This thread was originally titled Elections in Germany: Center fails, Far Right and Left gain. I changed the title as developments took a different turn, with the Christian-Democrats finally gaining momentum and picking up floating voters who previously had mostly scattered to the far ends of the political spectrum.
And changed it again on election night, 2005. Even if the Red-Green government will have to go and probably make room for a Grand Coalition of Christian-Democrats and Socialdemocrats, there is no turn to the right on the part of the electorate. The left as a whole has done no worse than three years ago: what the SPD (and marginally, the Greens) have lost, the Linkspartei to their left has won. The rightwing parties did not win any percentage point, the way it looks with almost all the votes in.
In September, the results of four subsequent elections in Germany raised some eyebrows: regional elections in the states of Saxony and Brandenburg (in East-Germany) and Saarland (in the West) and local elections in North-Rhine Westphalia, which includes the heavily populated Ruhr area.
Trends differed from election to election but some main patterns were clear:
- Low turnout
- Extremely bad results for the ruling Social-Democrats
- Disappointing results for the oppositional Christian-Democrats
- Gains, occasionally strong gains, for the parties of the extreme Right, with the neo-nazi NPD netting 9% in Sachsen and 4% in Saarland
- Gains for the junior government party, the Greens, and the junior opposition party, the Free Democrats (right-wing liberals)
- Gains for the former East-German communists, both in West and East
- Gains for numerous smaller parties
Here's the numbers. The largest five parties (Christian-Democrats, Social-Democrats, Greens, Rightwing-Liberals and Ex-Communists) are always listed on top, then the parties of the far right, then the rest, mostly by size except where I could easily group them by category.
For each elections, from left to right, you have the number of votes (in thousands) this time and last time, and gains/losses in votes; the percentage, this time and last time, and gains/losses in percentages; and gains/losses in percentages compared to the national elections of 2002.
Code:SAARLAND 5 SEPTEMBER 2004
ELECTION RESULTS REGIONAL ELECTIONS
PARTY '04 #k '99 #k +/- 2004 % 1999 % +/- 2002+/- CLASSIF
CDU/CSU 210 254 - 44 47,5 45,5 + 1,9 +12,5 Chr-Dem
SPD 136 247 -111 30,8 44,4 -13,5 -15,2 Soc-Dem
GRUENE 25 18 + 7 5,6 3,2 + 2,4 - 2,0 Greens
FDP 23 14 + 9 5,2 2,6 + 2,6 - 1,2 RW-Lib
