9
   

Is the world being destroyed?

 
 
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Sep, 2021 10:07 am
@maxdancona,
Quote:
Describe the specific steps we need to take to solve the problem.

For decades we've been told what we need to do – stop greenhouse gases from accumulating in the atmosphere. Instead we build more coal-fired power plants and cut down more forests.

Quote:
Describe the costs of the solution; what will you sacrifice, what you will ask other people to sacrifice.

People aren't about to sacrifice anything and no politician who expects to keep his job would ask such a thing.

Quote:
In addition, you also need to describe a political process (...) There needs to be a process of compromise and a way to get acceptance across societies.

Good luck with that. We don't even have compromise and acceptance within societies, let alone across them.

Quote:
What we have here is panic; an exaggerated fear with no solutions offered and no way to reach them.

Yes, that is the problem, isn't it.

I don't see any panic, however, and the only fear seems to be the fear of losing beachfront property, having to buy fire insurance, or maybe curtailing one's vacation plans.
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Thu 9 Sep, 2021 10:18 am
@hightor,
So if Coal use declines by say 20%, you would be happy?

And what if the efforts to stop deforestation was decreasing the rate of deforestation?
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Thu 9 Sep, 2021 10:25 am
@hightor,
The facts are...

- Coal use has declined by 20% in the US, and is declining in Europe.
- Forest cover is increasing in the US (we are adding forests) and Europe and Russia.

The complicated issue is with developing nations. Coal is the way for developing nations (particularly in Asia) to develop... it literally saves lives.

This is one of the complicated tradeoffs that your state of panic ignores. Telling poor people in Asia to stay in poverty isn't really fair... and growing an economy (something that you seem to dislike) isn't just about pumping money into a country. Countries need to grow expertise and industry, a process that for the US and Europe required cheap energy.

I am in favor of taking reasonable and thoughtful steps to address climate change. Panic is not part of this.
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Thu 9 Sep, 2021 10:26 am
@hightor,
If you reject sacrifice, and you reject compromise...

What exactly are you proposing?
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Thu 9 Sep, 2021 10:42 am
@maxdancona,
Quote:
- Forest cover is increasing in the US (we are adding forests) and Europe and Russia.

Sure. As forests in the western USA, Australia, the Amazon, Indonesia, and scrubland in Siberia are subject to annual conflagrations and intentional burning.

Quote:
Panic is not part of this.

What did I tell you about trying to characterize what other people think?
I never mentioned "panic" – you're the one who brought it up. I don't prescribe panic as a solution, nor am I in a state of panic myself.

Quote:
What exactly are you proposing?

I'm not "proposing" anything. I'm suggesting that from what I know of humans, good luck on reaching any international consensus or effective compromise.
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Thu 9 Sep, 2021 10:54 am
@hightor,
Quote:
I'm not "proposing" anything. I'm suggesting that from what I know of humans, good luck on reaching any international consensus or effective compromise.


Exactly. And that is why I am here.
hightor
 
  3  
Reply Thu 9 Sep, 2021 11:13 am
@maxdancona,
Oh, I didn't know that you were an effective negotiator on the international stage. Do you want to point to some of your personal successes at achieving compromise in a global context ? Or maybe you're too modest – yeah, right.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Thu 9 Sep, 2021 11:43 am
I believe science.
I support compromise.
I celebrate progress.

I don't apologize for any of that.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Thu 9 Sep, 2021 12:01 pm
This is the worse type of ideological extremism; it attacks everything and stands for nothing. There are no solutions, no progress, no sacrifice, no trade-offs. This is just page after page of hatred for humanity.

I would love to have a thoughtful conversation on what a reasoned response to climate change would look like.

I think the greatest challenge is balancing the urgent need to cut carbon emissions with the real needs of the developing world. On a smaller scale is the needs within economies, raising the price of gas and oil would reduce emissions, but would have a disproportionate effect on working class people and hurt jobs.
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Thu 9 Sep, 2021 02:31 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote:
This is the worse type of ideological extremism; it attacks everything and stands for nothing.

