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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
hingehead
 
  2  
Reply Sun 20 Apr, 2025 09:23 pm
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/88/70/ed/8870edce7ca5b2024f2152214c13d07d.jpg
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Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Mon 21 Apr, 2025 11:43 pm
Researchers find 89% of people around the world want more to be done, but mistakenly assume their peers do not

‘Spiral of silence’: climate action is very popular, so why don’t people realise it?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 Apr, 2025 12:19 am
Scientists say they can calculate the cost of oil giants’ role in climate change.
They hope this sort of model could result in court rulings that make polluters pay. The oil and gas industry contests the science.

Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Apr, 2025 11:55 am
Donald Trump’s administration has dismissed all contributors to the US government’s flagship study on how to prepare for climate change impacts, prompting strong criticism from experts over a “senseless” move.

Trump dismisses contributors to key US report on climate crisis preparedness
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Apr, 2025 09:02 am
For a long time, processes in the Earth's mantle were considered the most likely cause of the uplift of South Africa's land surface. A study now casts doubt on this. Instead, humans are responsible.

‘Our findings suggest that land water loss due to multiple droughts is a major factor in the observed uplift,’ the authors write in their study.

One possible explanation could be that the earth's crust is being squeezed by the weight of groundwater and surface water. If these bodies of water dry out due to periods of drought, for example, the land mass bulges in the affected areas.

GNSS Observations of the Land Uplift in South Africa: Implications for Water Mass Loss
Quote:
Abstract

Continuously operating Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) base stations in South Africa show a spatially coherent vertical displacement. While one hypothesis attributes this vertical motion to crustal deformation from mantle flow and dynamic topography (Hammond et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jb022355), we propose an alternative explanation. Our evidence suggests that land water loss from multiple droughts is a major driver of the observed uplift. In this study, we analyze daily Global Positioning System (GPS) height time series from 2000 to 2021. We use singular spectral analysis (SSA) to separate long-term trends and annual and semi-annual signals from noise. The processed time series were inverted into water mass loading on a uniform grid, with the Earth's crust's rheological properties defined by the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM). Our experimental approach show that a 2
2
grid resolution provides suitable results for most of South Africa. The GPS-derived total water storage change reconcile well with a GRACE-assimilated solution and a hydrological model at the monthly scale across different provinces, showing correlations of up to 90% and 94%, respectively. The long-term trend averaged over the country shows a considerable correlation of 46% and 53%, respectively. These long-term total water storage trends provide strong evidence that the observed land uplift in South Africa is primarily of hydrological origin.
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thack45
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Apr, 2025 05:25 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
I particularly liked this headline from Vox:

Trump boots climate scientists from climate science report
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 May, 2025 02:04 pm
The White House has dismissed scientists working on a report on the impacts of climate change in the US. Now two scientific organizations are calling for research anyway.

Scientists compile US climate report as Trump fires authors
Quote:
Two US scientific associations put out a call on Friday for submissions for research that would have been used in the National Climate Assessment (NCA) report after President Donald Trump effectively canceled it.

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the American Geophysical Union (AGU) said the research they were calling for would be to "sustain the momentum" of the next report.

"We are filling in a gap in the scientific process," AGU President Brandon Jones said. "It's more about ensuring that science continues."

The NCA is a comprehensive report on the impacts of climate change in the United States. The last report came out in 2023 when the effects of extreme weather incurred record costs of over $1 billion (€900 million).

The next report is due to come out in 2027.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 8 May, 2025 08:24 am
Wealthy people have a larger carbon footprint, that is well known.

Researchers have now quantified how much larger this is in a study published in the journal ‘Nature Climate Change’: According to the study, the richest ten per cent of the world's population are responsible for two thirds of global warming since 1990.

‘The ecological footprints of the richest people are directly linked to climate impacts,’ study leader Sarah Schöngart, a scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH), told the AFP news agency.

