How important are Hispanic voters in the 2016 Elections?

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http://lawstreetmedia.com/issues/politics/part-will-hispanic-voters-play-2016-elections/

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[+3] - maxdancona - 12/24/2015[quote] In 2012, Romney got the highest percentage of the white vote of any candidate, yet he still lost by 5 Million votes. In order to have a chance at the Presidency, the Republicans have to...
[+3] - maxdancona - 12/25/2015[quote="Brandon"]The United States, like every other country, has the right to enforce immigration laws and people who have entered or remained in the country illegally can fairly be...
[+3] - engineer - 01/04/2016[quote="puzzledperson"] It also appears that the Hispanic vote is neither as monolithic nor as consistent as is commonly supposed. [/quote] Reagan correctly identified Hispanic voters...
[+3] - RABEL222 - 01/18/2016And like Lash you'll be a loooooooong time getting anyone to pay much attention to what the two of you have to say about the Clintons.

@Miller,

Miller wrote:

http://lawstreetmedia.com/issues/politics/part-will-hispanic-voters-play-2016-elections/

I did not read the article in the link; however, Hispanics are not one monolithic ethnic group. Plus, those that have converted to Evangelical Christianity may be more oriented towards conservative politics?

If you are not aware, Bloomberg was initially voted in as the NYC mayor due to the Hispanics supposedly splitting their vote between Mark Green and Michael Bloomberg. For Mark Green to have won, the Hispanics would have had to vote en masse for Mark Green. They didn't, because the belief supposedly was that Michael Bloomberg, being a billionaire, knew the arcane secrets of creating new jobs. So, whether that was correct thinking, or not, it might just show that a popular notion, true or not, can win elections.

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@Miller,

interesting article

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@Miller,

Surprised this only got a few responses. Hispanic vote is crucial. The Democrats rely on getting near 70 percent of it during Presidential elections, yet occasionally the Hispanic votes swings toward the Republicans. Not a majority toward Republicans, but a large enough minority to put a dent in the Democrats.

In 2012, Romney got the highest percentage of the white vote of any candidate, yet he still lost by 5 Million votes. In order to have a chance at the Presidency, the Republicans have to pick up minority votes. The African American vote is largely out of reach, the Asian vote is not that large yet, so that leaves Hispanics.

If only 55% or 60% of the Hispanic vote goes to the Democrats, the Republicans have a legit shot at the Presidency in 2016. If the Democrats get more than that, it hard to see how the Republicans can win.

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@Blickers,

Quote:

In 2012, Romney got the highest percentage of the white vote of any candidate, yet he still lost by 5 Million votes. In order to have a chance at the Presidency, the Republicans have to pick up minority votes. The African American vote is largely out of reach, the Asian vote is not that large yet, so that leaves Hispanics.

I agree with you in general. But it is true that the greater percentage of White/non-Hispanic votes the Republicans get the fewer Hispanic votes they need. There is a path to victory (albeit a narrow one) that involves focusing on White people.

The problem that Republican candidates have is that their base is largely White. To win the nomination you have to promise that you will protect White people from minorities on a number of levels. Republicans are dominated by White people afraid of Mexicans stealing their jobs, Black people taking their money with welfare and Middle Eastern Terrorists.

The shibboleths any Republicans must utter to have any chance win the primary nomination guarantees that a large number of Hispanic voters will hate him or her.

And so, the Republican nominee, be it Trump or be it Rubio, will have to rely mainly on scared White voters to win the election.

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@maxdancona,

When I said that Romney got the highest percentage of the white vote, I meant in electoral history, not just the 2012 election. So yes, you are correct in saying that there is a very narrow Republican path to victory. The Republicans would have to "turn" those whites who normally vote Democratic to the GOP, not an easy thing to do. The way most elections are won is by turning out one's base in really good numbers. Actually going over and taking the other guy's base voters is the mark of an incredibly superior candidate.

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@Blickers,

My point is that there is no way to win the all important angry-scared white vote in the Republican primary without alienating Hispanic voters in the general election that follows.

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The theory I hear frequently is that in order to get the Hispanic vote, a candidate has to be in favor of giving amnesty to Hispanic people in the country illegally. The theory seems to depend on the assumption that no Hispanic voter respects the rule of law and wants illegals, from whatever country, deported, but all only see race. It's like assuming that I am on the side of white people no matter what their behavior. The assumption seems in and of itself racist.

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@Brandon9000,

By all means, keep thinking and talking along those lines. The Democrats will love to take in all the Hispanic voters you drive over to us.

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@maxdancona,

Quote Maxdancona:

Quote:

My point is that there is no way to win the all important angry-scared white vote in the Republican primary without alienating Hispanic voters in the general election that follows.

