Bernie's In

Clinton ‘Perplexed’ by Sanders’s Superdelegate Logic

@revelette2,

I saw that interview. Again, I think that Bernie is probably doing Hillary a favor by saying he's going for the superdelegate count regardless of how the pledged delegates vote, because he does not want to say outright, "Sure I'm done unless you get indicted". To do that would just add more fuel to the Republicans' screaming, "Fix!!" if Hillary doesn't get indicted. The GOP will say, "See? Even Sanders stayed in after he was done because even Bernie figured an indictment was coming down and the superdelegates wouldn't vote for Hillary then".

Sanders knows he's beat, but if Hillary gets indicted all bets are off. The superdelegates might well vote for Sanders then.

1 Reply

@Blickers,

Newsflash: Hillary is not going to be arrested.
We now return you to your regular programming.

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@snood,

I don't think she will be either, but Sanders is not inclined to concede if an indictment does come down before the convention. And he doesn't want to say so out loud because he figures the indictment probably won't happen but him saying, "I'm staying in to see if Hillary gets indicted" will be trumpeted by Republicans as proof that even Sanders figured that Hillary was going down. So Sanders just shifts gears and talks about persuading superdelegates to vote for him, without specifying what it would take for those superdelegates to change their mind about voting for Hillary.

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@Blickers,

Quote:

Sanders is not inclined to concede if an indictment does come down before the convention.

(bold mine)

He's not "inclined" to concede for any reason- including common sense, honor or party unity -so that really goes without saying. He'd fall over himself with glee if Hillary got indicted. So I don't want to give any of the doom and gloom scenarios any play.

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I've seen Bernie's people (campaign manager and others) asked a simple question: Have any superdelegates thus far flipped, or given you any indication that they will flip? Without fail, they start out trying not to answer with the plain truth (which is no, no superdelegate has done so) until they are pressed a second or third time. Then they give a sheepish, faint "no", and quickly try to follow up with some more chop logic and voodoo math.

I hope after tonight their story changes.

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@snood,

Okay, put yourself in Bernie's place. You started out unknown against the candidate that the party leaders and everyone else said had it wrapped up. You do much, much better than anyone imagined. The Republicans push this Email business and the FBI gets involved. After looking it over, the FBI decides some rules of Emailing government documents were broken. The FBI says a few weeks ago that they are investigating and will tell you if they plan to seek an indictment in a few months. That would put that decision somewhere near the end of July or so.

If you're a candidate who gave it a good run, but looks like you're going to lose, are you going to throw in the towel and concede as long as there is any chance, however slight, that the FBI might decide to seek an indictment against your opponent before the convention? I wouldn't.

I personally don't think Hillary is going to face an indictment since the report said that the last five Secretaries of State also broke the rules. Don't forget, when Hillary was in high school computers were bigger than refrigerators and had vacuum tubes like the old TVs. Not vacuum tubes in the monitor, (there was no monitor anyway)-vacuum tubes in the electronic computing circuitry. Ditto for most of the people in her age group.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2740/4176601266_15a990a3c5_o.jpg

So coming down on them on Email and stuff is just a waste of time. But if I were Sanders, after all that work I put in, I would wait it out.

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I like this guy's comment on 538:

Quote:

Brian Martin: Sanders supporters have gone through the denial, anger, and bargaining stages of loss. Next comes depression and then acceptance.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/june-7-new-jersey-california-primary-presidential-election-2016/?ex_cid=promo_banner

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The Bernie Bros are out in full force harassing female reporters

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A lady with ideas.

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As of this morning all the delegates from yesterday's contests have not been allocated. In spite of that, Hillary did better than I expected. She is currently leading Bernie by 380 delegates. I had predicted 300. With DC left, where she should do quite well, she could have 400 more regular delegates by the end.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Hillary won 4 of the 6 contests yesterday. With the 2 previous wins, it means she has won 6 of the last 8 contests. It seems momentum is on her side at this point both in states won and in number of votes.

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@revelette2,

"Bernie bros" are a Hillary/establishment construct.

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Do ya'll think Blickers is right, Sanders is still vowing to stay in the race despite Hillary's wins last night. Could he possibly be thinking Hillary is going to be indicted and so the super delegates might change their votes to him?

Bernie Sanders pledges to stay in race

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@revelette2,

No. Sanders does not think Clinton will be indicted and even if he suspended his campaign and something happened, he could just un-suspend it. I believe Sanders really thinks he is the best candidate and the voters have it wrong, so he is going to continue. I don't think there is anything more complicated than that.

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@engineer,

engineer wrote:

No. Sanders does not think Clinton will be indicted and even if he suspended his campaign and something happened, he could just un-suspend it. I believe Sanders really thinks he is the best candidate and the voters have it wrong, so he is going to continue. I don't think there is anything more complicated than that.

I think that's most of it. I think whatever other motives he has could be explained in simple human terms like not wanting to disappoint his followers and not wanting to leave the limelight.

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@engineer,

Quote engineer:

Quote:

Sanders does not think Clinton will be indicted and even if he suspended his campaign and something happened, he could just un-suspend it

"Suspending" a campaign is really leaving a campaign and telling everyone to go home. Essentially you are out of it, though you do retain whatever delegates you already had. As far as the possible indictment, I don't think Sanders thinks it's likely but the FBI said they would announce whether or not they plan to seek an indictment, so nobody can say an indictment is out of the question. If there was even a 1% chance of an indictment I would stay in it so that if the indictment actually materializes, nobody can say, "Well, you conceded and now we start from a fresh slate" and you'd have to fight your way back into consideration if the party decided a change of nominee is necessary.

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Very interesting insights into Sanders campaign.

Quote:

There’s no strategist pulling the strings, and no collection of burn-it-all-down aides egging him on. At the heart of the rage against Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party, the campaign aides closest to him say, is Bernie Sanders.

It was the Vermont senator who personally rewrote his campaign manager’s shorter statement after the chaos at the Nevada state party convention and blamed the political establishment for inciting the violence.

He was the one who made the choice to go after Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz after his wife read him a transcript of her blasting him on television.

He chose the knife fight over calling Clinton unqualified, which aides blame for pulling the bottom out of any hopes they had of winning in New York and their last real chance of turning a losing primary run around.

And when Jimmy Kimmel’s producers asked Sanders’ campaign for a question to ask Donald Trump, Sanders himself wrote the one challenging the Republican nominee to a debate.

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@Blickers,

I can kind of see that thinking in it, I can also see the lure of adoring fans egging him on past the point of it being practical and I can see the point of him wanting to get the real things he does want on the platform. I think maybe, it is all true.

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@revelette2,

I can be made to drink wine. Where exactly does your dad live?

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@RABEL222,

That would be telling, I am too paranoid to give out that kind of information, don't think he would appreciate it in the least.

I tried drinking it for my health, just couldn't hack it. I confess, the only way I will drink alcohol is like my coffee, sugared up to shakes. I guess our French has been diluted, you think?

1 Reply

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