I'd also be interested in pre- and post- videotape numbers -- the point this guy was making was that the numbers would go UP after the tape.
It's not so much that I doubt that his support is high, I'm wondering what kind of effect the videotape had.
I've been looking too, coming up with squat so far. Well I did find this, interesting analysis, more on the elder statesman/ Muslim audience aspect:
Quote:Intelligence experts were struck by Mr. bin Laden's tone and by his appearance: No guerrilla garb, no rifle, no direct threats, or religious rhetoric of the past. Bin Laden was wearing a traditional Arab white thobe and princely, gold-trimmed outer garment. With the fall of Saddam Hussein and the marginalization of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, "part of what bin Laden is trying to do is fill the vacuum of leadership in the Muslim world," says Bruce Hoffman, a RAND Corp. expert on terrorism. "Part of his game is to portray himself as a statesman."
http://search.csmonitor.com/2004/1101/p01s03-wosc.html
I'll plug in the "Jordan 99%" thing and see if that gets me anywhere.