Population Growth

@gollum,

The more wealth you have, the fewer children you are likely to have.

Next question.

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@gollum,

Fertility levels in industrialized nations are dropping and have been since the end of the second world war; and although all manner of reasons have been advanced--such as education, access to birth control--no one really knows. Anyone who claims to know is peddling bullsh*t.

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@Setanta,

Quote:

Fertility levels in industrialized nations are dropping and have been since the end of the second world war; and although all manner of reasons have been advanced--such as education, access to birth control--no one really knows.

That isn't true. There has been quite a bit of research into why fertility levels have dropped. It is not that difficult to design scientifically valid studies. And... of course you can just ask the people themselves.

Sociologists have a good handle on what makes fertility rates drop.

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@gollum,

Quote:

I believe people in some ethnicities (e.g., Whites in N.America and W. Europe, and Japanese people) are not giving birth to enough children to maintain their population.

You state this as if it's a bad thing. It isn't, but it will take some adjustment to move to an economic system not based on the concept of unlimited growth.

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Reduced fertility in the industrialized world has been identified as a drop in male fertility. This page from a Belgian University identifies causes of reduced male fertility. Note that it says that a "sensible" reason can be found in half the cases. That means that half the cases are unexplained--and of course, it begs the question to cite various forms of erectile dysfunction, as the cause of said dysfunction is not explained.

This article from CNN reports on a JAMA study which identifies pesticides as a cause of reduced fertility in women. That begs the question of why there is reduced fertility in the industrialized world, given that pesticides are used in the so-called developing world, and often with fewer restrictions.

The "lowest-low" fertility rates, identified by demographers as a replacement rate of 1.3 to 1 or lower (one-point-three live births to every death) prevails in well over half of the nations of Europe. The replacement rate in the United States is at about two-to-one, which demographers attribute to immigration. The fertility rate in immigrant communities in the United States drops in the second and subsequent generation. The total fertility rate in East Asia is very low, with Singapore, Macau, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea having some of the lowest rates in the world. This is also considered a serious problem in Japan, even more so because their replacement rate is not enhanced by immigration as it is in Singapore and Macau. These cities and nations are the most industrialized in East Asia.

This reduction in population growth in the industrialized world is not just attributable to social factors which delay willful reproduction. The relative infertility of citizens in the industrialized world, particularly men, was identified by demographers and epidemiologists decades ago. There is no consensus on the causes, and glib remarks by people who are not expert, who do not (apparently) understand how to properly evaluate evidence and who set themselves up as instant experts are, to put it with civility, silly and untrustworthy.

Anyone who claims to know why the birth rate in the industrialized world has been dropping for more than 50 years is peddling bullsh*t.

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@hightor,

I agree, and think that cutting out the greedy capitalists, in order to assure better education, reliable social services, food security and retirement security would be the fastest and most reliable way to begin to reduce the human population of this planet.

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@Setanta,

Setanta is getting confused between the biological fertility rate and total fertility rate. Biological fertility rate has very little impact population growth compared to other factors.

The total fertility rate (the number of children per adult woman) is mostly related to wealth and education levels.

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Max is confusing his high opinion of his own pronouncements with an answer to the question. The question was why the birth rate in industrialized nations is dropping, while it is rising in so-called developing nations. There is no single comprehensive answer to such a question other than that fertility in people in the industrialized nations of lower, and continues a trend observable for more than 50 years.

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@gollum,

gollum wrote:

I believe people in some ethnicities (e.g., Whites in N.America and W. Europe, and Japanese people) are not giving birth to enough children to maintain their population.

Other peoples are increasing in population (e.g., Third World).

Why?

This is the OP. It asks why the total fertility rate is lower in some ethnicities (an unwarranted assumption given that the "ethnicity" of North American and European countries is not homogeneous). No, he did not ask about the total fertility rate. That, however, is the term used by demographers and epidemiologists in discussions of the relative replacement rate in any population.

Anyone claiming to know why the fertility rate in the industrialized world has been falling for more than 50 years is peddling bullsh*t.

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I have a hunch that the inverse correlation between wealth and fertility is merely symptomatic.

My guess is that part of the biological organism's mating drive is governed by an assessment of available space for children, an animal sense of resources needed to fuel another life that sees the surrounding population and floor space within a city environment and replies we have enough people.

Is there a difference in the change to fertility rates across the developed countries?

