maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 08:46 am
@parados,
He really under-performed in Oregon from what I'd been hearing. If he can't win OR by 68%, he's got little hope most anywhere else.

Maybe young people can't be bothered to use the US Mail system?
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 08:49 am
@parados,
parados wrote:

After yesterday's Democratic primaries in Oregon and Kentucky, Bernie now needs 89% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. This clearly isn't going to happen.

He would need 68% of the remaining regular delegates to have a majority of the regular delegates. Oregon was a state where I expected him to break the 60% barrier but he only got 55%. There is no path for him to win at this point.


I'm pretty sure he's too high on himself to admit that now. Even when he concedes I expect there to be a definite lack of finality, a hinting about being cheated, and nodding toward his most rabid followers to carry on their empty, destructive "fight".
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 08:55 am
@parados,
I thought Mr. Sanders would blast Oregon. My guesstimate on that was really off. I'd expected 70 - 75% for him (just going off social media observations).
snood
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 09:00 am
So, let's start an informal pool. When does everyone say that Bernie will make a concession speech. Before June 7th? Right after the returns for the Cali primary are final? Later in June? Later than June?

I say several days AFTER the Cali returns. Early-mid June.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 09:05 am
@snood,
maybe a new thread for that?



(and maybe some of us can drop links on FB -see if we can get some new blood in )
snood
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 09:11 am
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

maybe a new thread for that?



(and maybe some of us can drop links on FB -see if we can get some new blood in )

Sure. I'll start it soon as I get a long break.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 09:20 am
@ehBeth,
Don't forget all the HUGE rally's that he held!!!

Thousands and thousands in Salem as an example.
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/politics/2016/05/10/sanders-rally-draws-thousands-salem/84195424/


I mean what happened??? Clinton never once showed up and campaigned in OR. She lost that state to Obama in 2008.

It should have been a Sanders landslide....but?
ehBeth
 
  3  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 09:28 am
@maporsche,
There's been some interesting analysis on the split between rally numbers and votes. Here is a shortish one.

Quote:
“There was the phrase that Bernie supporters go to rallies and Clinton supporters just go vote,” said Rebecca Katz, a Brooklyn-based Democratic strategist and former adviser to New York Mayor Bill de Blasio. “While I believe that Bernie’s team was out there energizing people, Hillary’s campaign had surrogates meeting voters in nearly every corner of the state.”


https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/04/21/why-big-crowds-don-equal-big-votes-for-bernie-sanders/uuKcKaVV10wJV5m88iiiDP/story.html


__

I've posted this link before

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/26/475681237/campaign-mystery-why-dont-bernie-sanders-big-rallies-lead-to-big-wins

Quote:
It may be Clinton supporters are just less vocal, less likely to spend hours on social media praising their candidate or to show up at a concert-style rally (Clinton's campaign has also shied away from planning large events).

Crowd Size Simply Isn't A Predictor Of Winning

If big crowds meant big wins at the polls, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and former Texas Rep. Ron Paul would both be president. But election after election, crowd size has been an unreliable predictor of winning.

"The people at the rally are not a random or representative sample of the electorate," says Lynn Vavreck, a professor of political science and communication studies at University of California, Los Angeles. "These are strategic and well-planned events. This isn't just happening."

Rallies are designed to look like spontaneous displays of excitement for a candidate, but they are planned right down to picking a venue that will overflow rather than look half-empty.
reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 05:38 pm
@ehBeth,
Quote:
There's been some interesting analysis on the split between rally numbers and votes. Here is a shortish one.


What is your view point about this?


The claim that Hillary is winning the popular vote is one of the most deceptive, specious claims the Hillary Clinton campaign and her surrogates are making. The mainstream media is echoing and giving a total pass on this egregiously dishonest claim.

This is very important for several reasons.

1- Superdelegates are arguing that they are, by supporting Hillary, representing the majority of voters. The truth is that this not true.

2- The mainstream media repeat the “Hillary is winning the popular vote” mantra, or allow Hillary and her surrogates to make the specious claim many many times every day.

Actually, the claim is an affront to the truth, based on the numbers.


The truth is that caucus states don’t have a popular vote. That doesn’t make their vote less important. It just changes how the people of that state choose to make the decision on who to select in the primary.

