@Robert Gentel,
Quote Robert Gentel:
Quote:and if you really think you have refuted them you should publish your work and win a John Bates Clark Medal like Levitt did for your academic contribution to behavioral economics
I like to use the internet to go to the source. I'm allowed to do that, no? I posted the number of black murders and the years they occurred, and guess what-the correlation between the legalization of abortion and the decline of back murders do NOT match up. Over 10% of the black murders committed are committed by people between 14 and 17, and yet the number of murders does not stop increasing until 19 years after abortion was legalized. That's not a matchup.
Quote Robert Gentel:
Quote:Nope, the drop in crime that correlates to the legalization of abortion started in 1992 and peaked in 1995 because 18-24 year olds are the key demographic, not 15 year olds like you are focusing on.
Nope, the number of black murders did not start dropping consistently until 1994. Once again, those between ages of 14 through 17 commit over 10% of the murders, therefore the number of black murders must start declining at 1988 at the latest. The decline might take on more intensity as the post-abortion generation hits the 18-24 year old age group, but the decline will begin when the post abortion age group hits 14-IF abortion is the key reason for the decline.
This decline did not happen until the post abortion generation hit 19, indicating that the decline is mostly due to something ELSE which occurred in 1994.
Quote Robert Gentel:
Quote: It [the decline in black murders] didn't fit your cherry-picked age..
It might have happened to a degree, but the abortion analysis is clearly not a major driver of that drop in black murder rates.
I apologize to those who are offended by someone outside the criminology profession having the effrontery to commit arithmetic upon published official statistics and point out the claimed correlation is not there, but the fact is, the claimed correlation is not there.
Quote Robert Gentel:
Quote:The spike in black homicide that briefly overcame the effect of legalized abortion is due to the introduction of crack to inner cities and the subsequent epidemic it caused....
First time you mentioned crack. But if crack supposedly masked the effects of abortion on the murder rate, how do we know the effects were there at all?
Take a look at this chart for jobs for blacks age 16-24. This is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is obvious that jobs for young black people started moving sharply up right around 1994. For this, we can thank the Economic Stimulus Package introduced by Bill Clinton in 1993: