", "the crazy mouse" and the "carriage").
- Without taking into account this schemes, Chavez won easily, anyway, by at least 10 percentage points.
- Opposition backed opinion polls -Rosales claimed a "technical tie"- were made with old methods, and were not reliable. Even then, the "technical tie" was not such: a 6 points difference favoring Chávez.
- Most opposers were stubborn about "having won" even if they knew they had lost. Rosales was finally convinced to concede by foreign advisors.
- The Venezuelan voter dilemma was harsh: populist authoritarian left or equally populist right, with an authoritarian leader. Paranoia was visible in both sides.
-Chávez will probably be in the helm for the next 12 years.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Dec, 2006 05:34 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
If I'm not mistaken Chavez' term of office is another six years. That will be long enough for him to spend most of the extraordinary petroleum money and to reduce the national oil company to an incompetent haven for his cronies. What will he do when the money runs out? More importantly, what will the unfortunate Venezuela do?


... and the Bolivar is not exactly an international reserve currency, so that takes away some further options that are available to e.g. the US or Europe.

That aside, I can totally understand the poor who voted for Chavez. It's easy to call support for the poor "populism" if you can afford food, housing and health care, but if you're actually in their shoes you'll probably view it as genuine help.

Same phenomenon as seen in Nicaragua, really. Nothing to do with left-right, either.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Dec, 2006 03:41 pm
Blatham, Amigo and everyone,

There's a lengthy, but fascinating piece on Venezuela and Chavezism in openDemocracy. It makes a brave, if probably doomed, effort at fact-checking a number of basic tenets of international pro- and anti-Chavez journalism:

Bolivarian myths and legends
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Dec, 2006 04:03 pm
Thanks, nimh. I've printed it out and will get back when read.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Dec, 2006 09:03 pm
old europe wrote:
I can totally understand the poor who voted for Chavez. It's easy to call support for the poor "populism" if you can afford food, housing and health care, but if you're actually in their shoes you'll probably view it as genuine help.

Same phenomenon as seen in Nicaragua, really. Nothing to do with left-right, either.


Venezuela isn't all that poor. Moreover, the support for such authoritarian bullies - when they do succeed in taking power - doesn't always come just from the poor. It is worth a little reflection on the several other prominent examples history offers in this area.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Dec, 2006 10:02 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
It is worth a little reflection on the several other prominent examples history offers in this area.


I'm at a loss. Please elaborate.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Dec, 2006 10:43 pm
Venezuela may not be poor, but read the following from the Department of State.

SAFETY AND SECURITY: Violent crime in Venezuela has spiked in recent months. The country has the highest per-capita murder rate in the world. Armed robberies take place in broad daylight throughout the city, including areas generally presumed safe and frequented by tourists. Well armed criminal gangs operate with impunity, often setting up fake police checkpoints. Kidnapping is a particularly serious problem, with more than 1,000 reported during the past year alone.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Dec, 2006 06:10 am
Quote:
Moreover, the support for such authoritarian bullies - when they do succeed in taking power - doesn't always come just from the poor. It is worth a little reflection on the several other prominent examples history offers in this area.


I'm not certain, but I think george is referring to the longstanding involvement of the CIA in the region, often in the service of non-poor corporate interests...

Quote:
The fact that the UFCO relied so heavily on manipulation of land use rights in order to maintain their market dominance had a number of long term consequences for the region. For the company to maintain its unequal land holdings it often required government concessions. And this in turn meant that the company had to be politically involved in the region even though it was an American company.

UFCO had a mixed record on promoting the development of the nations in which it operated. In Central America, the Company built extensive railroads and ports and provided employment and transportation. UFCO also created numerous schools for the people who lived and worked on Company land. On the other hand, it allowed vast tracts of land under its ownership to remain uncultivated and, in Guatemala and elsewhere, it discouraged the government from building highways, which would lessen the profitable transportation monopoly of the railroads under its control.

The Guatemalan government of Colonel Jacobo Arbenz Guzmán was toppled by covert action of the United States government in 1954, after the directors of UFCO had lobbied to convince the Truman and Eisenhower administrations that Colonel Arbenz intended to align Guatemala with the Soviet bloc. Besides the disputed issue of Arbenz's allegiance to Communism, the directors of UFCO may have feared Arbenz's stated intention of purchasing uncultivated land from the company (at the value declared in tax returns) and redistributing it among Native American peasants. The American Secretary of State John Foster Dulles was an avowed opponent of Communism whose law firm had represented United Fruit. His brother Allen Dulles was the director of the CIA. The brother of the Assistant Secretary of State for InterAmerican Affairs John Moors Cabot had once been president of United Fruit. (Though, the U.S. had harbored suspicions about Arbenz prior to the Dulles brothers' appointments. [1]) Arbenz's government was overthrown by Guatemalan army officers invading from Honduras, with assistance from the CIA (See Operation PBSUCCESS).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Fruit_Company

The PR campaign covering all this up was run by Edward Bernays (see "The Father of Spin")

And in the present? Tom DeLay, Abramoff and Saipan sweatshops...
http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/05/09/real.delay/
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Dec, 2006 03:32 pm
old europe wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
It is worth a little reflection on the several other prominent examples history offers in this area.