Most people making claims about Hillary’s popular vote advantage talk about her having around a three million vote lead. I went to the 2016 Democratic Popular Vote page on RealClearPolitics. The page, not including West Virginia, shows Hillary with a 3,135,834 lead.

Then I took a list of the caucus states that Bernie has won, and he’s won almost all of them.

I dug up 2015 census data on the populations of those states and then pulled from Real Clear Politics, the total votes and the winning spread for Sanders in the caucus states. The numbers are below. First observation— for states totaling roughly 35 million people, some which Bernie won by 70%, he is given a total spread advantage of 160,000 votes. That’s outrageous.

Caucus states:

2015 populations according to wikipedia





Take a close look at Washington state, which Bernie won with 72.7% of the votes. RealClearPolitics gives him zero votes, with its 7.2 million population.

The same goes for Maine, where Bernie had a 29% spread and Alaska where he won over 81% of the vote. Zero. Zilch. Nada. In Wyoming, Bernie is given 32 votes, not 32,000. He is given 32 votes.

It’s ridiculous. But it’s not ridiculous that Clinton claims she has a three million popular vote lead. It’s an intentional, obscenely misleading, dishonest claim.

When a super delegate claims he or she is representing the will of the majority, basing it on the three million lead popular vote, it’s based on a lie. Challenge that superdelegate.

When a journalist on a news network allows Hillary Clinton, her campaign manager or any of her many surrogates, employed by the networks or independent, to matter-of-factly state that Hillary has a popular vote lead, without challenging that claim, they are engaging in unethical, journalistic malpractice, or, framed another way, they are promoting the Hillary Clinton campaign.

If you observe the MSM engaging in this practice, call them on it. Tweet or share on Facebook the name of the “journalist” who gave the “pass.” Include the network’s twitter address and the journalist’s twitter @address. Make a stink about this.

This is a lie that should not be accepted, tolerated or allowed to persist.

This is a follow-up to my article, published April 1, 2016, Hillary’s Disingenuous Claim That She’s Won 2.5 Million More Votes is Bogus. Here’s why

Follow Rob Kall on Twitter: www.twitter.com/robkall

RABEL222
 
  3  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 06:01 pm
@reasoning logic,
The popular vote is 13,170,000 for Hillary 10,130,000 for Bernie. Thats 55.5% for Hillary to 42.7% for Bernie. Hillary has a 300 delegate lead over Bernie. All the bull excuses isent going to erase these facts. 27 states for Hillary to 21 for Bernie. He got where he is by controlling the caucuses with kids and keeping almost everyone over the age of 40 at home. After Nevada I understand better how he did it. Baseball bats and chairs are very effective in persuading people to change their mind.
reasoning logic
 
  2  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 06:22 pm
@RABEL222,
Quote:
The popular vote is 13,170,000 for Hillary 10,130,000 for Bernie.



The truth is that caucus states don’t have a popular vote.

Do you think this is true?
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  3  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 06:59 pm
Is there any way of calculating the vote totals that Bernie folks would accept - as long as Hillary is found to be the victor?
reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 07:04 pm
@snood,
Quote:
Is there any way of calculating the vote totals that Bernie folks would accept - as long as Hillary is found to be the victor?


Is it possible for her to be the victor and be honest about it?
snood
 
  3  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 07:05 pm
@reasoning logic,
reasoning logic wrote:

Quote:
Is there any way of calculating the vote totals that Bernie folks would accept - as long as Hillary is found to be the victor?


Is it possible for her to be the victor and be honest about it?


How could you ever acknowledge honesty on Hillary's part. You're hardwired not to see anything good there.
reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 07:23 pm
@snood,
Quote:

How could you ever acknowledge honesty on Hillary's part. You're hardwired not to see anything good there.


Just because I am a student who has more than 10 thousand hours studying cluster b personality disorders does not mean that I'm hardwired to understand what I understand.

I realize that my understandings are approximations of reality but isn't that better than being the alternative? ocpd?
http://www.ocdonline.com/#!the-right-stuff/c1hdb

reasoning logic
 
  0  
Reply Wed 18 May, 2016 07:40 pm
Have you ever seen a Bernie Sanders supporter as mean as this one?

0 Replies
 
snood
 
  2  
Reply Thu 19 May, 2016 12:17 am
I'm posting this article in its entirety - I think it makes a very important statement about Bernie's character.