Agreed.

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@Blickers,

Marco Rubio has the only shot to pull this off.

He can do this by playing this game... he will say one thing in English and another in Spanish, assuring each audience that he is really in their camp and is just appeasing the other to win the election. He has to be perfect... he can't afford a single slip up, but he might just be able to pull this off.

He has already started this, it is interesting to watch (even though I hope he fails).

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@Blickers,

Blickers wrote:

By all means, keep thinking and talking along those lines. The Democrats will love to take in all the Hispanic voters you drive over to us.

Your assumption apparently being that Hispanic people will favor Hispanic people regardless of the circumstances, and that none will respect the law. That sounds like a racist opinion.

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@Brandon9000,

That's funny Brandon... I see what you did there.

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So Jesus could swing the vote

Muy Bueno

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@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

That's funny Brandon... I see what you did there.

That is not an argument. If you disagree with something I said, defend your position. Mocking didn't suddenly become a valid argument. If you cannot argue your case against someone who is arguing his, then you lose, whether you were right or wrong.

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@Brandon9000,

Correct me if I am wrong, Brandon.

You are basically saying that the majority of Hispanics who support Democratic policies (presumably toward immigration) don't "respect the law". Right?

Did I misunderstand you?

(This makes your comment about mocking being a valid argument rather ironic.)

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@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

Correct me if I am wrong, Brandon.

You are basically saying that the majority of Hispanics who support Democratic policies (presumably toward immigration) don't "respect the law". Right?

Did I misunderstand you?

(This makes your comment about mocking being a valid argument rather ironic.)

I can promise you that I believe everything that I said and that there was no intention to mock, although there was certainly an intention to score my point forcefully.

Your summary of my position is not my position at all. What I am saying is that I often hear the idea expressed that Hispanic voters will not like Republican candidates who advocate enforcement of the immigration laws. That position strike me as containing the implicit assumption that Hispanic voters will always side with Hispanics, rather than, say, siding with enforcement of the law. I am actually saying the opposite of your characterization, because I reject the idea that they will not respect the law and suggest that there are many Hispanic voters who will not be on the side of illegal aliens precisely because they (the Hispanic voters) do respect the law. I think that the assumption that Hispanic voters will punish Republicans for wanting to deport illegals is in itself a racist point of view because it assumes that Hispanics will side with Hispanics. I would give the Hispanic voters the benefit of the doubt and suggest that many will side with deporting people who have entered the country illegally.

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@Brandon9000,

Quote:

What I am saying is that I often hear the idea expressed that Hispanic voters will not like Republican candidates who advocate enforcement of the immigration laws.

Yes, absolutely. The majority of Hispanic voters will not like Republican candidates who advocate "enforcement of the immigration laws" (quotes intended to indicate that this phrase represents your political bias).

This is demonstrably true in polls. This is demonstrably true in election results. This is demonstrably true in what Hispanics talk about around the dinner table. There are exceptions... but the large majority of Hispanics strongly disagree with the position that the Republican party has taken.

Quote:

That position strike me as containing the implicit assumption that Hispanic voters will always side with Hispanics, rather than, say, siding with enforcement of the law.

This is also true, according to your phrasing of the question (which reflects your personal bias).

Hispanic voters will side with Hispanics, rather than siding with "enforcement of the law" not "always" but certainly the great majority of the time. I don't see anything wrong with that. Americans have the right to demand that their political leaders change laws that they see are unfair.

Quote:

I am actually saying the opposite of your characterization, because I reject the idea that they will not respect the law and suggest that there are many Hispanic voters who will not be on the side of illegal aliens precisely because they do respect the law.

You are clearly wrong. In 2000 and 2004 the Republicans were more reasonable on immigration. You were wrong in 2008. You were wrong in 2012. In each of these elections more Hispanic citizens voted and a greater percentage of them voted for Democratic candidates. I don't know how many elections it will take to convince you that you are wrong.

Listen to what the majority of Hispanic voters are saying. They are telling you that you are wrong. They don't respect the immigration law. They don't want it enforced. They wanted it reformed (something the Republican party has blocked for decades).

Quote:

I think that the assumption that Hispanic voters will punish Republicans for want to deport illegals is in itself a racist point of view because it assumes that Hispanics will side with Hispanics.

Calling people who disagree with you racists is an interest topic. Hispanics have punished Republicans for wanting to deport "illegals", and they will continue to punish Republicans until Republicans figure it out.

Hint: I speak fluent Spanish and I spend a fair amount of time with Hispanic voters. If you use the word "illegals" to refer to any Hispanic person (or any human being) you are not going to make very many friends in this community.

