23
   

Justice Anton Scalia Reportedly Found Dead At Texas Resort

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 02:34 pm
From Corey Robin
Quote:
Scalia: The Donald Trump of the Supreme Court
http://bit.ly/1mDyt6G
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 03:42 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
I posted this elsewhere but here is what I predict (just a quick educated guess, I am no expert):

1) Obama will nominate a replacement
2) He will opt for a moderate replacement, not one that is clearly leftist (nominating a clear left-leaning judge would unify the opposition and likely prevent the nomination).
3) This will hurt the Democrats a bit in the election (there will be a backlash from the left if the opportunity is not used to do so) but it will be done to highlight the political nature of Republican obstructionism (especially if he picks someone who has already been universally approved).
4) Democrats, in turn, will put pressure on Republicans for their obstructionism, putting pressure on them to hold hearings on the nominee and possibly approve, or face the chance of losing upcoming elections throughout the country.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 04:26 pm
One possible scenario is that Obama's nominee may be fodder for a bitter response from GOP nominees and the legion of voting anti-Obamas that will produce more of a GOP-voting impetus.

This type of election year battle feeds into the machinations of the darker personalities on both sides of the aisle.

But I think he has to do it, right or wrong.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 04:30 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
What tortured explanation? Read the story and what was actually reported.
Quote:

Schumer said there were four lessons to be learned from Alito and Roberts: Confirmation hearings are meaningless, a nominee’s record should be weighed more heavily than rhetoric, “ideology matters” and “take the president at his word.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2007/07/schumer-to-fight-new-bush-high-court-picks-005146#ixzz40HF1VQn1


Then you might want to read Schumer's actual words.
Quote:
[F]or the rest of this President’s term and if there is another Republican elected with the same selection criteria let me say this:


We should reverse the presumption of confirmation. The Supreme Court is dangerously out of balance. We cannot afford to see Justice Stevens replaced by another Roberts; or Justice Ginsburg by another Alito.


Given the track record of this President and the experience of obfuscation at the hearings, with respect to the Supreme Court, at least: I will recommend to my colleagues that we should not confirm a Supreme Court nominee EXCEPT in extraordinary circumstances.


They must prove by actions—not words—that they are in the mainstream, rather than the Senate proving that they are not.

https://www.schumer.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/schumer-declares-democrats-hoodwinked-into-confirming-chief-justice-roberts-urges-higher-burden-of-proof-for-any-future-bush-nominees

Schumer did not say they wouldn't confirm someone if by some chance Bush had another nomination. He specifically mentions the next Republican president which precludes this being an attempt to block any nomination in the last year of Bush.

Schumer is doing nothing more than laying criteria for how to vote or not vote for nominations. It would be impossible to read that with an open mind and not take that as the final result. In fact, you could easily change it to conservative talking points and expect the same thing from them in consideration of nominees.

For instance, do you disagree with this?
Quote:


Senators have an obligation to scrutinize the character and philosophies of judicial nominees, and nominees have an obligation to cooperate. This is especially when a nominee's ideology, judicial philosophy, and constitutional views are central considerations in the President's decision to nominate.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 04:35 pm
@Robert Gentel,
I think that's exactly right, Robert. I'd just add that I think the GOP will act exactly as McConnell has suggested. They will block any confirmation.
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 04:39 pm
@blatham,
Agreed, I don't see it likely to break the impasse before the election. I just wonder when the obstructionism will start to stick to Republicans and cost them more politically.
Setanta
 
  4  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 04:46 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
I just wonder when the obstructionism will start to stick to Republicans and cost them more politically.


Unf0rtunately, i don't see that happening any time soon. The extremist conservative core is not looking for any balance, not considering the possible cost to the nation of obstructionist behavior. They applaud it--these are the same yokels who consider Mr. Obama to be a dangerous socialist. That sort of block-headed refusal to look objectively at the political situation combined with the successful gerrymandering of congressional districts in the states suggest to me that the Republicans can get away with it for a long time, with no real political costs to themselves.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 05:02 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Quote:
I just wonder when the obstructionism will start to stick to Republicans and cost them more politically.

