@Blickers,
Blickers wrote:
Absolutely right. If this nonsense about Johnson and Stein taking from Trump were true, than as Johnson and Stein decline, Trump would be going UP. Instead, Trump is going DOWN as Johnson andStein lose support, and it is Hillary who is going UP. Proof that Johnson and Stein are taking from Hillary, not Trump.
I'm not convinced of your argument.
It is possible that Republican voters were turned off by Trump, but did not want to vote Hillary, and so picked a third party. As the election grows closer they could be re-thinking their decision to vote third party and selecting Clinton as the better of the two major-party candidates.
The same scenario could hold true for Democrats; didn't want to vote for either Clinton or Trump, but now deciding to vote major party.
Without data on the voter's previous voting history, you can't tell which scenario is true, or if it's a mixture of both. (Personally, I'd argue it's likely to be a mixture of both.)
All this data tells you is that a) voters are drifting away from the third party candidates and b) most of those voters are choosing Clinton.