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Global warming overblown?

 
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 19 Dec, 2004 05:16 pm
Okay I read the whole blurb and don't see a problem Walter. He didn't quote everything from the press release, its true, but he quoted the part that was necessary to his thesis.

I am still not sure what Thompson means by "tweaking the system?'. Do you know for sure? The press release doesn't elaborate or explain. It is possible Melloy didn't know either and decided not to deal with it. Otherwise he is critical of Senator McCain and President Bush in the article as well and he is a prolific writer on junk science in general and in particular where it comes to global warming so his slant isn't surprising.

I guess what I'm saying is, I see your point, but I think you may be making more of it than what is there. I stand ready to be convinced however. Smile
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Dec, 2004 08:32 pm
Just having a bit of fun here, folks Smile


Save the Whales? What About the Japanese?

December 19, 2004

BY MARK STEYN SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST

Professor Lloyd Peck of the British Antarctic Survey is worried about -- stop me if you've heard this one before -- global warming. For this year's Christmas lecture at the Royal Institution in London, he'll be warning that the merest smidgenette of an increase in temperature in the south polar seabed will lead to the loss of a zillion species. As the oceans warm, the ice shelves that extend from the polar depths into the sub-Antarctic light will shrink, and the thick mats of algae on their underside will vanish, and the billions of tiny krill that feed on them will perish, and pretty soon, up at the scenic end of the food chain, all those cute seals and penguins and whales will be gone.

And all this will happen if the temperature goes up two degrees, from butt-numbingly freezing to marginally less butt-numbingly freezing. "It is going to be really unpleasant," Professor Peck tells Britain's Guardian newspaper, globally warming to his theme. "We are going to lose things -- we just don't know how much."

Each to his own. I like whales. I spend a fair bit of time on the North Shore of the St. Lawrence and around the Saguenay fjord in Quebec, and it would certainly be a duller place without the whales gaily plashing hither and yon. But what I find curious about this sort of thing is that Professor Peck is supposed to be a scientist and the newspaper reporting his views is famously rational. A month ago, for example, the Guardian -- like most of the British, and European, and global media, and a big chunk of the American press, too -- was mocking the kind of folks who'd re-elected George W. Bush -- "fundamentalists" from "Jesusland," men of faith, not science, many of them from jurisdictions where the school boards are packed with creationists who look askance at Darwin, evolution and the like.

Evolution posits that species will come and go: Some die out, some survive and evolve. I don't regard myself as anything terribly special but in a typical year just mooching around the Eastern Seaboard I'm exposed to temperatures from around 98 degrees to 45 below freezing, in the lower part of which range I evolve into my long underwear. Maybe if the Antarctic food chain is incapable of evolving to cope with a two-degree increase in temperature across many decades it isn't meant to survive.

Science tells us that extinction is a fact of life, and that nature is never still. Long before the Industrial Revolution, long before the first lardbuttus Americanus got into his primitive four-miles-per-gallon SUV to head to the mall for the world's first cheeseburger, there were dramatic fluctuations in climate wiping out a ton of stuff. Yet scientists and their cheerleaders, the hyper-rationalists of the western media, have signed on to the idea that evolution should cease and the world should be frozen -- literally, in the case of Professor Peck and his beloved algae -- in some unchanging Edenic state.

Well, good luck to him. If I see a guy with a "Save the algae" collecting box, I'm happy to chip in five bucks. But, at the same time as the Royal Institute and the eco-left and all the other progressive thinkers are in a mass panic at the thought of the krill having to adjust his way of life, they're positively insouciant about massive changes to our own habitat. You're not entirely cool with gay marriage? Or the U.N. as a world government in embryo? Tough, shrugs the Guardian. Stuff happens, things change, adapt or die.

Perhaps he'll give us some hard numbers in his lecture but, insofar as I can tell, Professor Peck's doomsday scenario depends on a lot of "ifs." In the course of several decades, the temperature might indeed increase sufficiently, and that might reduce the algae, and that might diminish by several billion the number of krill, and that might impact the lifestyle of the Antarctic penguin by, oh, 2050, 2060. But, on the other hand, somebody (most likely an American) might have invented a thing the size of the Palm Pilot you staple to the seabed that automatically lowers the temperature by two degrees and we'll have wall-to-wall algae. Who can say?

What we do know for certain is that the krill's chances of survival are a lot greater than, say, the Italians, or the Germans, or the Japanese, Russians, Greeks and Spaniards, all of whom will be in steep population decline long before the Antarctic krill. By 2025, one in every three Japanese will be over 65, and that statistic depends on the two out of three who aren't over 65 sticking around to pay the tax bills required to support the biggest geriatric population in history.

