Let's talk about replacing GWBush in 2004.

The federal budget deficit is expected to widen to a record $422 billion in fiscal 2004, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday in its summer update.

While that figure is $56 billion lower than the CBO's March estimate for this year's deficit, the congressional analysts noted "the deficits projected for 2006 and beyond have grown."

While the $422 billion is a record in nominal dollar terms, the deficit is nowhere close to a record as a percentage of gross domestic product. This year's deficit will be 3.6 percent of GDP; the record was set in 1943 at 30.3 percent. The post-war record was set in 1983 at 6 percent.

For the next fiscal year, which begins on Oct. 1, the deficit will likely shrink to $348 billion, or 2.8 percent of GDP. The 2003 deficit was $375 billion, or 3.5 percent of GDP.

But over the next 10 years, the budget deficit is projected to total $2.3 trillion, up about $300 billion from the earlier estimate.

"Even if the economy grows more rapidly than projected, significant long-term strains on the budget will start to intensify in the next decade as the baby-boom generation begins to reach retirement age," the CBO said.

After reaching $298 billion in 2006, the deficit is expected to rise to $318 billion in 2009 before declining to $65 billion in 2014. The CBO assumes that tax cuts currently set to expire will do so.

While the deficit would be substantially smaller in 2009 than its current level, the CBO predicts it would not be cut in half, as President Bush and his advisors have repeatedly pledged to do.

Watch an interview with White House Budget Director Josh Bolten at the Republican National Convention.

The new figures brought quick responses from both political parties in this presidential election year.

"Only George W. Bush could celebrate over a record budget deficit of $422 billion, a loss of 1.6 million jobs, and Medicare premiums that are up by a record 17 percent," Democratic hopeful Sen. John Kerry said in a statement.

On the Republican side, House Budget Committee Chairman Jim Nussle stressed the report's comparison to the March estimate.

"This report underscores that our policies are working to create a stronger economy, more jobs and a lower deficit," a statement from Nussle, R-Iowa, said.

Rep. John Spratt, the budget committee's ranking Democrat, said "there is no prospect of bringing the budget back to balance within the next ten years."

"The [projected] surplus of $5.6 trillion inherited by the Bush administration has vanished. In its place are large annual deficits for as far as the eye can see," said Spratt, D-S.C.

Robert Bixby, chairman of the Concord Coalition, a Washington group supporting fiscal responsibility, called the deficits of 2003 and 2004 the two largest back-to-back deficits in relation to the size of the economy in more than two decades.

"These numbers are a timely reminder that the deficit is a serious problem needing serious attention," Bixby said, "regardless of who wins the presidency or which party controls Congress after the elections, they are going to have to deal with the deficit."

Favorable growth outlook

The CBO also said the nation's economy has entered a phase of investment-led growth, in which the number of jobs is rising and real growth is rising faster than its trend rate.

"Indeed, CBO expects real [gross domestic product] to grow strongly enough that the current excess capacity in the economy will be eliminated by the end of calendar year 2005," the analysts said. They predicted U.S. growth of 4.5 percent for this year, down from 4.8 percent predicted in January, while growth next year will slow to 4.1 percent.

In addition, the CBO said that interest rates are expected to rise in the short term as the economy strengthens but that they're "likely to remain low by historical standards."

The report also said the federal government will reach the mandatory debt limit of $7.384 trillion sometime in mid-October.

The CBO is careful to note that its predictions are based on the assumption that existing laws and policies remain constant, while "actual budget totals will almost certainly differ from the baseline projections" because policy changes are inevitable.

...The administration always has projections which show the budget deficit falling in half over the next 5 years and each year they issue such a projection, and each year the deficit is bigger than the year before and they revise. These are not to be taken seriously!

The truth is that the current projection which says that the budget deficit is going to fall is based in part on expiring tax provisions which the administration is lobbying hard to have made permanent. So what they are actually saying is the budget deficit will shrink substantially according to our plan which depends upon Congress not doing what we ask them to do, a little bit peculiar.

It was standard operating procedure for the Army to hold some detainees in secret in Afghanistan for up to several months without reporting them to the International Committee of the Red Cross, according to military officers familiar with the policy.

A similar practice was later used at Iraq's Abu Ghraib prison, where the physical and sexual abuse of detainees prompted the Department of Defense to launch several sweeping investigations of its detention policies in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, three recently completed Pentagon investigations didn't examine the Army's practice of holding secret detainees, now known as "ghost detainees," and whether it may have contributed to abuse.

Most Brits want Bush out - poll
September 08 2004

London - A majority of Britons want Democrat candidate John Kerry to beat American President George Bush in the forthcoming November US election, according to a poll published in a Wednesday newspaper.

The survey by Populus - showing 52 percent of Britons back Kerry versus 29 percent for Bush - confirms the US leader's unpopularity in the nation considered his closest ally.

"In Britain, a clear majority of all age, social and political groups favour Mr Kerry," said The Times newspaper, which published the poll.

"Those preferences cross usual ideological alliances."

British Prime Minister Tony Blair has been scrupulously tight-lipped over a US election campaign which pits his closest ally on the world stage against a man who would be a much more natural political ally in terms of ideological roots.

Populus, which interviewed 1 009 people, said that among Britons who vote for Blair's Labour Party, 52 percent back Kerry and 38 percent Bush.

Among supporters of the right-wing opposition Conservative Party, the figures were broadly similar - 50 percent for Kerry, 35 percent for Bush.

Britain's Conservatives are traditional allies of the US Republicans. But at the weekend they accused the White House of barring Conservative leader Michael Howard from meeting Bush due to his criticism of Blair over Iraq.

Not surprisingly, among voters for Britain's third political party - the Liberal Democrats who opposed war in Iraq - the margin was wider, with 68 percent backing Kerry and just 20 percent wanting Bush to win.

walter

good morning (here it is)

I can't think there is another country outside of Israel where polls would favor Bush.

Yes.

Did you know that now, one in six Americans believe that the UN is properly described by the word 'enemy'? One in four believe that of France.

A majority of Britons want Democrat candidate John Kerry to beat American President George Bush in the forthcoming November US election,

The preference of many in "Old Europe" for Kerry (or anyone but Bush) is truly reflective of different prevailing views of the world in Europe and America.

So the UK (or just Britain) is now "Old Europe", too, and again.

That's what I always thaught :wink:

ps...only slightly related...

Canada is US's major trading partner. In five years, we won't be. China is closing fast.

I'm just wondering when the US will begin to suffer depopulation and world-weariness as China moves into ascention. Twenty years?