Bernie and Jane Sanders: The Democratic Party’s Thelma and Louise

As the Berniacs go nuts, Bernie himself is egging them on.
Now we are forced to ask whether Bernie Sanders has decided he wants to destroy the Democratic Party. I’m sure he would say he wants to save it. The way we saved villages in Vietnam. You know the quote.

I don’t allege that he decided to run as a Democrat for this reason. He did so, I’m told by those who’d know, because he did not want to be the 21st-century Ralph Nader and because he knew that running against Hillary Clinton
would give him a much bigger stage on which to inveigh against the parasites.

That was then. But now, after the Nevada fracas and his gobsmacking statement in the wake of it, it’s remorselessly clear that he wants to obliterate the Democratic Party. Revolutions take on lives of their own. Robespierre never thought back in 1790 or ’91 that the guillotine would be needed. But as the dialecticians like to say, historical circumstances change. By 1793, those little sheep who’d been misled by sellouts like Danton were part of the…corrupt establishment.

In such a circumstance, a normal politician would say something like: I still think the process in Nevada last weekend was unfair to my delegates. However, there is no place in my movement for this kind of invective, these kinds of threats. I renounce and denounce them completely. And I tell my supporters now, refrain from that. Hillary Clinton is my opponent in this primary; she is not our enemy.

Easy peazy. But here instead is what he said. Oh—after, after he ducked a question about it from a reporter, walking away in mid-question. Now that’s courage! Presidential! So then he put out a statement. Which began:

It is imperative that the Democratic leadership, both nationally and in the states, understand that the political world is changing and that millions of Americans are outraged at establishment politics and establishment economics. The people of this country want a government which represents all of us, not just the 1 percent, super PACs and wealthy campaign contributors.
The Democratic Party has a choice. It can open its doors and welcome into the party people who are prepared to fight for real economic and social change – people who are willing to take on Wall Street, corporate greed and a fossil fuel industry which is destroying this planet. Or the party can choose to maintain its status quo structure, remain dependent on big-money campaign contributions and be a party with limited participation and limited energy.

What? Excuse me? Your supporters just threatened to kill a woman, called her a c---t, and this is how you open your official statement on that event? He did throw in a sentence about not condoning violence, but it was buried so that the effect of it was to communicate: yeah, yeah, I have to say this. Bitch.

Most things that happen in campaigns tell us something about people as politicians. This statement told us something about Sanders—and, I suspect, about his wife, Jane, and Jeff Weaver, his campaign manager—as human beings. Everything is subordinated to ideology. Basic human impulses are buried. There is only politics, only ideology, only the movement. I’m really glad we’re not in Romania in 1965. I know where I’d be.

I know this because I’ve known lots of people like this. Leftists like Sanders regard the Democratic Party as a far bigger problem in the world than the Republican Party. The thinking goes like this: The Republicans, sure, everybody knows they’re evil. That’s obvious. But the Democrats, they’re evil too. They adopt a few attractive positions, say nice things on certain issues as long as saying those nice things doesn’t really threaten the established economic order, so they’re even worse, finally, because they fool people into thinking they’re on their side. I heard this a hundred times from the old guys who used to hector me at the Socialist Scholars Conference in Manhattan 25 years ago when I used to speak there.


Consider the statement. Have you read it? You must. Remember the context: It had just been revealed, only hours before, that his supporters had hurled abominable epithet at Nevada Democratic Chairwoman Roberta Lange, threatening death and calling her a “c--t.” That word, especially thrown at a woman, crosses an obvious line.

In such a circumstance, a normal politician would say something like: I still think the process in Nevada last weekend was unfair to my delegates. However, there is no place in my movement for this kind of invective, these kinds of threats. I renounce and denounce them completely. And I tell my supporters now, refrain from that. Hillary Clinton is my opponent in this primary; she is not our enemy.

Easy peazy. But here instead is what he said. Oh—after, after he ducked a question about it from a reporter, walking away in mid-question. Now that’s courage! Presidential! So then he put out a statement. Which began:

It is imperative that the Democratic leadership, both nationally and in the states, understand that the political world is changing and that millions of Americans are outraged at establishment politics and establishment economics. The people of this country want a government which represents all of us, not just the 1 percent, super PACs and wealthy campaign contributors.

