The Trouble With Hillary

Everyone Knows This Senator, and for 2008, That May Be Precisely the Trouble[/URL]
By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ

Published: December 5, 2004

ASHINGTON, Dec. 4 - In a race for the presidency, Hillary Rodham Clinton faces a problem that has dogged her since her days as first lady: an entrenched bloc of voters who simply do not like her.

And her experience as a senator in New York shows that despite vigorous campaigning around the state since taking office, she remains an extremely polarizing figure who is unable to sway these voters to her side.

One poll after another shows that roughly one of three New Yorkers has an unfavorable opinion of Mrs. Clinton, a statistic that has not changed since she took office in 2001.

Nationally, her standing is worse, even as her aides prepare for what is emerging as a possible bid for president in 2008. Roughly 4 of 10 Americans disapprove of her, according to a recent poll by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

The voters who disapprove of Mrs. Clinton are numerous and unshakable, and they have been around so long that they even have a name in political circles. Hillary haters.

Mrs. Clinton offered a revealing answer when asked recently whether Republicans might be hoping that she becomes the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008, since it would give the G.O.P. a divisive figure to run against.

Mrs. Clinton - who studiously avoids answering questions about her presidential ambitions - quickly responded. "We have a president who is quite polarizing - and very successful, I might add," Mrs. Clinton said during an appearance on NBC's "Today."

Mrs. Clinton's high unfavorability ratings may help explain why a discussion has begun among her advisers over whether she should skip a Senate re-election campaign in 2006 and instead focus all her energies on a race for the White House.

The most obvious challenge that Mrs. Clinton faces in running for both jobs is a compressed political calendar that leaves her very little room to maneuver: The Iowa presidential caucuses are held just 14 months after Election Day in 2006.

If Mrs. Clinton stuck to the schedule that John Kerry followed during this presidential election cycle, she would have to give a clear indication of her desire to run for the presidency a mere month after her Senate race was over.

But that seems unlikely, some political analysts say, because the timing would be awkward.

Yet some people close to Mrs. Clinton maintain that the tight calendar should not be a problem because she is such a big celebrity, and any presidential campaign she embarks upon would instantly attract a huge amount of attention.

But other Democrats and independent political strategists say that her celebrity is a double-edged sword: While Mrs. Clinton does indeed enjoy a level of name recognition other politicians crave, she has earned a reputation that, fairly or not, makes her a polarizing figure among moderate swing voters, an important bloc nationally.

"There's work for her to do nationally," said Lee M. Miringoff, the director of the Marist institute. "Beyond her appeal to the Democratic base, there is a need for her to build bridges to reach out to moderate Republicans and independent voters if she hopes to succeed."

The so-called Hillary haters became a harsh reality of political life for Mrs. Clinton when she ran for the Senate. Republicans built much of their campaign on trying to tap anti-Clinton sentiments in New York State.

No one factor accounts for the deep misgivings many voters express for Mrs. Clinton, but to some degree it stems from a view that has taken hold, fairly or not, that she is a hugely ambitious woman with a liberal agenda that was most significantly illustrated in her efforts to overhaul the nation's health care system during her husband's presidency.

Mrs. Clinton sought to counteract the damage posed by the anti-Clinton feeling by spending nearly two years traveling around the state in a calculated effort to force voters to re-examine what, if anything, is so objectionable about her.

Many Democrats and independent political strategists contend that Mrs. Clinton may have to do much the same nationally.

"To be successful nationally, she will have to defuse some of the negative feelings," Mr. Miringoff said. "One way to attempt that is to replicate what she did in with New York with her Listening Tour."

A Democratic political strategist on Capitol Hill agreed. "She may have 100 percent name recognition," the strategist said. "But it comes with a certain amount of baggage."

Even after her victory in New York, Mrs. Clinton has taken nothing for granted, continuing to travel around the state constantly, as if running a perpetual campaign.

The strategy has yielded dividends: Her popularity rating among New Yorkers reached a notable 61 percent in September, compared with 38 percent in February 2001, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll.

Mrs. Clinton's approach has been particularly effective with undecided voters. The number of people who told Quinnipiac pollsters that they had no opinion of her has been dropping - to 7 percent in September from 33 percent in February 2001.

But tellingly enough, her tireless efforts around the state have done little to assuage the misgivings of many. The number of New Yorkers expressing an unfavorable opinion of her has been about the same - roughly one in three - in the 22 polls Quinnipiac University has conducted since 2001.

But Mrs. Clinton's advisers contend that the poll findings have, in fact, been very good news for her, saying that many undecided voters became supporters once they got to know her.

"Show me a poll where she has lost ground," said one Democrat who is close to Mrs. Clinton. "You can't. They don't exist. She has been gaining supporters both in New York and nationally since she took office by virtue of her hard work."