PDS 10 4 + 6 2,3 0,8 + 1,5 + 0,9 Ex-Comm
NPD 18 * + 18 4,0 * + 4,0 + 3,3 Neo-Nazi
REPS * 7 - 7 * 1,3 - 1,3 - 0,4 FarRight
SCHILL * * * * * * - 0,9 FarRight
FAMILIE 13 6 + 7 3,0 1,0 + 2,0 + 1,9 Centr
GRAUE 6 * + 6 1,4 * + 1,4 + 0,9 Elderly
OTHERS 1 7 - 6 0,2 1,2 - 1,2 + 0,2
TURNOUT 55,5 68,7
Code:SACHSEN 19 SEPTEMBER 2004
ELECTION RESULTS REGIONAL ELECTIONS
PARTY '04 #k '99 #k +/- 2004 % 1999 % +/- 2002+/- CLASSIF
CDU/CSU 855 1,231 -376 41,1 56,9 -15,8 + 7,5 Chr-Dem
SPD 204 232 - 28 9,8 10,7 - 0,9 -23,5 Soc-Dem
GRUENE 107 56 + 51 5,1 2,6 + 2,5 + 0,5 Green
FDP 123 23 +100 5,9 1,1 + 4,8 - 2,2 RW-Lib
PDS 490 480 + 10 23,6 22,2 + 1,4 + 7,4 Ex-Comm
NPD 191 30 +161 9,2 1,4 + 7,8 + 7,8 Neo-Nazi
D-MARK * 46 - 46 * 2,1 - 2,1 * AntiEuro
REPS * 33 - 33 * 1,5 - 1,5 - 1,0 FarRight
SCHILL * * * * * * - 1,2 FarRight
TIERSCH 34 * + 34 1,6 * + 1,6 + 1,6 Animal R
GRAUE 19 7 + 12 0,9 0,3 + 0,6 + 0,3 Elderly
PBC 14 7 + 7 0,7 0,3 + 0,4 + 0,1 Christ
DSU 11 9 + 2 0,5 0,4 + 0,1 + 0,5 Conserv
BUSO 11 * + 11 0,5 0,1 + 0,4 + 0,2 Left-Pop
AUFBR 11 * + 11 0,5 * + 0,5 + 0,5 New Age
OTHERS 9 9 0 0,4 0,4 0 + 0,4
TURNOUT 59,6 61,1
Code:BRANDENBURG 19 SEPTEMBER 2004
ELECTION RESULTS REGIONAL ELECTIONS
PARTY '04 #k '99 #k +/- 2004 % 1999 % +/- 2002+/- CLASSIF
CDU/CSU 227 293 - 66 19,4 26,6 - 7,2 - 2,9 Chr-Dem
SPD 373 433 - 60 31,9 39,3 - 7,4 -14,5 Soc-Dem
GRUENE 42 21 + 21 3,6 1,9 + 1,7 - 0,9 Greens
FDP 39 20 + 19 3,3 1,9 + 1,4 - 2,5 RW-Lib
PDS 327 257 + 70 28,0 23,3 + 4,7 +10,8 Ex-Comm
DVU 71 58 + 13 6,1 5,3 + 0,8 + 6,1 FarRight
NPD * 8 - 8 * 0,7 - 0,7 - 1,5 Neo-Nazi
SCHILL * * * * * * - 1,7 FarRight
FAMILIE 31 * + 31 2,6 * + 2,6 + 2,6 Centr
50 PLUS 12 * + 12 1,0 * + 1,0 + 1,0 Elderly
GRAUE 10 * + 10 0,9 * + 0,9 + 0,3 Elderly
AfW 11 * + 11 0,9 * + 0,9 + 0,9 Free
BFWG * 7 - 7 * 0,6 - 0,6 * Free
AUB-BRANDB 10 * + 10 0,9 * + 0,9 + 0,9 Local
BRB 6 * + 6 0,5 * + 0,5 + 0,5 Local
OTHERS 10 4 + 6 0,9 0,3 + 0,6 + 0,9
TURNOUT 56,4 54,3
Code:NORDRHEIN-WESTFALEN 26 SEPTEMBER 2004
ELECTION RESULTS LOCAL ELECTIONS
PARTY '04 #k '99 #k +/- 2004 % 1999 % +/- 2002+/- CLASSIF
CDU/CSU 3,231 3,733 -502 43,4 50,3 - 6,9 + 8,3 Chr-Dem
SPD 2,356 2,519 -163 31,7 33,9 - 2,2 -11,3 Soc-Dem
GRUENE 769 543 +226 10,3 7,3 + 3,0 + 1,4 Greens
FDP 505 320 +185 6,8 4,3 + 2,5 - 2,5 RW-Lib
PDS 101 62 + 39 1,4 0,8 + 0,6 + 0,2 Ex-Comm
REPS 42 26 + 16 0,6 0,4 + 0,2 + 0,2 FarRight
SCHILL * * * * * * - 0,7 FarRight
NPD+DVU 24 8 + 16 0,3 0,1 + 0,2 + 0,1 FarRight
VOT.GR 355 vvv vvv 4,8 2,6 + 2,2 + 4,8 Local
OTHERS 53 213 +195 0,7 0,2 + 0,5 - 0,3
TURNOUT 54,5 55,0