Does the impending extinction of the Japanese and Russians not distress anyone? How about the Italians? They gave us the Sistine Chapel, the Mona Lisa, Gina Lollobrigida, linguine, tagliatelle, fusilli . . . If you're in your scuba suit down on the ice shelf dining with the krill and you say you'd like your algae al dente in a carbonara sauce, they'll give you a blank look. Billions of years on Earth and all they've got is the same set menu they started out with. But try and rouse the progressive mind to a "Save the Italians" campaign and you'll get nowhere. Luigi isn't as important as algae, even though he too is a victim of profound environmental changes: globally warmed by Euro-welfare, he no longer feels the need to breed.

And, if he doesn't care if he survives, why should the penguins and the krill feel any differently? Given the choice between the krill's hypothetically impending extinction and their own impending extinction already under way, Europeans would apparently rather fret about the denizens of the deep. Even G.K. Chesterton, who famously observed that once man has ceased to believe in God he'll believe in anything, might have marveled at how swift the decay from post-Christian to post-evolutionary. Like the old song says: What's it all about -- algae?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Dec, 2004 02:13 am
Quote:
Aliens Cause Global Warming

A lecture by Michael Crichton
Caltech Michelin Lecture
January 17, 2003




My topic today sounds humorous but unfortunately I am serious. I am going to argue that extraterrestrials lie behind global warming. Or to speak more precisely, I will argue that a belief in extraterrestrials has paved the way, in a progression of steps, to a belief in global warming. Charting this progression of belief will be my task today.

Let me say at once that I have no desire to discourage anyone from believing in either extraterrestrials or global warming. That would be quite impossible to do. Rather, I want to discuss the history of several widely-publicized beliefs and to point to what I consider an emerging crisis in the whole enterprise of science-namely the increasingly uneasy relationship between hard science and public policy.


Full text
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Einherjar
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Dec, 2004 03:03 am
Are you in agreement with that article?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Dec, 2004 03:06 am
Three days before Christmas I nearly agree with everything :wink:

No, actually I was only referring to JustWonders' "Just having a bit of fun here, folks"
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Dec, 2004 08:08 am
Walter, are you one who really, really loves Christmas?
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cicerone imposter
 
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Reply Tue 21 Dec, 2004 10:24 am
JustWonders, Thanks for sharing your post. It's especially interesting to me because I'll be visiting Antarctica next month, and I've been reading about the fauna and flora of that region. The point about krill is so true; that it's the beginning of the food chain for larger animals - including whales. The other aspect of your post about cycles is also true; this planet continues to evolve beyond the control of humans. During the 200 million years of this planet, it has gone through several ice ages, and global warming is the other extreme. What will survive is anybody's guess.
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cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Dec, 2004 10:41 am
I definitely believe "global warming" is overblown. We simply don't have enough recorded weather history to make a proper judgement. This is "strawman" drawn up by environmentalists and other whack jobs intent upon destroying modern society.

Just wait until these pricks succeed and then suddenly realize they have no survival skills other than going to 7/11 for nachos and a slurpee.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Dec, 2004 11:01 am
The fact of the matter is, 7/11 has very good coffee. Wink
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McTag
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Jan, 2005 02:55 pm
Okay holidays over, back to business.

This is so important I'm posting it twice.
The build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the main so-called greenhouse gas at the moment, has had only a small effect on overall temperature increase, on average 0.5 degrees. This has caused some to doubt the science. "Greenhouse gases up, temperature only marginally up, why worry? It may be due to something else".

Well, this explains why the temperature rise has been modest, up to now, and why the overall trend has been hidden.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_prog_summary.shtml
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cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Jan, 2005 03:12 pm
Even my dentist thought that the tsunami was a weather related event. Argh! Ignorance knows no bounds.
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Clary
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Jan, 2005 10:55 am
We had a documentary on Global Dimming the other day, which seems to be as dangerous as the warming, whether it's left alone (particulates) or dealt with (enhanced global warming). 10 degree rise by end of century...
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Jan, 2005 01:24 pm
I would still like to see an opinion written by a scientist who's continued funding is not contingent on the existence of human-caused global warming expressing that human activity is having any kind of significant effect on global climate. So far, I have been unable to come up with one and I honestly have looked.
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McTag
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Jan, 2005 02:42 pm
You can read about it here, Foxy. There is a major new report out tomorrow, apparently, which should get in all the big papers:

