@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:predicting yesterdays fooball game is within the skillset of us all. You are making slight changes in your "prediction set" from laste 2015, here you almost guaranteed that the GOP candidate would cruise into the White House.
My prediction was made in mid-2013.
While I'm sure I did not word my prediction exactly the same each time I typed it, the variance in wording did not change the prediction, which is the same today as it was in 2013.
farmerman wrote:BTW, most presidents second terms lack the big issue accomplishments of legislative programs,
Election to a second term does not generate as much political capital as election to a first term, but there is still a period at the beginning of the term when a president can push a legislative agenda with a good chance of success.
Getting a second term legislative agenda passed makes a very big difference in how successful the second term ultimately is.
farmerman wrote:Obama's was also seen from the rear view mirror .
Mid-2013 was towards the beginning of his second term.
farmerman wrote:So what is it youre actually predicting about the presidential race now??
My predictions are unchanged. The 2013 gun control debacle used up all of his second term political capital. This left his second term a legislative wasteland and made the 2016 voters extremely eager for change, which should push the Republican candidate into the White House.
I confess to not even considering Trump until the moment when it suddenly became overwhelmingly clear that he was definitely going to become the Republican nominee. But once I did consider him, I quickly made a second prediction, which is that once in office, Mr. Trump's anti-trade policies would prove so popular with the working class that the Democrats would be doomed. Picture how popular Hugo Chavez was in Venezuela. If he is elected, I predict that Mr. Trump will become an American Hugo Chavez. As such, I predict that the Republicans will hold the White House for 20 years minimum, and that the Democrats will only return to the White House when they give up on liberalism and nominate a Trump-lite for president.
Obviously my second prediction will only be able to be tested if Mr. Trump manages to get elected.
farmerman wrote:Is the GOP no longer a gurnteed sho-in for the White House??
Well, I'm not infallible. It has always been possible for me to be wrong.
Sometimes people wrongly accuse me of thinking that I'm infallible. I can never understand where people get such strange ideas.
My prediction that "the legislative wasteland would result in a very strong momentum for change" is completely on target, but a person would have to be blind to not see that Mr. Trump has some very serious flaws that are hampering his candidacy.
farmerman wrote:So its "Shut up and deal from you now eh?"
I'm not sure that I understand what that means. Obviously a card-playing metaphor of some kind.
I certainly agree that we'll have to wait until election day to see if Mr. Trump actually wins or not.
I've no objection to discussing my prediction in the meantime though.