http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=574&e=1&u=/nm/20050215/wl_nm/iraq_dc_355
Shi'ite Jaafari Is Front-Runner to Become Iraqi PM
Tue Feb 15, 9:14 AM ET
By Mariam Karouny
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Shi'ite politician and former exile Ibrahim al-Jaafari emerged as the front-runner Tuesday to become Iraq (news - web sites)'s new prime minister as horse-trading to decide the line-up of the next government entered the final stages.
Jaafari, a physician and father of five, is head of the Dawa Party, one of two leading religious parties in the United Iraqi Alliance, an Islamist Shi'ite-led group which won 48 percent of the vote in elections on Jan. 30.
"The competition is still fierce but it appears so far that Jaafari will be the United Iraqi Alliance candidate because Dawa is insisting on him," a senior Shi'ite source told Reuters.
The diplomatic and softly-spoken 58-year-old, who holds the largely ceremonial role of vice president in the current interim government, fled Iraq in 1980 after thousands of Dawa members were murdered by Saddam Hussein (news - web sites). His family remains in London.
While the alliance did not win the 60 percent it hoped for, the vote puts the coalition in a commanding position to take the top job in the next government. A two-thirds majority is needed in the newly elected National Assembly to form a government.
The alliance, formed with the backing of top Shi'ite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is headed by Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), both of which opposed Saddam Hussein from exile in Iran.
The source said SCIRI, led by Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim, had agreed to support Jaafari and withdraw its candidate, Finance Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, "to preserve the unity of the alliance," which some had feared could collapse after the vote.
He said a final deal was unlikely Tuesday, with many more details on who gets which jobs still to be worked out.
Analysts expect the Kurds, who took 25 percent of the vote, to play a key role in the talks as Iraqis look toward a reduction and eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops.
KURD POWER
The Kurds' powerful showing puts them in a kingmaker role -- if they combine forces with the Shi'ite alliance, the pair would have more than two-thirds in the assembly and would be able to decide between them who takes what job, including ministries.
The Kurds want Jalal Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, to be Iraq's president and are likely to support the Shi'ite choice for prime minister if they get their way.
While the Shi'ite bloc won slightly less than half the vote, it could end up with about 140 seats in the assembly -- two more than a majority -- once those votes that went to candidates who did not get enough to secure a seat are redistributed.
That could happen by the end of the week, provided the final tally is certified Wednesday as scheduled.
The Kurds' second place showing means they will get around 70 seats in the 275-member assembly. A list headed by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi came third and will have about 40 seats.
It now looks unlikely that Allawi, Iraq's leading secular Shi'ite, will have a senior role in the next government.
Sunni Arabs, most of whom either boycotted the vote or did not turn out because of violence, are set to get barely five seats in the assembly, leaving Iraq's once dominant minority out in the cold and raising fresh fears of sectarian attacks.
POST-VOTE TENSIONS
There are also fears of a rise in ethnic tensions around the divided northern city of Kirkuk, where Kurds won about 60 percent of the local vote after many Arabs and Turkmen, who also lay claim to the oil-rich city, boycotted the election.
Violence continued to boil. The U.S. army said a soldier died and three were hurt Monday in a roadside bombing near Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad.
A provincial government official escaped an assassination attempt in the same area, the Iraqi National Guard said. They also reported that a secondary gas pipeline north of Kirkuk was burning after an insurgent attack. A school in Baghdad was hit by a mortar round, but there were no casualties.
Security forces are on alert ahead of Ashura, one of the holiest events in the Shi'ite calendar and which pays homage to Imam Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Mohammed, who died in battle in 680 A.D. The event reaches a climax Saturday.
Iraq will close its borders between Feb. 17 and Feb. 22 to stop foreign pilgrims from flooding the celebrations, hit last year by suicide bombers who killed 171 in Kerbala and Baghdad.
In Basra, southern Iraq, kidnappers released a wealthy Turkish businessman held for almost two months. His wife said they were criminals, with no religious or political motive, and had been paid a ransom of less than $1 million. There was no word on the fate of French reporter Florence Aubenas, missing since Jan. 13, or Italian journalist Giuliana Sgrena who was seized on Feb. 4. Over 120 foreigners have been kidnapped in Iraq, a third of whom have been murdered.
(Additional reporting by Waleed Ibrahim and Omar Anwar in Baghdad)