Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked

Liberals wallow in a never-never-land of their own making. Rove couldn't have developed a better diversion. Their hatred for Bush, their belief that he has curbed civil liberties, trampled the environment, and plans to make abortions illegal leads them to believe the GOP will do anything to succeed -- and that almost everyone else is a willing dupe of its ambitions. They see no gradations.
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/11/21/ING5A9TCU21.DTL

Timber claims to be a day trader yet doesn't know the DJIA is down since Bush took office???
If I were him or her, I would cut out the posting during market hours, pehaps that is why so many of his or her posts make so little sense

At the moment, I tend to think The Market is at or very close to its bottom. Unfortunately, I don't expect a startlingly robust recovery. My current feeling is a Dow in the mid $9K to low $10k range by year end
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=131382#131382

... As long as The Dow is at or above 9K, unemployment is at or below 5.5%, GDP growth is at or above 3%, inflation is below 2%, and both South Korea and Israel still exist come Autum '04, he can't lose. George's military record is merely an inconvenience, not a career-limiting hinderance. In fact, if The Dems sieze on the matter as a key point of opposition, they will simply seal their own doom.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=237973#237973

cicerone imposter wrote:

timber, It's good to see some good news on retail sales for a month or two, but what we must look for are long term improvement trends.

RLX= Retail Index
SPX= Standard & Poor Index
DJI= Dow Jones Industrial ("The Dow Index")

Exactly, c.i. , glad you brought that up.
The Retail Index, up a bit over 40% in the past six months, has significantly, and consistently, outpaced overall market recovery, which by either of two major indexes is up roughly 25% over the same period ... I'd characterize that as more than just "a month or two".
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=357286#357286

Well, sorry, c.i. ... thought you'd know about the Retail Index. Its a tracking indicator of stock prices, just as the DOW and the S&P, to which I compared it, and is composed of the Stocks of major retailers. What makes it particularly useful as a leading indicator is that Retail Stocks are held most heavily by institutional investors ... major funds, multi-national banks, insurance companies, and the like ... not exactly what you'd call adventurous investors. Over the past year, the past six months in particular, the Retail sector has been subject to net acquisition by the really big players. Having collapsed in the latter part of '99, well ahead of the general market downturn, the sector languished well into last year, then began picking up steam. That it is outperforming other, more broadly based indicators is what is significant, as typically the index's performance closey tracks the overall market some months in advance of overall market movement. Applying MACD, or Moving Average Convergence/Divergence analysis, to the sector, indicates continued growth in the sector is highly likely. It is a reading of where Retail WILL BE, not where it IS. Bollinger analysis and Stochastic analysis of the index leads to the same conclusion, among many other methods. While normally applied to individual stocks, such analysis techniques (based on the pricnciple of standard mean deviation), when applied to entire sectors, is extraordinarilly accurate. http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=357939#357939

The major indices have improved significantly over the past 12 months. The folks who've lost money are the ones who've remained behind the curve - a group not populated by "The Big Boys". In the past 52 weeks, The Dow has moved from below $7200 to its current level of nearly $9500 ... a clear 25%+/- increase. The S&P, Russel, and NASDAQ have done even better than the Dow. The facts and history just don't support your argument.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=358030&highlight=dow#358030

The bubble of the late '90s was abberational, c.i., and just about guaranteed a massive correction; take a look at the 5-year performance of the DOW and tell me what it evidences. I see steady recovery over the past two quarters, with the upward trend accellerating.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=358154#358154

Anything's possible, dyslexia, but I'm betting the other way, and using my own real money; after almost four years of playing the market short, I'm going long on futures options contracts. I'm figuring by the end of Q4 '03 the Dow will be well above $10K ... an even more optimistic outlook than I held HERE

I guess my vote in that poll stands out, there's only one for the $10K category.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=361462#361462

Another conjecture: as numbers flow in over the next few weeks showing economic expansion is settling into a sustainable mode after the unprecedented spurt recently reported, the punditocracy will begin shouting they were right all along and that the economy is still in trouble. As the Dow forges beyond $10K and the Nasdaq leaves $2K in the dust, as home ownership increases, unemployment stabilizes then declines and hiring begins to put pressure on the labor pool as both manufacturing and sevices explode, the cry will be that its all an illusion, that debilitating inflation looms, that interest rates are dangerously low, and that the increased tax revenue due to improved earnings threatens to drive the deficit down too rapidly for economic stability. Expect also criticism from abroad that an "intentially and artificially soft dollar" gives the US an unfair export advantage. Bad news sells news, and if bad news can't be found, it must be manufactured.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=441390#441390

At this point, I see no reason The Dow will not break through $10K, probably within the next few trading sessions, retreat a bit under profit-taking pressure, crossing back-and-forth a few times, then finish the year above $10K.

