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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 02:32 pm
blatham wrote:
oralloy wrote:
blatham wrote:
Foolish boys. One can fear the consequences of global warming and also fear the consequences of another nuclear plant catastrophe.


If the plant is properly designed, there is no risk of a Chernobyl-like incident.


An optimistic take on the perfection of humans.


Perhaps. But the various ways a reactor can fail can be analyzed, and designs can be developed that eliminate some of those modes of failure.



blatham wrote:
But if your point is that liklihoods of big bad things happening are very small, I don't have any information to argue against you.


Depends on how big the bad thing is.

I think the possibility of a Chernobyl-sized bad thing can be reduced to zero.

There may always be the possibility of a Three-Mile-Island-sized bad thing however.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 02:49 pm
oralloy

That's a bit more tempered.

I have no strong animus against nuclear, by the way, though waste is an issue and not insignificant.
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Louise R Heller
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 03:30 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Louise_R_Heller wrote:
Is it true that China ALONE cancels any benefits from Kyoto ev een if the US joined and participated???


What do you mean exactly by that?


(China, India, and other developing countries were exempt from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol because they were not the main contributors to the greenhouse gas emissions during the industrialization period that is believed [by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change when establing the 'Kyoto Treaty and agreeing to a set of a "common but differentiated responsibilities"] to be causing today's climate change.)

=======================================

I speak biology, not politics, and I think that YOU are stuck in the political details.....

Who CARES for politics IF 6 months of CHINESE COAL PLANTS OPERATIONS will poison THE ENTIRE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN????

THAT'S NO MATTER WHAT ANYBODY ELSE DOES!!!!
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 03:32 pm
Sorry, I was just asking because it was YOU who referred to Kyoto.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 03:41 pm
I think this little disagreement highlights some of the salient defects of the Kyoto framework;
1. It was backward-looking, and did not even begin to address the most significant new trends.
2. It offered no incentives for "greener" development, and even arguably could seriously damage the economies most able to develop and deploy the new technologies needed.
3, Its goals will likely not be met, even by the most strenuous (and hypocritical) of its advocates.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 03:55 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
First Steve's points -- It would be interesting to review a selection of the Guardian's anti nuclear stories and editorials over the past few decades in juxtaposition to the cited piece by "Sir David King". One can be bemused by the lack of shame exhibited by such self-important, authoritarian sources (the Guardian) when, after decades of being dead wrong, they announce their new "discovery", but the discerning reader should not be deceived. It was also interesting that Sir David devoted about 20% of his article to defending himself from the expected criticisms from his real constituency - the loonie "Greens". I was quite amused by the bone he chose to throw them: while he favors government subsidies for wind, wave, and solar power, and government mandates for the design of vehicles and appliances, he stedfastly opposed government subsidies for nuclear power. What lofty moral principles are evident here ! What a principled public figure - incorruptable and unwilling to bend in the slightest to public fantasy! What crap !


I have no idea George what prompts you to such vitriol on a position I genuinely thought you would support.
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Mortkat
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 04:05 pm
And Louise Heller's excellent post does not even include INDIA, who as as a "developing country" was also exempt from the Kyoto Guidelines. It will be most interesting to see whether these two countries will be included in the next set of guidelines to be issued. It just may be that China will tell the rest of the world to take a flying leap with their guidelines--The Chinese have over a billion people to take care of and little appetite for the extravagantly expensive "reforms" they would have to install to assuage the sensitivities of the Europeans.

We shall see ---but I predict that the Chinese and East Indians will not go along. Then the question becomes whether the USA should then assent to any new guidelines given the fact that even if the USA did assent, the co2 pollution from the Chinese and the East Indians would totally negate American efforts by the year 2020.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 04:12 pm
Steve (as 41oo) wrote:

I have no idea George what prompts you to such vitriol on a position I genuinely thought you would support.


Well it was a bit vitriolic wasn't it.

Mostly my ire was for the Guardian which somehow seems to be able to rise up with self-important indignation or announcements of "new" discoveries, regardless of its previous opposition to the very "discoveries" being announced, or related previous positions it has taken. I don't for a moment think that the British press is any worse than ours in this area, but do believe the Guardian is a persistent leader in this kind of hypocricy.

I do indeed support the ideas being put forward by the royal science advisor. However I find his smarmy bowing to the most unscientific and narrow-minded prejudices of the green constituency rather lacking in principle and itself, unscientific. There is nothing at all new in the observation that Nuclear power yields a vastly smaller environmental impact than any of the principal alternative means of production - or even that it is better in this area than most of the new options for renewable energy being so eagerly subsidized by European governments. Despite his pius and pretentious affirmations of integrity, he revealed himself to be quite willing to bend.
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Mortkat
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 04:46 pm
I am also certain that GeorgeOB1 knows that the French, who would have one believe that their special culutural achievements puts them in the forefront of thinking about ANY scientific problems, utilize Nuclear Power as thier premier source for electrical energy.
To the best of my knowledge, there has been no severe nuclear accidents in France.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 04:53 pm
"To the best of my knowledge, there has been no severe nuclear accidents in France." ....yet.
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Mortkat
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 05:00 pm
OH, Cicerone, you know, of course, the French would never allow it>
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 05:10 pm
Such as their racial and labor problems. Ofcoarse, they are perfect in every way.
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Mortkat
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 05:15 pm
They think so. If you don't believe it, just ask them, or better still read their journals to see how they compare their "great" nation with ours.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 05:33 pm
Actually the French have taken a very well-integrated and coherent approach to the applicatoion of nuclear power. They standardized the design of their plants and took early streps to organize and optimize their management and storage of the waste materials, all to very good effect. Roughly 75% of French electrical power is produced in them at very competitive costs compared to the alternatives. I wish we had done as well.
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Mortkat
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 05:35 pm
George OB1- If our House and Senate was not as politicized as it is, we may have done as well as the French. I know of no reason why our scienctific knowledge is not as good or better than theirs.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 06:03 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Actually the French have taken a very well-integrated and coherent approach to the applicatoion of nuclear power. They standardized the design of their plants and took early streps to organize and optimize their management and storage of the waste materials, all to very good effect. Roughly 75% of French electrical power is produced in them at very competitive costs compared to the alternatives. I wish we had done as well.


