@Lash,
Lash wrote:
I think the US ploy (brilliant or crazy, you decide) behind throwing a wrench in the Iran framework is to infuriate the people against their leadership, spark either a revolution or electoral rebuke of Iranian leadership, and support the more peace-loving anti-war younger generation as they build a thriving economy/ democracy.
That's what the Iran deal did. This does the opposite, it plays into the hands of the hardliners who said, (correctly as it turns out,) that America can't be trusted. In times of war the population tends to rally behind the leadership, regardless of popularity, look at Iraq.
In terms of geo politics this does Saudi Arabia no favours. The Saudis have tried to isolate Iran, and have reached a state of détente with Israel. If Israel starts bombing Iran, with inevitable civilian casualties then the Saudis will be seen as collaborators in American/Israeli imperialism. Sunni groups previously hostile towards Shia Iran will flip, they will back Iran as the only country fighting against imperialism.
Bahrain, where America has its fleet based, is populated by Shia, with a tiny ruling Sunni elite. Iran has plenty of contacts there, and if Israel does start bombing then there could well be 'terrorist' attacks on American interests.
Egypt and Jordan will want to keep out of it, and may need to do something other than the usual hand wringing. The UAE will have to be very careful about attacks on Western interests/people, because there's a **** ton of easy targets over there.
Russia may well come out of it as the only power interested in securing the human rights of the indigenous peoples of the ME. In any event the likelihood of terrorist attacks both home and abroad will shoot up.