One or two-day swings on "Threats" are really meaningless. Market performance Year-To-Date compared with Market Performance 2-Years-To-Date, 5-Years-To-Date, 10-Years-To-Date, 20-Years-To-Date, and 50-Years-To-Date indicate the current upward momentum not only is solid but accellerating. Coupling that with the consistent positive movement of market indicators, now including even upticks in employment and downticks in unemployment claims despite astounding concurrent productivity gains, along with substantial recent increases in capital investment, consumer sentiment, and overall construction, and the fact that every "revision" over the past 3 quarters (of which there have been many) has been positive, leads to no conclusion other than that there is yet excessive pessimism. The Economy is growing faster, more broadly, and more sustainably than most folks realize.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=467341#467341

Just a little piece of trivia here, for perspective: 18 years ago today, Dec 5, 1985, The Dow broke above $1500 for the first time ever
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=469352#469352

Today, the DOW rose 102.59 points, or 1.04 percent, to 9,965.27, its highest close since May 28, 2002, with congruent gains recorded by the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. As expected, trading on all US exchanges was light in advance of tomorrow's Fed announcement re rates; no rate increase is anticipated, but all eyes will be on the wording of the statement. The item of interest is the term "considerable period" ... if it is missing, that will signal the probability of a rate increase sometime in mid-Q1 to early Q2 '04, which no doubt will bring about a market pullback and likely also strengthen the dollar a bit, though both effects, should either or both occur, will be transitory.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=474607&highlight=dow#474607

So anyhow ... the DOW closed up $86.3) to end at $1008.16. While $10,026.53 was hit, today's close above $10K is a more significant even, IMO. A short-term pullback ... profit taking, is possible tomorrow, but volume and price picked up today right at the close of trading ... fewer overall trades, but larger ones characterized the last half-hour of trading. This indicates to me a sentiment within the market's big players favorable to net acquisition, and I would anticipate the index will close the week still above $10K, is not much unchanged from today's close. By year-end, looking at underlying indicators, barring external shock, the index could close the year well established above $10K, and the NAS settling in above $2K.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=478754#478754

The DOW first crossed $10K in early '99, near the end of the '92-'99 boom. Interest rates then, short and long term, consumer and institutional, were considerably higher. Inflation was running at around double the current pace. Labor productivity was around half its current level. The current ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings is considerably lower than it was then, and corporate earnings are increasing at a rate far in excess of that which applied in the '92-'99 boom. The current market strength is broad-based, not concentrated in speculative, earnings-shy techs, as was the case in the '92-'99 run-up, and includes basic industries, financial services, and so-called "Consumer Cyclicals", such as autos, homebuilders, and durable goods ... all lacking significant momentum in the tech-crazy earlier period, particularly as regards the latter months of the previous boom. The combination of low interest rates, low inflation, and consistent market gains in well in excess of the yields available from interest-bearing investments render stocks a relative bargain, without even taking into account the effect of the cut in the dividend tax rate. The rate-of-return-on-investment is more attractive for stocks than it has been in years.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=480732#480732

Also of note is that yesterdy's DOW close at $10,592.44 is the highest since Mar 12 '02's close of $10632.40. I expect, however, that today's market activity will be flat to slightly down on profit taking, as today's unemployment news was mere good, not astounding. Only well-above-expected news seems to drive market gains anymore, which itself is an encouraging sign; folks are getting accustomed to good news.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=513982#513982

GM's market share has been slipping ... since the Beatles were together. An expanding overall market sorta moots the overall impact of market share; a fifth of a ten-pound pie is more than a quarter of a six-pound pie. While GM's market share declined overall in '03, at 28% vs 28.3% for 2002, for the last half it actually picked up from the pace earlier in the year, coming in at 28.7% for the period, For the full year, GM reported net income of $3.82 billion, or $7.14 a share, up from $1.74 billion, or $3.35 a share, in 2002. Revenue rose 4.6% to $185.52 billion from $177.32 billion the previous year, excluding the one-time gain realized from the spinoff of Hughes/DirecTV. The company's stock is trading some 60% higher than its year-ago low, closing today just under $50 as comapred to less than $30 a little less than a year ago. Over the past six months, GM has signioficantly outperformed the Dow and the S&P 500.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=565608#565608