I'm at a loss. Please elaborate.


Authoritarian bullies like Chavez, and the many who preceded him, from Cromwell to Robspierre. Lenin, Stalin, Mussolini, Hitler and the South American variants like Vargas, Peron, Stroessner, etc. usually proclaim themselves the due representatives of the people and the downtrodden, but they generally come to power with the aid and complicity of existing institutions or fragments of them (Army, Unions) and the actions of an organized revolutionary cadre. Most have been successful = albeit briefly - in gaining a broad measure of voluntary public support, but they rapidly supplement it with coercion and force. Interestingly most have been successful in duping hopeful foreign observers into belief in their rhetoric for a while, but usually the local poor are among the first to figure out the trufh that they have instead lost their freedom.

A well-known New York Times reporter won a Pulitzer prize for the stories he wrote in the mid 1930s praising the success of the Soviet collectivization of agriculture in Ukraine - while the Ukranian pesants themselves starved by the millions.
0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Dec, 2006 11:47 pm
George is a finger pointer extraordinaire but mirrors, he abhors.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 03:55 pm
How phucking appropriate is it that Pinochet (indicted for murder, torture, corruption, etc) dies on International Human Rights Day.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 04:29 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
old europe wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
It is worth a little reflection on the several other prominent examples history offers in this area.


I'm at a loss. Please elaborate.


Authoritarian bullies like Chavez, and the many who preceded him, from Cromwell to Robspierre. Lenin, Stalin, Mussolini, Hitler and the South American variants like Vargas, Peron, Stroessner, etc. usually proclaim themselves the due representatives of the people and the downtrodden, but they generally come to power with the aid and complicity of existing institutions or fragments of them (Army, Unions) and the actions of an organized revolutionary cadre. Most have been successful = albeit briefly - in gaining a broad measure of voluntary public support, but they rapidly supplement it with coercion and force. Interestingly most have been successful in duping hopeful foreign observers into belief in their rhetoric for a while, but usually the local poor are among the first to figure out the trufh that they have instead lost their freedom.

A well-known New York Times reporter won a Pulitzer prize for the stories he wrote in the mid 1930s praising the success of the Soviet collectivization of agriculture in Ukraine - while the Ukranian pesants themselves starved by the millions.


I see what you mean. I can see the basis of your argument that democratically elected leaders may be elected by the majority of the people, but may not be in the people's best interest. However, this is a very slippery slope. Sure, history points to numerous examples where a majority has supported a leader that was, in the longer run, devastating for the country.
On the other hand, history offers just as many examples of some exterior power being certain to know better what would be in the best interest of a certain country/people/nation, with equally devastating results for the country.

Your example of the Soviet collectivization is a very interesting example in that regard, as it shows some external expert offering his opinion about the "best interest of the people". You'll see the irony in you citing this example while stating your opinion about Chavez's benefits for the Venezuelans.

And then you have the interesting example of Nicaragua, where someone who had been in power in the past, with the results well-known to anyone, has just been re-elected by the majority. Here, too, it was the support of the poor that got Ortega elected. (I don't want to talk too much about Nicaragua here, but the election results clearly fly in the face of the argument that people vote in favour of a potentially authoritarian regimist because they have no clue about what would await them.)

Btw, your point that Venezuela, as a country, isn't that poor at all is noted. I just don't think it makes any difference when you have more than a third of the population living below the poverty line.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 06:34 pm
Well I doi get your, not-very-subtle inferences about Iraq.

What exactly is this "poverty line" that supposedly included one-third of Venezualans? Sounds like a meaningless cliche. What is your standard? Is democratic Brasil any better???

Our intervention in Nicaragua was done in the interests of our own security, and not directly for the people of Nicaragua (though we did accurately predict the adverse effect the experiment with authoritarian socialism would have on the economic development of Nicaragua. This unfortunate country today is the poorest in Central America - ironically it was more prosperous under Somosa, and arguably would have been better off with an orderly transition to democracy.

I was for a time directly involved in the tracking of Soviet weapons, equipment and money through Cuba, on to Nicaragua and later across the Gulf of Fonseca to El Salvador. This flow was substantial and continuous. It was the sustaining fuel of the revolutions, and when we finally cut it off, the revolutions in both countries died. El Salvador has recovered, both economically and politically, but Nicaragua remains the most backward country in Central America.

Poor Venezuela will likely suffer the same fate - despite the relatively great natural wealth of the country.

I hope you are not forgetting the colonial adventures of Britain, France, and even Germany in your criticisms of U.S. interventions. I certainly don't claim that ours have all been either well-conceoived or executed. However for undiluted oppression, exploitation, and avarice, we don't even come close to our European teachers.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Dec, 2006 07:01 pm
Venezuela is a basket case of the first order. Trying to identify it as a economic success doesn't even come close to describing their country.
0 Replies
 
 

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