1
   

Sudan: a Third Front?

 
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Aug, 2004 05:42 pm
FreeDuck wrote:
Quote:
So here we are. Is an unstable Iran with a nuke capable of taking out Israel or the Saudi oilfields or Ankara acceptable? At what point is it worth American blood and treasure to deal with it? Or do we just live with it?


If I were Iran, I'd want a nuke. It is apparently the only deterrent to US invasion, ie North Korea.

How many countries should we invade to prevent them from having the same capabilities that we already have? Isn't there any other alternative?


kind of a catch 22 isn't it? The only reason we WOULD invade is to stop them from getting a nuke.
0 Replies
 
squinney
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Aug, 2004 06:24 pm
The Sudan situation truly saddens me, as all loss of life does. I'm not familiar with their politics or why 100,000 would march in the streets in favor of what is happening, but I'm just pessimistic enough to suspect self preservation.

How could we do anything about it without the UN? Without other forces from other countries? We obviously can't take on a third front.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Aug, 2004 11:03 am
Despite noble hopes of a diplomatic solution in Sudan, it has been the history of these situations in the 20th/21st centuries that the only diplomacy the bad guys understand is via bombs and bullets. What else could be offered by the UN or anybody else when the objective is extermination of undesirables and absolute control?
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Aug, 2004 11:10 am
what foxfyre, have we given up using the "terrorist" word with the "bad guys" as a substitution? and you forgot to mention 9/11, surely someone in the Sudan is co-responsible for 9/11, cause it's in the GOP talking points to always mention it regardless of the question on the table, like "Is the drought effecting crop production in the southwest?" answer "Well, you have to remember this is all after 9/11 and that changes everything"
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Aug, 2004 11:22 am
Quote:
What else could be offered by the UN or anybody else when the objective is extermination of undesirables and absolute control?


Oh how easy it would be to make this an argument for bombing Israel. But you have valiantly gotten the thread back on track and so I will follow.

What is your suggestion, Fox? Full scale invasion, or just bombing a few strategic areas?
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Aug, 2004 12:54 pm
I wonder if I'll live long enough to have Dys actually address the issue being discussed instead of changing it into something else?

Wow Freeduck, if I knew the answer for your question, I could be coronated as the dictator I would like to be. Of course I want to be dictator of the world for a year, and other countries might object.

The point is countless efforts at diplomacy have not worked re Israel vs Palestine; the UN vs Saddam; North vs South Korea; China vs Taiwan, etc. Now in some cases the threat of military and/or economic retaliation has produced an uneasy peace. In cases of radical Islamic fundamentalism, however, diplomacy seems to fall on deaf ears. Military threats are no longer much of a deterrance since the 'bad guys" (or Dys seems to prefer 'terrorists') know Americans, at least since WWII, have typically tucked tail and run if they encounter strong resistance. They know all they have to do is make it messy, Americans will turn against the government, and American troops then soon leave. The Sudanese terrorists have as much said so in their taunts to us.

But how do we stand by and watch thousands of innocent people slaughtered just because somebody thinks they don't need to live? We did that in WWII while Hitler exterminated 6 million Jews. How in good conscience can we do that again?

What do you think the American will is to use force, if necessary?
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Aug, 2004 03:07 pm
Quote:
The point is countless efforts at diplomacy have not worked re Israel vs Palestine; the UN vs Saddam; North vs South Korea; China vs Taiwan, etc. Now in some cases the threat of military and/or economic retaliation has produced an uneasy peace. In cases of radical Islamic fundamentalism, however, diplomacy seems to fall on deaf ears.


Well, I don't know a whole lot about the nature of the Sudanese conflict other than the fact that they just recovered from civil war not too long ago, but is there a religious element to that conflict? I wasn't aware that the government there was made up of radical fundamentalists.

Quote:
Military threats are no longer much of a deterrance since the 'bad guys" (or Dys seems to prefer 'terrorists') know Americans, at least since WWII, have typically tucked tail and run if they encounter strong resistance. They know all they have to do is make it messy, Americans will turn against the government, and American troops then soon leave. The Sudanese terrorists have as much said so in their taunts to us.


I don't think that is the impression of American power at all. If anything, we have a reputation for using too much force. What our enemies might be aware of, and our government might not, is that when an empire tries to reach too far it is weakened.