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@AngleWyrm-paused,

None that I know of--the one thing that demographers agree on is that the total fertility rate of any country (and city states such as Macau and Singapore) is raised by immigration. The relatively high replacement rate of the United States (which is still below two-to-one, which is necessary to have replacement parity or growth), as well as Singapore and Macau is attributed by the majority of demographers to high rates of immigration. As also already noted, the fertility rate in immigrant communities falls in the second and subsequent generation. The replacement rate in the United States (which is what, in part, the OP was concerned with) is lower now than at any time in the 108 years that records have been kept. The total fertility rate in native born U.S. citizens is well below replacement, and well above replacement in immigrant citizens. Sixty years ago, the replacement rate was very high, with 3.8 live births per woman--it is now 1.9, roughly half of what it was in the late 1950s.

The differences in fertility, as expressed by the total fertility rate, among industrialized nations if not significant--they are all below replacement levels. Until recently, outside the United Kingdom, immigration rates in Europe were much lower than in the industrialized nations and cities of East Asia, and in North America.

The Central Intelligence Agency of the United States maintains excellent demographic information--they are the go-to source for English-speakers for demographic data. From the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, here are the total fertility rates of nations, ranked from highest to lowest: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html

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I would say since women in industrialized regions have better health care and access to birth control, the birth rate is down. This has nothing to do with "fertility rates" - ie " total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman would have if a she survives all her childbearing (or reproductive) years. Childbearing years are considered age 15 to 49."

If their fertility (ability to give birth) is in decline, then the environment and individual health needs should be looked at. China had lower birth rates due to government regulation on family size. I don't think women's fertility ability was any lower. Location and decision-making are big factors.

Sperm count in industrialized nations is affected by environment issues. This needs to be studied, as it's of concern.

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@Setanta,

You are being silly, Setanta.

Women in modern Industrialized nations are choosing to have children later. They are choosing to get married later. They are choosing to have fewer children. And there is a direct, and significant correlation between woman's education and birth rate in developing countries. Yes, you are right that there is scientific research that the sperm count in men is decreasing and chemicals have been suggested as a possible cause. But you are making a leap that is not at all logical.

For you to claim that pesticide is a significant cause of the reduction in birth rate in Western societies is just foolish (and you might want to look up the meaning of the word "significant" before you get even more silly).

I think you are smart enough, Setanta... I just think you get stuck when you say something absurd and then continue to dig in rather than accept the fact that you might have made a mistake.

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@Setanta,

Quote:

The differences in fertility, as expressed by the total fertility rate, among industrialized nations if not significant--they are all below replacement levels. Until recently, outside the United Kingdom, immigration rates in Europe were much lower than in the industrialized nations and cities of East Asia, and in North America.

The Central Intelligence Agency of the United States maintains excellent demographic information--they are the go-to source for English-speakers for demographic data. From the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, here are the total fertility rates of nations, ranked from highest to lowest: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html

The perspective of looking at a spread of national stats provides a concept of width, and so I'd like to add also the concept of depth to the measurement. The vital statistics archives of the Center for Disease Control (CDC) gives measurements across history, annual snapshots of the fertility rate, but only for the USA. CDC/NVSS birth data

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@AngleWyrm-paused,

Good link, thank you.

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The reasons that the fertility rate is falling are quite well known.

Quote:

What’s behind this decline? According to Brinton, the complicated problem involves several factors, led by economic forces and entrenched attitudes about women in the workforce and as mothers.

During a year at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Brinton and her team continued analyzing the results of 400 in-depth interviews with men and women in their late 20s and early 30s in Japan, Sweden, Spain, South Korea, and the United States. The comparative study focused on 80 respondents in each country who completed some form of education after high school.

Using the same questions and a restricted sample allowed the team to make “sensible comparisons across countries,” said Brinton. The lengthy interviews also allowed them to explore “the reasoning that different people are using, so that we can really understand how people are thinking about their lives at critical junctures in young adulthood.”

Interviewers asked respondents about their attitudes toward work, marriage, family, and children, and more nuanced questions about gender roles, including queries such as “Should mothers work outside the home?” and “Do men make better business executives than women?”

The responses revealed that Japan and South Korea’s similar attitudes about gender norms are likely helping keep birthrates there low. In those societies, the prevailing cultural norms hold that women should leave their jobs when it’s time to have children, while their husbands should continue as breadwinners with little responsibility for household work or child care.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2014/07/falling-fertility-rates/

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Pumpkin seeds, crop rotation, selenium and zinc would help in counteracting the declining fertility rates in so-called advanced regions.

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@Sturgis,

Do you really think selenium will increase the rate of population growth? I really can't tell who is joking on this thread.

Most serious people think lower population growth is a good thing.

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@maxdancona,

Both zinc and selenium have been shown to improve male fertility and help out the prostate.

Posts started going on about fertility rates which is the reason for my posting.

1 Reply

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