74
   

Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
Deckland
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2009 08:00 pm
Quote:
The actual climate change in many locations has been relatively small and within the range of known natural variability. There is no compelling evidence that dangerous or unprecedented changes are underway.
snip snip
There is no evidence provided by the IPCC in its Fourth Assessment Report that the uncertainty can be formally resolved from first principles, statistical hypothesis testing or modeling exercises. Consequently, there will remain an unavoidable element of uncertainty as to the extent that humans are contributing to future climate change, and indeed whether or not such change is a good or bad thing.

I thought that was pretty straight forward .

http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/ISPM.pdf
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2009 09:47 pm
@ican711nm,
Yes, you list only 2 time periods where SI and AAGT both increased. I listed 10 time periods where they were the opposite.

Your conclusions are based on your cherry picking 2 time periods while ignoring every time period that contradicts your conclusion. Very poor science and very poor logic.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 May, 2009 10:25 pm
@Foxfyre,
Quote:
Okay, I have now read through the IPCC's "Summary for Policymakers" which, I presume is more than the pro-AGW advocates here have done since nobody seemed to be able to post a link to it when requested to do so.

Aren't you the snarky little one after not waiting any length of time before you get all snarky about no link.

Not only has it been mentioned on this thread before,
http://able2know.org/topic/44061-302
http://able2know.org/topic/44061-213
http://able2know.org/topic/44061-170

But you posted about it yourself Fox in another thread.
http://able2know.org/topic/26929-13#post-1143297
And you posted about it on this thread here
http://able2know.org/topic/44061-223#post-2518916

Some of the Links to the summary in this thread can be found in the following
http://able2know.org/topic/44061-456
http://able2know.org/topic/44061-474
http://able2know.org/topic/44061-456

I first posted a link to the summary in Aug of 2006
http://able2know.org/topic/44061-148#post-2239936

Since you now claim to have read the Summary Fox. Why don't you comment on it yourself instead of relying on what other people say?

0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 May, 2009 11:01 am
@Deckland,
Deckland wrote:

Quote:
The actual climate change in many locations has been relatively small and within the range of known natural variability. There is no compelling evidence that dangerous or unprecedented changes are underway.
snip snip
There is no evidence provided by the IPCC in its Fourth Assessment Report that the uncertainty can be formally resolved from first principles, statistical hypothesis testing or modeling exercises. Consequently, there will remain an unavoidable element of uncertainty as to the extent that humans are contributing to future climate change, and indeed whether or not such change is a good or bad thing.

I thought that was pretty straight forward .
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/ISPM.pdf


Yes me too. And there are other points that I think worthy of consideration too, not the least of which are those scientists who participated in both reports. ISPM acknowledges what the IPCC report says and concedes scientific points to the IPCC report. I believe the IPCC, however, has yet to recognize a single scientific theory, no matter how peer reviewed it might be, that contradicts the preferred doctrine or suggestion of imminent global disaster if IPCC recommendations are not implemented.

And I think that kind of dishonesty or non objectivity, more than anything else, makes the IPCC suspect.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 May, 2009 03:04 pm
@Foxfyre,
Do you read what you post Fox?

Quote:
The IPCC involves numerous experts in the preparation of its reports. However, chapter authors are frequently asked to summarize current controversies and disputes in which they themselves are professionally involved, which invites bias. Related to this is the problem that chapter authors may tend to favor their own published work by presenting it in a
prominent or flattering light. Nonetheless the resulting reports tend to be reasonably comprehensive and informative.


And you turn around and say this..
Quote:
I believe the IPCC, however, has yet to recognize a single scientific theory, no matter how peer reviewed it might be, that contradicts the preferred doctrine or suggestion of imminent global disaster if IPCC recommendations are not implemented.

So you believe something that contradicts what you posted earlier.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 May, 2009 03:41 pm
@parados,
Sorry I don't see how these two statements contradict each other in the least.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 May, 2009 04:38 pm
@Foxfyre,
If the IPCC included the contradictory science then how could they have failed to acknowledge it?
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 May, 2009 05:10 pm
@parados,
What contradictory science? All he is saying is that if there is any conflicting information, somebody involved in the research writes the report and can (make that do) put their own research/conclusions in a more flattering light. That appears to be the case in the full IPCC report. That gives you confidence that conclusions offered are unbiased and solidly good science? It doesn't give me that kind of confidence.