This conflict to me seems regional. I think we should support UN and AU efforts to put peacekeeping forces inside Sudan, then wait and see what happens.
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Aug, 2004 04:18 pm
Quote:

The point is countless efforts at diplomacy have not worked re Israel vs Palestine; the UN vs Saddam;


These examples seem awfully ignorant based on the facts...

Israel and Palestine has always been more military than diplomacy. True efforts at diplomacy-- like the Geneva Accords have been rejected by both sides.

The UN vs. Saddam proved that diplomacy did work. Saddam was contained, had no WMD's and wasn't a threat to his neighbors or the US.

China and Taiwan is a perfect example where peace is better than war. Taiwan is thriving and millions of lives have been spared because there was no conflict.

And will even Foxy argue that war against North Korea would have been preferrable to the (albeit uneasy) peace we have had for the past 45 years. I bet any South Korean would say that we made the right choice.

Thanks Foxy. Those were excellent examples to show that diplomacy is preferable to war.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Aug, 2004 05:08 pm
Um ebrown it was not diplomacy but a very big club that has kept North and South Korea apart and China and Taiwan apart and that had kept Saddam contained however poorly. Maybe its time to try a big club with Israel and Palestine as all the diplomatic efforts have seemed to make it worse.

Or maybe your definition of diplomacy is simply the absence of invasion?
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Aug, 2004 05:30 pm
The next front is Nigeria. The third biggest potential reserves lie there and the Muslim takeover has begun. Weve quietly sent a carrier task force offshore (in the middle of the oil field) If someone cares to look up where task groups are being deployed, Im sure we'll find one off Nigeria. This has me more worried , because we dont have the cojones to attack someone with known nukes and long range rockets.
0 Replies
 
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Aug, 2004 05:41 pm
Just as we forced Japan into war by strangling their oil supply you say we will be provoked in order to maintain our supply Farmerman?
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Aug, 2004 06:28 pm
panzade
I dont agree with your first statement at all. The Meiji Constitution and Japans growing world power during the late 1800s was a self generated reaason, we had little to do with "strangling their oil supply". we didnt really try strangulation until after they attacked and subjegated Manchuria in 1931

Why we are sending a task force into the nigerian Coastal waters is not fully understood by me, unless were still trying to save whats-is -name , (president Tqylor) from liberia.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Aug, 2004 07:41 am
I hadn't given any thought to Nigeria, at all Farmerman, and thought your observation curious. Did some quick research and found this link that seemed believable:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/nigeria.html

I had remembered that Nigeria was predominantly a Christian country some years ago. I noted that Christians comprise only 40% of the population while Islam has swelled to 50%. This only affirms your take on it I think.

The most compelling information in the article, however, is that it seems to be primarily U.S. oil companies handling the oil production there and that recent civil unrest is interfering with the oil production. Is it possible that this factors in the current high oil prices here? Even if it doesn't, a case can be made, for good or ill, that what happens to Nigeria affects U.S. interests.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Aug, 2004 07:47 am
Sudan on the other hand does not seem to have as much implication for the U.S. but UN and US efforts to deal with that problem continue.

Quote:
The United States has imposed economic sanctions against Sudan since November 1997, prohibiting trade between the two countries, as well as investment by U.S. businesses in Sudan. In February 2000, the sanctions were broadened to include a prohibition against U.S. citizens and companies conducting business with the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC), an international consortium of petroleum companies currently extracting oil from Sudan. The sanctions, however, did not apply to the foreign individual parent companies of GNPOC, which included (at the time) Calgary-based Talisman Energy, Malaysia's Petronas, and the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington DC, U.S.-Sudanese relations appear to have improved somewhat, as the United States is attempting to encourage Sudanese cooperation in the war against terrorism. Sudan reacted unfavorably to the passage of the Sudan Peace Act in October 2002, which outlines stiff sanctions, ranging from a downgrading of diplomatic relations to a UN arms embargo, that could be imposed on the Sudanese government if it negotiates in bad faith with the country's main rebel force, the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), based in the primarily non-Muslim, non-Arab south of Sudan. In April 2004, however, President Bush decided not to impose additional sanctions under the Sudan Peace Act as part of a strategy aimed at encouraging the country's peace process.