Yahoo! Finance tracks the DOW back to 1928, and most individual stocks back to at least 1960, depending on how long the particular issue has been around. Things like name or symbol changes, mergers/acquisitions, and the like can muddy things a bit, but if you know what you're looking for, you can probably track it down. Its free, but I think you have to register to use it. I find it pretty handy. Yahoo has a very nice real-time market tracker you can populate with your own portfolios (and you can switch back-and-forth-among them), or with any stocks you select, and you can watch what's going on as the day unfolds, if you've got the stomach for it Upticks show in green, downticks in red, and it can be configured to show daily and YTD earnings standings, totasl portfolio value, most-actives, biggest gainers and losers, and lots of other things. That's a subscription/fee deal, but its cheap. It also lets you do various comparisons and lookups, as well as independently track another issue or index in a separate window. You'll need Java to use any of it. It runs all day on one of my machines; its kinda neat to actually see your own trades execute, and handy as hell to let you know when it would be a good idea to enter a trade on a given issue.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=622351#622351

Meanwhile, out there in the real world, the US securites markets are up across the board, with the Dow notching a comforting triple-digit gain, the NASDAQ up well over 45, and the S&P climbing nearly 17.

Don't see anything anywhere in any of that to cause me any distress. I feel pretty good about things, and the way they're goin', right now, actually.
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=930250#930250

Point well made, jibe well deserved, Merlin ... sorry for my part in the interuption.

As a weak defense, I could say I was just goin' over some stuff there that went to the point of my statistical analysis methods, which are key to my rejection of the "We wuz robbed" sillyness, but that would be a lame excuse, even if fairly accurate. The numbers, their history, and their trendings just don't support the allegations, IMO ... but then that's my opinion.

The people have legislated themselves into this mess, only they can legislate themselves out of it.

So to summarize: [If you want to explain the exit poll discrepancy] Absent further data from NEP, you can choose to believe that an existing problem with exit polls got worse this year in the face of declining response rates and rising distrust of big media, that a slightly higher number of Bush voters than Kerry voters declined to be interviewed. Or, you can believe that a massive secret conspiracy somehow shifted roughly 2% of the vote from Kerry to Bush in every battleground state, a conspiracy that fooled everyone but the exit pollsters - and then only for a few hours - after which they deliberately suppressed evidence of the fraud and damaged their own reputations by blaming the discrepancies on weaknesses in their data.

Please.

Don't get me wrong. I am disturbed by the notion of electronic voting machines with no paper record, and I totally support the efforts of those pushing for a genuine audit trail. If Ralph Nader or the Libertarians want to pay for recounts to press this point, I am all for it. I know vote fraud can happen, and I support efforts to pursue real evidence of such misdeeds. I am also frustrated by the lack of transparency and disclosure from NEP, even on such simple issues as reporting the sampling error for each state exit poll. Given the growing controversy, I hope they release as much data as possible on their investigation as soon as possible. The discrepancy also has very important implications for survey research generally, and pollsters everywhere will benefit by learning more about it.

Finally, I understand completely the frustration of Democratic partisans with the election results. I'm a Democrat too. Sure, it's tempting to engage in a little wishful thinking about the exit polls. However, to continue to see evidence of vote fraud in the "unexplained exit poll discrepancy" is more than wishful. It borders on delusional.

I suspect there are those who do not wish to believe the Republicans did not steal the election and they will continue to blame anybody and everybody but shortsighted Democrats for Kerry's loss on November 2.

Look at this Washington Monthly table on exit polls. Amazing but true: "the raw exit poll results always overstate the Democratic vote, sometimes by as much as eight percentage points". They predicted a Dukakis win by 0,6%, when Bush Sr won in fact by almost 8%. And both in 92 and 96, the raw exit poll data reported a Clinton lead of about twice the size than in fact materialised.

btw PM Blair (in todays Queen's Speech, a government policy statement) has evidently decided to use the tactic that worked so well for his friend George: exaggerate security risk for political gain.