The real problem was cited here:
Quote:
A more compelling problem is that the Summary for Policymakers, attached to the IPCC Report, is produced, not by the scientific writers and reviewers, but by a process of negotiation among unnamed bureaucratic delegates from sponsoring governments. Their selection of material need not and may not reflect the priorities and intentions of the scientific community itself. Consequently it is useful to have independent experts read the underlying report and produce a summary of the most pertinent elements of the report.


And that is what I have been trying to mostly read--summaries offered by indpendent experts that are mostly ignored, disputed, and/or are invisible to the IPCC.

spendius
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 May, 2009 05:45 pm
@Foxfyre,
The only thing that is invisible to the IPCC is their own efforts to stoke the fires.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 May, 2009 07:58 pm
@Foxfyre,
Except that isn't what he is saying. If you read the IPCC you would know that he couldn't possibly be saying what you are. He is saying the authors include the conflicting data but have the opportunity to put their data in a flattering light. But even with the flattering light, the science is still included and quite fair.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 May, 2009 08:02 pm
@Foxfyre,
Quote:
And that is what I have been trying to mostly read--summaries offered by indpendent experts that are mostly ignored, disputed, and/or are invisible to the IPCC.

Since the IPCC deals with published science, I am not sure why you think they should include summaries that are not published as science.
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  -3  
Reply Fri 8 May, 2009 11:57 pm
Blotham( whose brain has been addled for years due to circulatory problems and lack of reasoning power) wrote a critique of Lomborg( the author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist). Thomas set him straight with the following---

All of this can be followed on www.lomborg.com as well as www.anti-lomborg.com . You may well be interested in reading it, blatham. The mistakes in your account of the facts, and the way they systematically end up being anti-Lomborg, look to me as if you have never read The Skeptical Environmentalist. It also looks as if you have never followed the debate about the book anywhere but from second- and third-hand accounts, published by somebody on the anti-Lomborg side."
0 Replies
 
genoves
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 9 May, 2009 12:09 am
Foxfyre wrote:

Okay, I have now read through the IPCC's "Summary for Policymakers" which, I presume is more than the pro-AGW advocates here have done since nobody seemed to be able to post a link to it when requested to do so. Did I understand all of it? No I didn't. I'm going make an educated guess than none of the other members fully understands all of it either, but it is my informed opinion that some would understand more of it than others would and much more than I did.

*********************************************************************

Foxfyre may remember that I posted references to the IPCC many times on this thread. Perhaps I did not give enough explanation for the postings. I will post the data from the IPCC again. However, I do assume that most people commenting on this thread are aware that the IPCC is considered to be the definitive commentary on the alleged "global warming".

The information is available on:

http://www.google.com/search?q=Wikipedia--IPCC+Report+on+Global+Warming&rlz=1I7DKUS_en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7
genoves
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 9 May, 2009 12:26 am
The IPCC Report, referenced above, shows:
*****************************************************************
Temperature and sea level rise for each SRES scenario family
There are six families of SRES Scenarios, and AR4 provides projected temperature and sea level rises (excluding future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow[5])for each scenario family.

Scenario B1
Best estimate temperature rise of 1.8 °C with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9 °C (3.2 °F with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.2 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [18 to 38 cm] (7 to 15 inches)
Scenario A1T
Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C (4.3 °F with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [20 to 45 cm] (8 to 18 inches)
Scenario B2
Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C (4.3 °F with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [20 to 43 cm] (8 to 17 inches)
Scenario A1B
Best estimate temperature rise of 2.8 °C with a likely range of 1.7 to 4.4 °C (5.0 °F with a likely range of 3.1 to 7.9 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [21 to 48 cm] (8 to 19 inches)
Scenario A2
Best estimate temperature rise of 3.4 °C with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.4 °C (6.1 °F with a likely range of 3.6 to 9.7 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [23 to 51 cm] (9 to 20 inches)
Scenario A1FI
Best estimate temperature rise of 4.0 °C with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 °C (7.2 °F with a likely range of 4.3 to 11.5 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [26 to 59 cm] (10 to 23 inches.
*******************************************************************

The SIX scenarios above show the predictions for the year 2100.