According to the analysis, the richest one per cent of the world's population contributed 26 times more to heatwaves of the century than the global average. Emissions from the wealthiest ten per cent in China and the United States, which together are responsible for almost half of global carbon pollution, each led to a two- to three-fold increase in heat extremes.

High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide
Quote:
Abstract

Climate injustice persists as those least responsible often bear the greatest impacts, both between and within countries. Here we show how GHG emissions from consumption and investments attributable to the wealthiest population groups have disproportionately influenced present-day climate change. We link emissions inequality over the period 1990–2020 to regional climate extremes using an emulator-based framework. We find that two-thirds (one-fifth) of warming is attributable to the wealthiest 10% (1%), meaning that individual contributions are 6.5 (20) times the average per capita contribution. For extreme events, the top 10% (1%) contributed 7 (26) times the average to increases in monthly 1-in-100-year heat extremes globally and 6 (17) times more to Amazon droughts. Emissions from the wealthiest 10% in the United States and China led to a two- to threefold increase in heat extremes across vulnerable regions. Quantifying the link between wealth disparities and climate impacts can assist in the discourse on climate equity and justice.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Mon 12 May, 2025 12:29 am
Fourth most important food crop in peril as Latin America and Caribbean suffer from slow-onset climate disaster.

Climate crisis threatens the banana, the world’s most popular fruit, research shows
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Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 14 May, 2025 06:31 am
The climate crisis also means more risks for pregnant women and their unborn children. According to the report, the number of hot days that are dangerous for them is far higher almost everywhere in the world than it would be without global warming. This is according to a report by the non-profit US organisation Climate Central.

Climate change increasing pregnancy risks around the world due to extreme heat
Quote:
A Climate Central analysis of the past five years (2020-2024)

KEY FACTS

● Extreme heat presents dangerous risks to global maternal health and birth outcomes, and it’s becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change.

● Climate Central analyzed daily temperatures during the past five years (2020 to 2024)
in 247 countries, territories, and dependencies and 940 global cities to count the number of pregnancy heat-risk days. Pregnancy heat-risk days have maximum temperatures warmer than 95% of temperatures observed at a given location — a threshold associated with an increased risk of preterm birth.

● During 2020 to 2024, nearly one-third of analyzed countries (78 out of 247) experienced at least one additional month’s worth of pregnancy heat-risk days on average annually due to climate change.

● In most countries (222), climate change at least doubled the average annual number of pregnancy heat-risk days experienced during the past five years, compared to a world without climate change.

● The greatest increases in pregnancy heat-risk days due to climate change over the past five years occurred primarily in developing regions with limited access to healthcare — most notably in the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America, the Pacific Islands, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.

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Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 21 May, 2025 04:44 am
The melting of the polar ice caps is causing sea levels to rise - a rise of several metres can probably no longer be prevented with the current rate of warming. Researchers are responding with a clear warning.

Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets
Quote:
Abstract

Mass loss from ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica has quadrupled since the 1990s and now represents the dominant source of global mean sea-level rise from the cryosphere. This has raised concerns about their future stability and focussed attention on the global mean temperature thresholds that might trigger more rapid retreat or even collapse, with renewed calls to meet the more ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement and limit warming to +1.5 °C above pre-industrial. Here we synthesise multiple lines of evidence to show that +1.5 °C is too high and that even current climate forcing (+1.2 °C), if sustained, is likely to generate several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries, causing extensive loss and damage to coastal populations and challenging the implementation of adaptation measures. To avoid this requires a global mean temperature that is cooler than present and which we hypothesise to be closer to +1 °C above pre-industrial, possibly even lower, but further work is urgently required to more precisely determine a ‘safe limit’ for ice sheets.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Thu 22 May, 2025 10:13 am
The Earth is warming up and the sea ice in the Southern Ocean is shrinking. Penguins are being badly affected by this, although their droppings are probably counteracting the melting, at least a little.