The fact is that the great majority of Hispanics strongly disagree with your position on immigration, and they have been punishing the Republican party... more and more each election cycle for holding this position.

Whatever you think about the majority of Hispanic voters who hold this position says more about you than it says about them.

Of course, the more the Republicans hold to this ridiculous position... the better it is for the Democrats. I don't mind that at all.

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@Brandon9000,

Quote Brandon9000:

Quote:

Your assumption apparently being that Hispanic people will favor Hispanic people regardless of the circumstances, and that none will respect the law. That sounds like a racist opinion.

I merely said keep on posting and saying the things you are saying about Hispanics, and we Democrats will be happy to receive the Hispanic votes you are driving our way. If you choose to lie and try to twist that around to claim I'm saying Hispanics don't respect the law, that's your problem.

Because you are trying to make Republicans seem as the hero of the Hispanics, and you are doing such a terrible job that as a Democrat I wouldn't even WANT you to change.

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@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

Quote:
What I am saying is that I often hear the idea expressed that Hispanic voters will not like Republican candidates who advocate enforcement of the immigration laws.

Yes, absolutely. The majority of Hispanic voters will not like Republican candidates who advocate "enforcement of the immigration laws" (quotes intended to indicate that this phrase represents your political bias).

This is demonstrably true in polls. This is demonstrably true in election results. This is demonstrably true in what Hispanics talk about around the dinner table. There are exceptions... but the large majority of Hispanics strongly disagree with the position that the Republican party has taken.

Quote:
That position strike me as containing the implicit assumption that Hispanic voters will always side with Hispanics, rather than, say, siding with enforcement of the law.

This is also true, according to your phrasing of the question (which reflects your personal bias).

Hispanic voters will side with Hispanics, rather than siding with "enforcement of the law" not "always" but certainly the great majority of the time. I don't see anything wrong with that. Americans have the right to demand that their political leaders change laws that they see are unfair.

Quote:
I am actually saying the opposite of your characterization, because I reject the idea that they will not respect the law and suggest that there are many Hispanic voters who will not be on the side of illegal aliens precisely because they do respect the law.

You are clearly wrong. In 2000 and 2004 the Republicans were more reasonable on immigration. You were wrong in 2008. You were wrong in 2012. In each of these elections more Hispanic citizens voted and a greater percentage of them voted for Democratic candidates. I don't know how many elections it will take to convince you that you are wrong.

Listen to what the majority of Hispanic voters are saying. They are telling you that you are wrong. They don't respect the immigration law. They don't want it enforced. They wanted it reformed (something the Republican party has blocked for decades).

Quote:
I think that the assumption that Hispanic voters will punish Republicans for want to deport illegals is in itself a racist point of view because it assumes that Hispanics will side with Hispanics.

Calling people who disagree with you racists is an interest topic. Hispanics have punished Republicans for wanting to deport "illegals", and they will continue to punish Republicans until Republicans figure it out.

Hint: I speak fluent Spanish and I spend a fair amount of time with Hispanic voters. If you use the word "illegals" to refer to any Hispanic person (or any human being) you are not going to make very many friends in this community.

The fact is that the great majority of Hispanics strongly disagree with your position on immigration, and they have been punishing the Republican party... more and more each election cycle for holding this position.

Whatever you think about the majority of Hispanic voters who hold this position says more about you than it says about them.

Of course, the more the Republicans hold to this ridiculous position... the better it is for the Democrats. I don't mind that at all.

Well, I'm certainly not going to spend my time answering such a voluminous post statement by statement, but I will make a few points.

1. You keep saying that my phraseology represents my personal bias but fail to say how. That makes it little more than name calling. I'd like to hear a brief, succinct, tangible explanation of this.
2. If, indeed, as you seem to be claiming, the majority of Hispanic voters want Hispanic people in the country illegally to remain and be given amnesty, or something close to that, I am surprised and disappointed. I would think that Hispanics, like any other group, contain many fair minded people who will not side with someone merely because he is from the same ethnic group.
3. The fact that Hispanic voters have traditionally sided with Democrats cannot be attributed to this single issue without evidence. There could be many other factors at play.
4. The United States, like every other country, has the right to enforce immigration laws and people who have entered or remained in the country illegally can fairly be called "illegals."
5. It is not in the interest of any country X, to have so many people immigrate from a single country or region Y as to form pockets of a foreign country within the country X whose inhabitants do not have any need to be assimilated.
6. Contrary to your claim, I did not call any person who disagreed with me a racist. I called the contents of a post or a theory racist. Do you have to misstate what I say to debate me?

1 Reply

How important are Hispanic voters in the 2016 Elections?

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