Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

Abstract

Continuously operating Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) base stations in South Africa show a spatially coherent vertical displacement. While one hypothesis attributes this vertical motion to crustal deformation from mantle flow and dynamic topography (Hammond et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jb022355), we propose an alternative explanation. Our evidence suggests that land water loss from multiple droughts is a major driver of the observed uplift. In this study, we analyze daily Global Positioning System (GPS) height time series from 2000 to 2021. We use singular spectral analysis (SSA) to separate long-term trends and annual and semi-annual signals from noise. The processed time series were inverted into water mass loading on a uniform grid, with the Earth's crust's rheological properties defined by the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM). Our experimental approach show that a 2
2
grid resolution provides suitable results for most of South Africa. The GPS-derived total water storage change reconcile well with a GRACE-assimilated solution and a hydrological model at the monthly scale across different provinces, showing correlations of up to 90% and 94%, respectively. The long-term trend averaged over the country shows a considerable correlation of 46% and 53%, respectively. These long-term total water storage trends provide strong evidence that the observed land uplift in South Africa is primarily of hydrological origin.

Two US scientific associations put out a call on Friday for submissions for research that would have been used in the National Climate Assessment (NCA) report after President Donald Trump effectively canceled it.

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the American Geophysical Union (AGU) said the research they were calling for would be to "sustain the momentum" of the next report.

"We are filling in a gap in the scientific process," AGU President Brandon Jones said. "It's more about ensuring that science continues."

The NCA is a comprehensive report on the impacts of climate change in the United States. The last report came out in 2023 when the effects of extreme weather incurred record costs of over $1 billion (€900 million).

The next report is due to come out in 2027.

Abstract

Climate injustice persists as those least responsible often bear the greatest impacts, both between and within countries. Here we show how GHG emissions from consumption and investments attributable to the wealthiest population groups have disproportionately influenced present-day climate change. We link emissions inequality over the period 1990–2020 to regional climate extremes using an emulator-based framework. We find that two-thirds (one-fifth) of warming is attributable to the wealthiest 10% (1%), meaning that individual contributions are 6.5 (20) times the average per capita contribution. For extreme events, the top 10% (1%) contributed 7 (26) times the average to increases in monthly 1-in-100-year heat extremes globally and 6 (17) times more to Amazon droughts. Emissions from the wealthiest 10% in the United States and China led to a two- to threefold increase in heat extremes across vulnerable regions. Quantifying the link between wealth disparities and climate impacts can assist in the discourse on climate equity and justice.

A Climate Central analysis of the past five years (2020-2024)

KEY FACTS

● Extreme heat presents dangerous risks to global maternal health and birth outcomes, and it’s becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change.

● Climate Central analyzed daily temperatures during the past five years (2020 to 2024)
in 247 countries, territories, and dependencies and 940 global cities to count the number of pregnancy heat-risk days. Pregnancy heat-risk days have maximum temperatures warmer than 95% of temperatures observed at a given location — a threshold associated with an increased risk of preterm birth.

● During 2020 to 2024, nearly one-third of analyzed countries (78 out of 247) experienced at least one additional month’s worth of pregnancy heat-risk days on average annually due to climate change.

● In most countries (222), climate change at least doubled the average annual number of pregnancy heat-risk days experienced during the past five years, compared to a world without climate change.

● The greatest increases in pregnancy heat-risk days due to climate change over the past five years occurred primarily in developing regions with limited access to healthcare — most notably in the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America, the Pacific Islands, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.