Sudan's costly, bloody 21-year internal conflict with the SPLA and other rebel movements has, over the past two decades, claimed (directly or indirectly through famine) as many as two million Sudanese lives. In May 2004, after two years of negotiations (starting with the July 2002 Machakos Protocol), the government and SPLA reached agreement on several major issues -- sharing of oil revenues (50/50), the application of Islamic religious law (will not be applied in the South), self-determination for the southern Sudan (a referendum on secession will be held after a transitional period of six years), etc. A final resolution of Sudan's civil war could greatly help the country's economy, lead to the lifting of various sanctions against the country, and encourage investment by foreign companies (including oil companies).


http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/sudan.html
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Aug, 2004 08:32 am
Good stuff fox. Im more concerned because the recent big finds of oil off Nigeria , and the growingIslamic targeting, make it a strategic area. I know for a fact that a tsak force is there but i cannot find a damn thing about it on the web. maybe Im not supposed to know.
Oh well, as oil becomes a commodity that is competed for in a growing worldwide auction, maybe increased wealth in the oil producers will trickle down to the people who populate the madrasses. Yeh dream on farmerman.
0 Replies
 
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Aug, 2004 08:48 am
A noble dream
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Aug, 2004 08:51 am
Yes, the press is uncharacteristically quiet on this one. In fact I hadn't heard about it at all until Farmerman's post and that got me interested. I would think if the U.S. is maneuvering for damage control or whatever in Nigeria, they would expect the U.S. public might see this as a negative thing. But then until such time as we either secure the nation's oil supply or render it unnecessary, I would think $20/gallon gasoline would be seen as a negative thing too.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Aug, 2004 09:03 am
Ive always been of the opinion that the auto/oil conjoined twins wouldnt make any major changes in the status quo until they are dragged screaming.
then, its amazing how quickly research can generate new solutions. If gas got so expensive that it would thwart sales, then wed take research steps to come up with new and availble fuels. Like coal distillates, hydrogen ect. Hell, we could have a hydrogen car and a H2 infrastructure up and running within 2 model years if it came down to the 'river card"

No administration (this one included) has come up with an energy policy because theres really no reason.
NO MORE OIL IN 3 YEARS=for real!!

That would get everyones attention and there would be a huge profit motive. I dont want to go into wars over my right to drive my AWD trucks
0 Replies
 
jpinMilwaukee
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Aug, 2004 09:14 am
Farmerman,

I read an article (I will look for link) a few weeks back that talked about how the Navy changed how they make up these task forces. The article went on to say that they were sending out the largest amount of boats ever at the same time to show that while the Marines and Army may be stretched thin the Navy is still around and ready to move into action if needed. Kind of a flexing of military might kind of thing. I will look for a link.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Aug, 2004 09:17 am
They keep finding more and more oil reserves, however. I read recently--can't tell you where but it has been in the last 30 days--that there are as many known oil reserves now as we have ever known to exist. Compared to other forms of energy, oil is plentiful, efficient, practical, and cheap.

My son (an engineer with Conoco Phillips) explained in language way too technical for me to follow why hydrogen fueled cars would be far too costly and impractical and would be even less energy conserving and possibly less environmentally friendly than using diesel and gasoline. He believes other alternate forms of energy for transportation will be developed for universal use long before hydrogen can be made practical.

The logical way to go of course is nuclear, but there is the ever present hazards inherent in the production of nuclear energy and also in waste dispoal that would be a huge hurdle to get over with the environmentalists. Also didn't I learn once that 1 out of 4 Americans has some dependence on transportation for their livelihood? The economic impact is always a consideration.

I don't disagree that necessity is the mother of invention and American technology would produce a solution quickly if we learned we simply had to do it.

In the near future, however, the policy of fostering peaceful coexistence in and between the world's oil rich nations seems the most practical policy.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

Obama '08? - Discussion by sozobe
Let's get rid of the Electoral College - Discussion by Robert Gentel
McCain's VP: - Discussion by Cycloptichorn
Food Stamp Turkeys - Discussion by H2O MAN
The 2008 Democrat Convention - Discussion by Lash
McCain is blowing his election chances. - Discussion by McGentrix
Snowdon is a dummy - Discussion by cicerone imposter
TEA PARTY TO AMERICA: NOW WHAT?! - Discussion by farmerman
 
Copyright © 2024 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.96 seconds on 12/22/2024 at 07:49:44