Scalia Dead

If the president doesn't nominate someone for the Supreme Court, then we are looking at a year or more with only 8 Justices on the court. Ties, in that event, would go to affirming any lower court's decisions.

Regardless of who you may want to see take office next year, that is a rather long time to just say to a lower court, "Never mind, you're good." It could be a massive waste of time, energy, and money.

And what if the 2000 election happens all over again? If the election is very close, and it ends up at the Supreme Court, I do hope everyone who is calling for delays is comfortable with the supreme court of Ohio or Florida deciding on our next president, in a not so impossible scenario.

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@Blickers,

Blickers wrote:

Not to mention, this business of now assuming Trump will be president makes for silly posts.

The damage that was done to Mr. Obama's second term by the 2013 gun control debacle is going to keep the Democrats out of the White House for 20 years.

Mr. Trump will be elected president in 2016 and 2020. Other Republicans will be elected president in 2024, 2028, and 2032.

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one of the great legal minds of our time. Always enjoyed reading his arguments and how he could simplify complex matters.

Rest in peace.

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@oralloy,

Quote woiyo:

Quote:

The damage that was done to Mr. Obama's second term by the 2013 gun control debacle is going to keep the Democrats out of the White House for 20 years.

Mr. Trump will be elected president in 2016 and 2020. Other Republicans will be elected president in 2024, 2028, and 2032.

You don't know that at all. If you're judging by the 2014 elections, remember that the Democrats don't turn out for midterm elections. Dick Morris predicted a substantial Romney victory by using midterm elections as a gauge to predict Presidential elections, and found himself out of a job. Check out this video of Morris using an average of the previous four elections-two midterms, two Presidential-to predict how Democratic voters will turn out for the 2012 Presidential election, and how sure he was that it spelled doom for Obama. Two days after the election, Morris was out of a job. Skip to 3:08 of the video for the heart of the argument:

Your posts assuming Trump will be President are using the same disastrous method as Dick {Brother Can You Spare A Dime) Morris.

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@Blickers,

Blickers wrote:

Quote woiyo:

If you go to this page: http://able2know.org/account/preferences/

There is a selection called "Show quote button" that, if you turn it on, will make it easier to quote posts without attributing them to the wrong person.

Blickers wrote:

You don't know that at all.

Let's compare notes in 2033 and see if Mr. Trump won two presidential terms followed by three more Republican presidential victories.

Blickers wrote:

Your posts assuming Trump will be President are using the same disastrous method as Dick {Brother Can You Spare A Dime) Morris.

No they aren't. They are based on the fact that the 2013 gun control debacle destroyed Mr. Obama's second term, and that waste of an entire second term is going to hand the White House to the Republicans for 20 years.

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@oralloy,

My mistake, I attributed your quote to Woiyo.

Quote Oralloy:

Quote:

They are based on the fact that the 2013 gun control debacle destroyed Mr. Obama's second term, and that waste of an entire second term is going to hand the White House to the Republicans for 20 years.

You have no evidence of that at all, other than trying to attribute the substantial 2014 Republican midterm victory mostly to the gun control issue, and going further out on a limb and saying that this will propel Republicans to victory for the next five presidential elections. You fail to take into account that Democrats traditionally vote in midterm elections at a substantially reduced rate.

You are making silly posts.

By the way, when Obama first took office, the country had LOST 6 Million Full Time jobs the previous year. Now the country has GAINED 2.5 Million Full Time jobs in the past 12 months alone, and over 5 Million Full Time jobs in the past two years. This is your idea of a wasted second term?

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@Blickers,

Blickers wrote:

My mistake, I attributed your quote to Woiyo.

That "show quote button" function on the settings page that I linked really is handy.

Blickers wrote:

You have no evidence of that at all,

Let's compare notes in 2033 and see how everything turned out.

Blickers wrote:

other than trying to attribute the substantial 2014 Republican midterm victory mostly to the gun control issue,

I initially made my prediction in 2013, well before the midterm elections even occurred. They have nothing to do with my prediction.

Blickers wrote:

You fail to take into account that Democrats traditionally vote in midterm elections at a substantially reduced rate.

That's because the midterm elections have nothing to do with my prediction.

Blickers wrote:

You are making silly posts.

Let's compare notes in 2033 and see how everything turned out.

I think it was Thomas who suggested I try betting money on my prediction. I wonder what the odds are of Mr. Trump winning two terms, followed by three more Republican presidential victories. I might be able to become quite wealthy in 20 years.

Blickers wrote:

By the way, when Obama first took office, the country had LOST 6 Million Full Time jobs the previous year. Now the country has GAINED 2.5 Million Full Time jobs in the past 12 months alone, and over 5 Million Full Time jobs in the past two years. This is your idea of a wasted second term?

The economic stimulus was passed in his first term.

The only legislative achievement Mr. Obama has for his second term is a big temper tantrum about the NRA.