Yes. That's the unknown. A hopeful aspect to this is that McConnell and crowd haven't arrived where they are (with this problem) because of some brilliant political strategy. They are now forced to follow this path because the base they helped create demands it.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 05:03 pm
@Setanta,
Probably I should have read your reply before I wrote mine.
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 05:27 pm
@Setanta,
If they loose enough of the center it will hurt them, not sure how much (hasn't been much so far) but I'm hoping their majority will soon be threatened by the obstructionism and do believe if the Democrats were more politically competent they could realistically extract a higher price for it.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 06:14 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Well, i hope so, too. I'm rather cynical about it, though, because the Democrats have not shown themselves able to exploit this issue--and given the fanaticism that the extreme right of the Republican Party shows, and the ability that party has shown to turn out the vote, i'm not at all hopeful. What the Democrats really need to do is to turn out the vote, and that is something else they don't seem to have been able to do in recent generations. Will all of this enthusiasm for Mr. Sanders result in a higher voter turnout? I am not convinced. Much of his support comes from young people, who are notorious for not voting.
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 06:19 pm
@Setanta,
One of the theories I'm entertaining is that Democrats should not try to get someone who will work with them better and will instead better represent their own more polarized party too.

I'm not sure I believe that Clinton would be better than Sanders in working with them just because she is closer to their positions. Compromise didn't get Obama very far.

It might be time for Democrats to swing for the fences. Republicans are playing long ball while Democrats are playing small ball. Maybe it's time to for Democrats to try long ball.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 06:58 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Yes, that's possibly true. One of the problems the Democrats have faced for a long time is not really knowing who their base were. The notion of "limousine liberals" is rather ironic considering that they held telethons in the 1970s and well into the 1990s, because they couldn't pay off their campaign debts. They also began touting their "big tent" approach, attempting to be all things to all voters. (The big tent idea was, ironically, originally a Republican Party idea.) They have not been a single-issue party for a very long time. They have often, in fact, been their own worst enemy in campaigning. In 1968, they delayed the official campaign (even though everyone knew Humphrey would be the candidate) so that they could have a big party for LBJ, whose birthday was August 27th. Humphrey steadily decreased Nixon's lead throughout the campaign, and the three week delay proved crucial. (I got to talk Humphrey in 1968 when he came for a campaign dinner at the university i attended at the time. Despite his reputation for being too verbose, he asked us questions--six student workers who were setting up the ballroom--and he listened to the answers, and responded to their content.) Robert Kennedy had been assassinated, Martin Luther King had been assassinated, anti-war demonstrators had disrupted the convention--and yet Humphrey came within 2% of Nixon's plurality. Hell, George Wallace ran as a third candidate, bleeding off more Democratic votes. In light of the circumstances, Humphrey's performance was impressive. He got out the youth vote, despite being associated in the public mind with LBJ and the war. The Democrats need to do that again, but i don't see a Hubert Humphrey on their political horizon, and i don't think the big tent philosophy has served the Democrats very well.

Ah well, we can only hope.
0 Replies
 
joefromchicago
 
  2  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 07:57 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:
I am referring to Mr. Obama wasting every last bit of his second term's political capital in a fruitless assault against the indomitable might of the NRA. It was like a political version of Pickett's Charge.

You evidently live a rich and fulfilling fantasy life.
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 08:01 pm
https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfl1/v/t1.0-0/s526x395/12729243_10154005084109255_6232048912272686863_n.jpg?oh=3767710e497acd5d51496cc6fea67e48&oe=5725873E
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 11:10 pm
@joefromchicago,
joefromchicago wrote:
oralloy wrote:
I am referring to Mr. Obama wasting every last bit of his second term's political capital in a fruitless assault against the indomitable might of the NRA. It was like a political version of Pickett's Charge.

You evidently live a rich and fulfilling fantasy life.

No. But I have a very good memory.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 15 Feb, 2016 11:11 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
4) Democrats, in turn, will put pressure on Republicans for their obstructionism, putting pressure on them to hold hearings on the nominee and possibly approve, or face the chance of losing upcoming elections throughout the country.

There is little risk for Republicans who refuse to confirm Mr. Obama's nominee. If anyone complains, all the Republicans need to do is point out what the Democrats did with Bush's nominees in 2008.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Feb, 2016 04:37 am
@edgarblythe,
Oh that is quite brilliant, edgar. I like that very much.
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Feb, 2016 10:44 am
@oralloy,
I am not able to quantify the risk but I think what is at stake is the Republican majority. I think that refusing to confirm any nomination would put greater pressure on the Republicans in their efforts to maintain this majority.

I am not able to say which way this will fall. I do not yet think there is enough information to do so without misplaced strength of conviction.
0 Replies
 
jcboy
 
  2  
Reply Tue 16 Feb, 2016 04:51 pm
From the mouth of Reagan But lets not confuse the GOP supporters with facts! They seem to be enjoying their parallel universe way too much!

President Reagan on "Constitutional obligation"

0 Replies
 
 

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