The report says this point will be two degrees centigrade above the average world temperature prevailing in 1750 before the industrial revolution, when human activities - mainly the production of waste gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), which retain the sun's heat in the atmosphere - first started to affect the climate. But it points out that global average temperature has already risen by 0.8 degrees since then, with more rises already in the pipeline - so the world has little more than a single degree of temperature latitude before the crucial point is reached.
More ominously still, it assesses the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere after which the two-degree rise will become inevitable, and says it will be 400 parts per million by volume (ppm) of CO2.
The current level is 379ppm, and rising by more than 2ppm annually - so it is likely that the vital 400ppm threshold will be crossed in just 10 years' time, or even less (although the two-degree temperature rise might take longer to come into effect).
"There is an ecological timebomb ticking away," said Stephen Byers, the former transport secretary, who co-chaired the task force that produced the report with the US Republican senator Olympia Snowe. It was assembled by the Institute for Public Policy Research in the UK, the Centre for American Progress in the US, and The Australia Institute.The group's chief scientific adviser is Dr Rakendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The report urges all the G8 countries to agree to generate a quarter of their electricity from renewable sources by 2025, and to double their research spending on low-carbon energy technologies by 2010. It also calls on the G8 to form a climate group with leading developing nations such as India and China, which have big and growing CO2 emissions.
"What this underscores is that it's what we invest in now and in the next 20 years that will deliver a stable climate, not what we do in the middle of the century or later," said Tom Burke, a former government adviser on green issues who now advises business.
The report starkly spells out the likely consequences of exceeding the threshold. "Beyond the 2 degrees C level, the risks to human societies and ecosystems grow significantly," it says.
"It is likely, for example, that average-temperature increases larger than this will entail substantial agricultural losses, greatly increased numbers of people at risk of water shortages, and widespread adverse health impacts. [They] could also imperil a very high proportion of the world's coral reefs and cause irreversible damage to important terrestrial ecosystems, including the Amazon rainforest."
It goes on: "Above the 2 degrees level, the risks of abrupt, accelerated, or runaway climate change also increase. The possibilities include reaching climatic tipping points leading, for example, to the loss of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets (which, between them, could raise sea level more than 10 metres over the space of a few centuries), the shutdown of the thermohaline ocean circulation (and, with it, the Gulf Stream), and the transformation of the planet's forests and soils from a net sink of carbon to a net source of carbon."

Source: http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=603975
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cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Jan, 2005 02:56 pm
Tell that to all the A2K'ers in Boston.
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cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Jan, 2005 02:59 pm
When a person with a doctorate in ANYTHING can mistake a tsunami for a weather event, I'm pretty sure a bunch of doomsday prophets can sell at least a few people a line.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Jan, 2005 03:07 pm
cjhsa wrote:
... I'm pretty sure a bunch of doomsday prophets can sell at least a few people a line.


Most surely you are highly qualified to make such a response.
But could you please verify to what "bunch of doomsday prophets" exactly your response is referring? Give some names for instance?
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cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Jan, 2005 03:13 pm
The folks who wrote the article McTag is referring to. From what I've heard, they clearly lay out a doomsday scenario which they are going to use the attack industrialized nations, in international courts filled with environmentalist wack jobs. Wait and see.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Jan, 2005 03:25 pm
That's an interesting response, cjhsa.

You really must have a high professional qualification in climatology, environemental sciences, metereology etc to disqualify the members of the "International Climate Change Taskforce" to the level of your dentist's opinion about the origin of tsunami.

You certainly have read the complete report already?
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Jan, 2005 03:34 pm
To McTag, I read the article written by a columnist with no credentials for his expertise mentioned though that alone does not disqualify his take on this. The article however does not specify who prepared (or funded) the report cited. Again, do the scientists cited need global warming in order for their jobs to be secure? That should not be construed that I think a scientist must be financially independent to be objective, but I would feel better if we could find a financially independent scientist who concurred with these findings.

For instance, I did a search on "Climate Challenge" and found numerous similar articles presented at vartious universities with studies no doubt funded by goernment grants. And when I did a search for "Climate Challenge bogus bad science" I found numerous other sources debunking findings by the global-warming scientists. Articles like this

Excerpted

Quote:
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) Working Group I (WGI) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) (titled Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis) is not an assessment of climate change science, even though it claims to be. Rather, it is an artfully constructed presentation of just the science that supports the fear of human-induced climate change. It is as one sided as a legal brief, which it resembles.

Line-by-line analysis of the SPM reveals that all of the science that cuts against the Theory of Human Interference with Climate has been systematically omitted. In some cases, the leading arguments against human interference are actually touched on, but without being revealed or discussed. In other cases, the evidence against human interference is simply ignored. Because of these strategic omissions, the SPM voices a degree of certainty that is entirely false.

Glaring omissions are only glaring to experts, so the "policymakers" as well as the press and the public who read the SPM will not realise they are being told only one side of the story. --David Wojick PhD
Whole article at
http://www.nexusmagazine.com/articles/climate.html


Now Dr. Wojick's funding comes from the Carnegie Institute who has no dog in this fight. In part his credentials are: Ph.D. from the University of Pittsburgh (1974). Specializing in Mathematical Logic and Conceptual Analysis. Doctoral thesis was an analysis of scientific and technological revolutions.
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