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@oralloy,

Quote Blickers:

Quote:

...other than trying to attribute the substantial 2014 Republican midterm victory mostly to the gun control issue,

Quote Oralloy:

Quote:

I initially made my prediction in 2013, well before the midterm elections even occurred. They have nothing to do with my prediction.

Then you have nothing at all to prove or even suggest that the gun control issue will give the Republicans the White House for 20 years. Your bet is not proof, and besides who even knows if message boards will be in existence in 20 years. By that time we might all have imperceptible electrodes stuck to our scalp creating mind-reading images over the internet. Instead of Able2Know, the place might be titled, WeAlreadyKnow. Mr. Green

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@Blickers,

Blickers wrote:

Then you have nothing at all to prove or even suggest that the gun control issue will give the Republicans the White House for 20 years. Your bet is not proof, and besides who even knows if message boards will be in existence in 20 years. By that time we might all have imperceptible electrodes stuck to our scalp creating mind-reading images over the internet. Instead of Able2Know, the place might be titled, WeAlreadyKnow.

The proof will come when we see the election results. I'll either be right or wrong. I am confident that I will be right. But I do not claim infallibility.

I am not saying that the issue of gun control will directly be responsible for the election victories. The significance of gun control is that it destroyed Mr. Obama's second term. That waste of a second term is what damaged the Democratic Party so severely.

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@oralloy,

Well, you're just making a prediction with no proof, so it's not worth much. Right now Congress is a lot less popular than Obama, so your idea that there will be a revolt by the voters to the benefit of the GOP seems pretty far fetched. Besides, this "wasted second term" business is largely media hype. Take a look at the chart of the Employment-Population Ratio for the 25-54 age group-good things are happening out there in the second term.

http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/ah279/LeviStubbs/Employment%20Populatin%20ratio%2025-54%20%201993%20thru%202015%20Clinton%20bush%20Obama_zpszgighom9.jpg

Meanwhile, Congress does nothing but try to take down Obama. How you figure this is going to redound to the Republicans' benefit, especially during Presidential election years, is unfathomable. Meanwhile, your posts assuming Trump's presidency as an accomplished fact remain silly.

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@Blickers,

Another issue is the "do nothing congress" when there are so many issues they needed to address.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/16/do-nothing-congress_n_6488942.html

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@cicerone imposter,

I agree that this Congress hasn't done much, but I wonder how much if how many bills you pass is that good a gauge of the Congress. I think working on behalf of a few good initiatives that make a positive difference is a better measure, although this Congress seems to be lacking both in quantity of bills and quality. How many times did they try to repeal Obamacare?

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@Blickers,

There are many issues of today that most people are concerned about. They're ignoring the public. Taxation, government waste, employment, the increasing spread between the rich and middle class/poor, salary and wage stagnation, and the increasing difficulty of the middle class to buy homes.

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http://images.dailykos.com/images/209595/story_image/TMW2016-02-17color.png?1455487171

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Here's what I think will happen (and it's just an educated guess):

1) Obama will nominate a replacement
2) He will opt for a moderate replacement, not one that is clearly leftist (nominating a clear left-leaning judge would unify the opposition and likely prevent the nomination).
3) This will hurt the Democrats a bit in the election (there will be a backlash from the left if the opportunity is not used to do so) but it will be done to highlight the political nature of Republican obstructionism (especially if he picks someone who has already been universally approved).
4) Democrats, in turn, will put pressure on Republicans for their obstructionism, putting pressure on them to hold hearings on the nominee and possibly approve, or face the chance of losing upcoming elections throughout the country.

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@Robert Gentel,

The threat of losing an election doesn't seem to be their concern if past actions are an indication. Gridlock should be a death warrant, but they don't seem worried.

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@Robert Gentel,

Here's what I think will happen:
Obama will nominate someone left of center, because he knows that the individual ideology or the merits of anyone he nominates will not matter to the obstinate obstructionists of the GOP, or effect their refusal to even bring the person up for consideration. So knowing that, he will nominate someone he really wants on the SCOTUS as opposed to someone more "acceptable" to the Republicans.

The fierce opposition to any Obama nominee will bring scolding and posturing in the media from the Left, and that will be all the "pressure" they will muster. I don't think there's anything they can do about the shameful obstruction antics of the Right, and my belief is supported by the long record of other appointees of Obama the Right have stymied during Obama's presidency.

Obama will leave office with a 4/4 SCOTUS remaining undisturbed. The Democratic President-elect will take up the task and nominate a Left leaning jurist, and after a months-too-long process of Republican stalling and obstruction, we will finally achieve a Supreme Court that leans progressive.

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@snood,

I agree with almost all of that, especially that I think it's unlikely to get through before the election either way.

I just think that it won't be someone very left of center.

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@snood,

The other possibility is that the Senate will hold on until the election. If a Democrat is elected, they will act on Obama's nomination and we'll have someone before the end of November.

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@engineer,

engineer wrote:

The other possibility is that the Senate will hold on until the election. If a Democrat is elected, they will act on Obama's nomination and we'll have someone before the end of November.

Well, one thing's for sure - this death sure increased the importance of electing a Democrat.

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