I do hope that it is clear to all( only rudimentary math skills needed) that the median sea level rise likely range falls between scenario B2 and Scenario A1B.

This means, then, that the IPCC predicts that the sea level rise will be between 8 and 18 inches by 2100.

This is a level which is almost inconsequential.

Lomborg reports that " since 1860, we have experienced a sea-level rise of about a foot, yet this has clearly not caused major sea-level disruptions:.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 May, 2009 07:33 am
@genoves,
Foxfire doesn't remember that at all because she claimed to have never heard of the IPCC Summary for Policymakers before it was mentioned this week.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 May, 2009 09:44 am
@parados,
Well while it is not true that I was unfamiliar with the IPCC--neither you nor genoves or anybody else seems to have a good grasp on what I have claimed, what I know, what I remember, what I think etc. etc. etc.--it is true that the IPCC Summary for Policymakers was not on my radar. It had not registered on me that it was separate from the IPCC report. Now that I have been advised of what an unscientific and politically motived document it is, however, it certainly is on my radar and I will be much more attentive to anything quoted from it.

Thanks to MJ for suggesting that I educate myself on that document.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 May, 2009 09:54 am
@parados,
parados wrote:

Except that isn't what he is saying. If you read the IPCC you would know that he couldn't possibly be saying what you are. He is saying the authors include the conflicting data but have the opportunity to put their data in a flattering light. But even with the flattering light, the science is still included and quite fair.


He (they) did not say that the science is still included and quite fair. The ISPN said that the process invited bias but....and I quote verbatime again: "Nonetheless the resulting reports tend to be reasonably comprehensive and informative. Some research that contradicts the hypothesis of greenhouse gas-induced warming is under-represented, and some controversies are treated in a one-sided way, but the reports still merit close attention. " "Tend to be" is quite different from a suggestion that ALL science is there and fairly represented. My translation of that is that the summaries don't completely suck as there is some competent science represented, but there is a problem with bias. But that is the IPCC report itself.

There is no attempt by the ISPN to suggest that the Summary for Policymakers is anything other than a political document.
parados
 
  2  
Reply Sat 9 May, 2009 10:26 am
@Foxfyre,
YOu said.. and I quote you directly here Fox
Quote:
I believe the IPCC, however, has yet to recognize a single scientific theory, no matter how peer reviewed it might be, that contradicts the preferred doctrine or suggestion of imminent global disaster if IPCC recommendations are not implemented.

Now, compare your statement to what was said..
Quote:
Nonetheless the resulting reports tend to be reasonably comprehensive and informative. Some research that contradicts the hypothesis of greenhouse gas-induced warming is under-represented, and some controversies are treated in a one-sided way, but the reports still merit close attention.

Under-represented is NOT the same thing as not recognized.

The statement you are quoting directly contradicts what you said you believe. You are free to believe whatever the hell you want to Fox but don't expect others to believe it when you quote things that undermine what you said you believe.
Foxfyre
 
  0  
Reply Sat 9 May, 2009 10:34 am
@parados,
When I wrote the first statement you quoted here, I had not yet learned the the Summary for Policymakers was an entirely different document from the full IPCC report and was not done by the same people who wrote the IPCC report(s). In other words I had never made a distinction between information cited from these two documents.

So I will revise and extend my previous remarks to include acknowledgment that those writing the IPCC report have not always agreed on conclusions, but, although there is bias in the final written analyses, there is acknowledgment of the disagreements. I think it might be more accurate if I had said the Summary for Policymakers has yet to recognize a signle scientific theory.....that contradicts......etc.

I remain that convinced that neither the full IPCC report nor the Summary for Policymakers provides serious consideration of the opinion of any scientist not directly involved in the IPCC project, however. Would you have a problem with that statement?
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Sat 9 May, 2009 10:53 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

When I wrote the first statement you quoted here, I had not yet learned the the Summary for Policymakers was an entirely different document from the full IPCC report and was not done by the same people who wrote the IPCC report(s). In other words I had never made a distinction between information cited from these two documents.


Are you serious? I mean, this was discussed in this thread since both papers are out ... and you responded frequently ...
And that wasn't yesterday. Or last year. Or ...
 

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