We would do as well and better if we didn't have a large segment of the American public who is squeamish about anything nuclear. I much prefer being American even though my paternal family descends mostly from the French. But sometimes I think we Americans have more than our fair share of shortsighted nut cases.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 17 Dec, 2005 06:21 pm
Some of those shortsighted nut cases were the executives of old utility companies who saw nuclear reactors as merely a replacement for coal-fired boilers, and who insisted on unique designs in keeping with their accustomed practices. As a result we built 105 plants with about 85 distinct designs. Many were very well-conceived and executed, but a number were not. As a result we unnecessarily repeated an expensive learning process many times. The U.S. Navy and the French Government took very different, more conservative and centrally managed design approaches, focusing on constant design and operating principles and dealing head on with the basic engineering, manufacturing (for fuel elements) and operational/training issues that were before them. Both achieved superior results at less cost.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 Dec, 2005 10:22 am
georgeob1 wrote:
As a result we built 105 plants with about 85 distinct designs. Many were very well-conceived and executed, but a number were not. As a result we unnecessarily repeated an expensive learning process many times.

Aren't General Electric and Westinghouse both selling reactors of well-engineered, standardized designs to China, Brazil, and other emerging markets? I think I read an article in the Wall Street Journal that said so, but I'm not entirely sure. But if I remember correctly, the private sector does supply standardized civilian designs. It's just that now that they're offered, the US and much of Europe aren't demanding any new nuclear reactors, standardized or not.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 Dec, 2005 01:53 pm
Thomas wrote:
Aren't General Electric and Westinghouse both selling reactors of well-engineered, standardized designs to China, Brazil, and other emerging markets? I think I read an article in the Wall Street Journal that said so, but I'm not entirely sure. But if I remember correctly, the private sector does supply standardized civilian designs. It's just that now that they're offered, the US and much of Europe aren't demanding any new nuclear reactors, standardized or not.


You are correct with respect to the design of the reactor vessel and the fuel element layout. There was also a degree of standardization in the design and manufacture of the fuel assembliess. However, there was a great deal of variabilitry in plant layout; the design and manufacture of critical auxiliary components such as pressurizers, Ion Exchangers, and the steam gererators which housed the interface between the primary reactor coolant and the steam circuit; the structural standards applied to piping supports; and of major aspects of operating and training practices as they related (or should have related) to certain features of plant design. It wasn't until 1980 that industry wide standards were adopted for these matters and a couple of decades passed before all the legacy issues were worked out. I started my business career running a consulting firm that made a great deal of money working out just the structural and risk assessment issues in this mess. There were other equally complex issues involving instrumentation (too much of it in the wrong areas) and plant chemistry control. It wasn't until 1998 that we began to standardize the storage casks for spent fuel assemblys.

The flip side of this is that GE and Westinghouse designed some very good reactor plants and, together with the goverrnment regulating agencies, avoided the very risky plant designs the Russians put forward and even the flawed boiling water reactor designs produced in Europe. The Navy under Adm. Rickover operated two captive design laboratories run respectively by GE and Westinghouse for the design of Naval reactors and their masjor components. Perhaps the necessity of cramming the whole plant into the hull of a submarine forced them to take a more holistic view of things from the start. In any event the Navy's initial learning curve lasted only 12 years while that in the power industry took almost 40. (the plants in the latest aircraft carriers are designed to last the 50 year life of the ship, without refuelling - amazing things..)

I don't have an up close knowledge of the French system, but I have worked extensively with their several corporations (Framatom, etc.)that have attempted to penetrate the U.S. market. I have the impression that, just as they have in their aircraft industry, made early decisions to focus on a small set of basic design options and pursued them with steady discipline. In these areas this is a very good way to quickly and economically deliver a quality product - provided the basic design choices were correct. One may pay a price in innovation and adaptability, however if one has limited resources, marching off smartly in all directions is often a worse choice.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 Dec, 2005 03:19 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Just clarifying that Sir David King is the head of "The Office of Science and Technology" (which) "leads for Government in supporting excellent science, engineering and technology and their uses to benefit society and the economy".

Such, he is a member of Her Majesty's [Labour led] Government and holds a cabinet post.


are you saying his government role compromises his scientific integrity?

if he was chief law officer, well yes i could believe that.
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