The Democratic Party has a choice. It can open its doors and welcome into the party people who are prepared to fight for real economic and social change – people who are willing to take on Wall Street, corporate greed and a fossil fuel industry which is destroying this planet. Or the party can choose to maintain its status quo structure, remain dependent on big-money campaign contributions and be a party with limited participation and limited energy.

What? Excuse me? Your supporters just threatened to kill a woman, called her a c---t, and this is how you open your official statement on that event? He did throw in a sentence about not condoning violence, but it was buried so that the effect of it was to communicate: yeah, yeah, I have to say this. Bitch.

Most things that happen in campaigns tell us something about people as politicians. This statement told us something about Sanders—and, I suspect, about his wife, Jane, and Jeff Weaver, his campaign manager—as human beings. Everything is subordinated to ideology. Basic human impulses are buried. There is only politics, only ideology, only the movement. I’m really glad we’re not in Romania in 1965. I know where I’d be.

I know this because I’ve known lots of people like this. Leftists like Sanders regard the Democratic Party as a far bigger problem in the world than the Republican Party. The thinking goes like this: The Republicans, sure, everybody knows they’re evil. That’s obvious. But the Democrats, they’re evil too. They adopt a few attractive positions, say nice things on certain issues as long as saying those nice things doesn’t really threaten the established economic order, so they’re even worse, finally, because they fool people into thinking they’re on their side. I heard this a hundred times from the old guys who used to hector me at the Socialist Scholars Conference in Manhattan 25 years ago when I used to speak there.

That’s what Bernie is. If he’d stayed in Brooklyn, he’d have been a Social Scholars Conference hectorer. He had the wisdom to move to a podunk state, and the luck to do so just as it was becoming the place where all the aging hippies were moving, and so he became a mayor and then a House member and, finally and exaltedly, a senator.

All that said I give him some credit. He’s much better on the big stage than I thought he’d be. And I certainly don’t have contempt for all his supporters. I am friends with some of his supporters. I love some of his supporters—not that way, but dear friends, extended family, like that. And I think most of his supporters are rational people who’ll accept the reality that he just didn’t get as many votes as the other person and in November will vote for the other person.

But they’re not what’s at issue here. What’s at issue here is the people who won’t accept reality, and in particular the Pied Piper who’s blowing on the flute and waltzing them off the pier. He is becoming a sputtering joke, a man who lost 58-42 and thought—really, truly thought, deep down in his kishkes—that it was stolen from him. And his aides, according to a New York Times piece posted Wednesday night, are ready to "harm" Clinton over the course of the next month, because Sanders also believes these farkakte general-election polls taken before anyone has spent a single dollar attacking him.

It could still be different for him. If the Democrats take the Senate, he could have more power than he’s ever had, more power than he’s ever imagined. He could be chairman of the Budget Committee. Imagine. That’s power! As any Marxist knows, the budget is what it’s all about.

He has a national stage. A legion who’d follow him through a brick wall. A Senate seat for life. He can leave a huge mark on this country.
But right now, he and Jane are like Thelma and Louise. Driving the car off the cliff. With Weaver in the backseat for good measure, saying “let’s not get caught” as Bernie floors it.

The cliff is in Philadelphia. There’s still time to hit the brakes. But it’s not clear the wheelman is interested.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/05/19/bernie-and-jane-sanders-the-democratic-party-s-thelma-and-louise.html
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 May, 2016 01:16 am
Bernie supporters weren't violent. Hillary supporters are creating false narratives to divert attention from their cheating.

http://www.sansmemetics.com/2016-the-year-americans-learned-their-elections-are-rigged/

Hillary Clinton pays people to pretend to be Bernie supporters, created the whole thug narrative and tried to use it against Obama. She added in the racial stuff against him too, and floated the idea about assassination as well. Nobody runs a campaign dirtier than Clintons.

What it is achieving is a Trump or Bernie presidency.

And a new party emerging from the ashes of the old, so-called Democrat party.
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  2  
Reply Thu 19 May, 2016 04:47 am
@reasoning logic,
Bernie is an Independent...he should have decided if he liked the rules that have been in place for running as a Dem before he decided to run as one. Case closed.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  2  
Reply Thu 19 May, 2016 05:57 am
@reasoning logic,
The delegate count is proportional in every state. Hillary has the most delegates so she has the most votes. Plain and simple math. Any argument like yours RL is simply bull ****.
0 Replies
 
 

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