https://quincyinst.org/research/the-risks-to-germany-and-europe-of-a-prolonged-war-in-ukraine/#executive-summary
Beware: Facts are included!!
EXCERPT
US policy in support of Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s full-scale invasion has inflicted a disproportionate risk of escalation on Europe, which has also borne a disproportionate economic impact. Allowing Europe to become collateral damage in an effort to defeat Russia is strategically unsound.
In Germany and elsewhere in Europe, the second-order consequences of the war in Ukraine have destabilized politics. A policy that aimed to roll back global autocracy has ironically promoted the electoral appeal of an ascendent populist-right across Europe.
The fracturing and polarization of party systems produces fragile and fractious governing coalitions. This tendency is evident in Germany and France, but elsewhere in Europe as well.
Europe’s leaders have embraced the aim of raising Europe’s own military readiness. However, debt-constrained finances and weak economic growth impede the increased defense spending that Europeans have pledged to deliver.
Given the fiscal constraints faced by Europe’s NATO members, there is an unavoidable tradeoff between maintaining levels of arms and equipment sent to Ukraine, and any substantial effort by European NATO members toward rearmament and greater responsibility for their own territorial defense.
Europe’s relative economic weakness arises from a host of causes, many of which are outside the power of the U.S. to reverse or mitigate substantially, including a global turn toward greater trade protectionism. Given Europe’s weak growth prospects, devising policies that reinforce and empower NATO’s European pillar should be given priority.
The current crisis calls for a radical revamp of U.S. policy toward Europe that ultimately promotes Europeans from clients to peers. Since Germany is the strongest power in Europe, such a revamp would mean accommodating, to an extent, Germany’s foreign policy preferences and its concerns about the risks of escalation in Ukraine.
Overview
The war-crisis nexus across Europe
One of America’s greatest post–World War II diplomatic achievements has been the fostering of a peace order in Europe — including, in particular, the expansion of liberal democracy, and the formation of the European Union (E.U.) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Recent developments suggest, however, that the policy course on Ukraine that the United States has followed since Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion risks inadvertently contributing to conditions in Western Europe that undermine the E.U., create conditions for social instability, and foster illiberal political trends. This has been made evident by the recent success of populist-nationalist parties — which are generally lukewarm, at best, about the defense of Ukraine — in Italy, the Netherlands, France, and Germany. Even in the United Kingdom, the formerly-governing Conservative Party has lost ground to the populist-right party, Reform U.K., which opposes aid to Ukraine.
The continued burden of supporting the war in Ukraine is taking a toll on European solidarity as a growing share of the public either favors or anticipates a negotiated settlement.
The strategy adopted by the United States and NATO points to a prolonged war with no predictable outcome or duration, and an ever-growing risk of escalation. Decision-makers in the United States should take into account what the pursuit of that strategy implies for ensuring stability and prosperity in Europe. One of Ukraine’s most significant postwar aims is, after all, to join the E.U. It is vital, therefore, that Europe’s democracy, social protections, cooperative diplomacy, open markets, and social pluralism survive. It is not clear that U.S. and NATO policy is fully taking into account the risks and vulnerabilities that Germany, France, and other European NATO members face under these conditions — risks that are exacerbated the longer the war drags on and draws resources from weak European economies.
Under this prolonged and inconclusive war scenario, anti-establishment forces in Europe — already on the ascendent — are likely to further exploit grievances for their political gain against the United States for the disproportionate costs and social hardship its strategy has imposed on Europe. Such a risk is especially pertinent if the war in Ukraine spills into open conflict between Russia and NATO. Already, it is evident that the direct and indirect effects of a policy aimed to roll back global autocracy has promoted the electoral appeal of anti-war, anti–NATO populist-nationalists of right and left in Germany, in particular.
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So much more at the link explaining how (ahem) Germany’s knuckling under the US/NATO and unrestrained spending trying to prolong the war (down to the last Ukrainian) and the loss of reasonably priced Russian oil/ gas products has set their govt and economy ablaze. (In case, like Walter, you hadn’t heard.)
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