Penguin guano is an important source of climate-relevant aerosol particles in Antarctica
Quote:
Abstract

Gaseous ammonia, while influential in atmospheric processes, is critically underrepresented in atmospheric measurements. This limits our understanding of key climate-relevant processes, such as new particle formation, particularly in remote regions. Here, we present highly sensitive, online observations of gaseous ammonia from a coastal site in Antarctica, which allows us to constrain the mechanism of new particle formation in this region in unprecedented detail. Our observations show that penguin colonies are a large source of ammonia in coastal Antarctica, whereas ammonia originating from the Southern Ocean is, in comparison, negligible. In conjunction with sulfur compounds sourced from oceanic microbiology, ammonia initiates new particle formation and is an important source of cloud condensation nuclei. Dimethylamine, likely originating from penguin guano, also participates in the initial steps of particle formation, effectively boosting particle formation rates up to 10000 times. These findings emphasize the importance of ecosystem processes from penguin/bird colonies and oceanic phytoplankton/bacteria on climate-relevant aerosol processes in coastal Antarctica. This demonstrates an important connection between ecosystem and atmospheric processes that impact the Antarctic climate, which is crucial given the current rate of environmental changes in the region.


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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 May, 2025 07:43 am
World faces new danger of ‘economic denial’ in climate fight, Cop30 head says
Quote:
André Corrêa do Lago says ‘answers have to come from the economy’ as climate policies trigger populist-fuelled backlash

The world is facing a new form of climate denial – not the dismissal of climate science, but a concerted attack on the idea that the economy can be reorganised to fight the crisis, the president of global climate talks has warned.

André Corrêa do Lago, the veteran Brazilian diplomat who will direct this year’s UN summit, Cop30, believes his biggest job will be to counter the attempt from some vested interests to prevent climate policies aimed at shifting the global economy to a low-carbon footing.

“There is a new kind of opposition to climate action. We are facing a discredit of climate policies. I don’t think we are facing climate denial,” he said, referring to the increasingly desperate attempts to pretend there is no consensus on climate science that have plagued climate action for the past 30 years. “It’s not a scientific denial, it’s an economic denial.”

This economic denial could be just as dangerous and cause as much delay as repeated attempts to deny climate science in previous years, he warned in an exclusive interview with the Guardian.

As the climate crisis has gathered pace, temperatures have risen and the effects of extreme weather have become more obvious, scientists have been able to draw ever more clearly the links between greenhouse gas emissions and our impacts on the planet. So the argument has shifted, Corrêa do Lago believes, from undermining or misrepresenting the science to attempts to counter climate policy.

“It is not possible to have [scientific] denialism at this stage, after everything that has happened in recent years. So there is a migration from scientific denial to a denial that economic measures against climate change can be good for the economy and for people.”

The rise of populist politicians around the world has fuelled a backlash against climate policy, most clearly seen in the presidency of Donald Trump in the US, where he has set about cancelling policies intended to boost renewable energy and cut greenhouse gases, and dismantling all forms of government-sponsored climate-related institutions, including scientific research labs.

Corrêa do Lago wants to spur a new global effort to persuade people that remodelling the economy away from a reliance on fossil fuels and towards a clean energy future will reap benefits for all people. “The new populism is trying to show [that tackling the climate crisis does not work],” he said. “It’s the turn of those who believe in the fight against climate change to show and to prove that fighting climate change is possible, and that it can come with economic advantages and with a better quality of life.”

Corrêa do Lago is an economist by training – the youngest of five brothers, all of whom became economists. “My mother was horrified with our lack of originality,” he joked.

He has been a career diplomat, having joined Brazil’s foreign service in 1983 and serving previously as ambassador to India and Japan. He is also a veteran of the Cop talks – the annual “conference of the parties”, which will take place this year in Belém, near the mouth of the Amazon, in November.

“Most of the answers have to come from the economy,” said Corrêa do Lago. “Because we have now enough science, enough demonstration of how climate change can affect people’s lives. Now we need answers [in the form of policy measures]. We need economists to rally.”
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