What else did you like about it? You stuck around for 40 pages.
Quote:
There are no solutions, no progress, no sacrifice, no trade-offs.

It's not supposed to be a policy paper.
Quote:
This is just page after page of hatred for humanity.

Can you show me one article which backs up this assertion? World weariness and skepticism as to humanity's likelihood of reversing the catastrophic juggernaut that the burning of fossil fuels put into motion is hardly an expression of "hatred". Pointing out the perpetual problem of the unintended consequences of industrial progress is hardly an expression of "hatred". Suggesting that the current climate of tribalism and national sovereignty might derail efforts to forge an effective international consensus is hardly an expression of "hatred".
Quote:
I would love to have a thoughtful conversation on what a reasoned response to climate change would look like.

You should have started a thread on the subject, as I suggested several times.
Quote:
I think the greatest challenge is balancing the urgent need to cut carbon emissions with the real needs of the developing world.

Yes, that will be a challenge. And with it will come a host of other challenges.
Quote:
On a smaller scale is the needs within economies, raising the price of gas and oil would reduce emissions, but would have a disproportionate effect on working class people and hurt jobs.

Yes, we're in quite a pickle, aren't we.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  3  
Reply Fri 10 Sep, 2021 05:47 am
Accelerated forest fragmentation leads to critical increase in tropical forest edge area

Quote:
Abstract:

Large areas of tropical forests have been lost through deforestation, resulting in fragmented forest landscapes. However, the dynamics of forest fragmentation are still unknown, especially the critical forest edge areas, which are sources of carbon emissions due to increased tree mortality. We analyzed the changes in forest fragmentation for the entire tropics using high-resolution forest cover maps. We found that forest edge area increased from 27 to 31% of the total forest area in just 10 years, with the largest increase in Africa. The number of forest fragments increased by 20 million with consequences for connectivity of tropical landscapes. Simulations suggest that ongoing deforestation will further accelerate forest fragmentation. By 2100, 50% of tropical forest area will be at the forest edge, causing additional carbon emissions of up to 500 million MT carbon per year. Thus, efforts to limit fragmentation in the world’s tropical forests are important for climate change mitigation.

science
maxdancona
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 10 Sep, 2021 08:16 am
@hightor,
Much better article, Hightor. Notice what they do right.

1) They are measuring something that is scientifically well defined. They can measure fragmentation in an objective way. They are making a claim about tons of carbon .

2) They state their point without exaggeration. There is no breathless apocalyptic hype.

3) They suggest as productive response. They are pointing out that fragmentation is an important metric (as well as simply area). This is something that policy makers can use to make a positive difference.

This is a good one, Hightor.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  -3  
Reply Fri 10 Sep, 2021 08:38 am
There is good news on deforestation. Efforts to slow deforestation are working. The people who say "we need to do much more" are completely correct... but you can't deny that we are moving in the right direction.

The solution here is fairly straightforward. There are developed countries (i.e. the US and European countries) who have already used natural resources to become prosperous. There are developing countries (i.e. Brazil and Indeonesia) who have natural resources and want to become prosperous.

The Developed World simply needs to pay the Developing world for keeping their forests intact. This process is already happening. This allows the developing world to have the things their people want, while keeping the forests intact.

If you want to do something productive, support these payments from the US government (and increasingly from international corporations) to preserve the tropical forests.
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Fri 10 Sep, 2021 11:53 am
@maxdancona,
Quote:
They are pointing out that fragmentation is an important metric (as well as simply area).

Pointing this out is certainly useful but if fragmentation still continues it won't be any different than the warnings about greenhouse gases that have been ignored for decades.

Quote:
If you want to do something productive, support these payments from the US government (and increasingly from international corporations) to preserve the tropical forests.

Support how? Voting for Democrats? Sending ten bucks to a conservation organization? I "support" lots of things but my support (as an individual) is insignificant, a point well understood by policy makers.
maxdancona
 
  -2  
Reply Fri 10 Sep, 2021 12:02 pm
@hightor,
Quote:
Pointing this out is certainly useful but if fragmentation still continues it won't be any different than the warnings about greenhouse gases that have been ignored for decades.


Which decades are you talking about? We have certainly not been ignoring the warning about greenhouse gasses, at least not in the past few decades.

Saying we are not making progress fast enough is one thing. I probably agree with you (although you still haven't specified what "fast enough" would look like).

Saying that we are not making progress, or that this hasn't been on the forefront of the international stage for decades is simply untrue.
hightor
 
  0  
Reply Fri 10 Sep, 2021 02:30 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote:
Saying that we are not making progress, or that this hasn't been on the forefront of the international stage for decades is simply untrue.

We're not "making progress". Talking about the problem and agreeing that, "yup, it sure is terrible" isn't making progress. We've failed to halt the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases, let alone begin to reverse the process. Even the most optimistic scenarios don't show us halting global warming for another thirty or so years.
maxdancona
 
  -3  
Reply Fri 10 Sep, 2021 03:38 pm
@hightor,
That is nonsense Hightor, I don't deny the bad news or the need for more progress. But your refusal to accept the progress that is taking place is part of the problem. It is climate extremism; climate-progress denial.

Do you accept carbon emissions in the US are declining steadily (I searched for articles before the current pandemic)

Quote:
In Carbon Brief’s analysis, overall CO2 emissions are around 18% lower than they would have been, if underlying factors had not changed, and 14% lower than their 2005 peak. No single factor is responsible for more than a third of total declines in US CO2.

Increases in gas electricity generation is the largest driver, accounting for 33% of the total emissions reduction in 2016. Gas is far from zero-carbon, but reduces CO2 in the US because it mostly displaces high-carbon coal.

Wind generation was responsible for 19% of emissions reduction, while reduced electricity use – mostly in the industrial sector – was responsible for 18%. Reduced industrial CO2 emissions from non-electric sources, such as on-site burning of oil or natural gas, accounted for an additional 7%

Other important factors include reduced miles driven, increased vehicle fuel economy and lower emissions from air travel via reductions in CO2 per passenger mile. Solar power accounts for a small, but growing part of emissions reductions, representing 3% of the reduction in 2016.


https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-us-carbon-emissions-have-fallen-14-since-2005

There are two extremes here. Yes, the people who deny climate change are extremists. But so is the other side, that denies that any climate change progress is happening.
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Sep, 2021 03:14 am
@maxdancona,
You're only talking about CO2, not other greenhouse gases which are even more effective at trapping heat in the upper atmosphere. And you're just using the USA as a convenient example. It's actually a global problem.

'They just kept on rising': data reveals alarming greenhouse gas increase

Quote:
"The main thing we found is that almost everywhere we looked, and in almost every sector, greenhouse gas emissions just kept on rising, right up to the beginning of COVID-19, when we had the highest greenhouse gas emissions we've ever had," Prof. Wiedmann says.

"This is despite the fact there are more than 20 countries that have reduced their emissions. It's when you take this bird's eye view of the total emissions that you see that those reductions barely make a difference."

Prof. Wiedmann says he knew that emissions were still growing, but he was surprised that moves towards renewable energy have not made larger dents in the emissions.

"The results are quite sobering, we just haven't been able to bend the curve. Yes, we have slowed the growth of emissions a bit when compared to the decade leading up to 2010, but if we want to meet the Paris Agreement target by 2050, then we have to get emissions down really quickly."
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Sat 11 Sep, 2021 03:56 am


Climate change indicators are tracking the worst-case scenario.
maxdancona
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 11 Sep, 2021 11:00 am
@hightor,
This is more politically extremist nonsense.
0 Replies
 
 

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