Turning The Ballot Box Against Republicans

The U.S. stock market has been exceeding record highs for several days now.
Beneath all the hysteria of progressives, who have still not grasped the reasons for their defeat in the election, optimism about our economic future continues to grow. We may be seeing one of the nation's major eposodes of cognative dissonance.

Why weren't record stock market numbers indicative of economic optimism when Obama had a bunch of them (you know, all the time since 2013)?

Some thoughts on "War & Cognitive Dissonance In America".

https://www.nolanchart.com/article5094-war-cognitive-dissonance-in-america-html

It was used as a measure of success during the Obama years. I remember CI and Bobsal both doing so and talking about how awesome they were doing personally.

Have done very well during my working years regardless of who our president was. Studied and worked hard; it paid off handsomely. Retired early, and traveled to over 80 countries.

I don't fault you for it in the least, given what we know about your history, you are the American success story.

So are the democrats expressing cognitive dissonance NOW or were republicans expressing cognitive dissonance THEN?

"several days now"

hot damn that's funny.

Even funnier if you think about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929#Timeline

The stock market as a measure that everything's right with the world. You are without a doubt my favourite cartoon character GOB.

Take a closer look at the charts. the stock market had a nice recovery from a deep recession thru 2013 then stagnated until last November.. Labor market participation also stagnated and young folks entering the lavbor market found prospects fairtly slim. The market is up, even as the Fed talks about intertest rate rises, which may end the plight of savers looking to presertve their purchasing power. It's still early to declare victory but the signs are very good.

You mean this chart, that shows continual growth except for a period in 2015 when things were flat but still VERY high?

http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

It's one indicator. It's doing quite well over here too post Brexit, sterling has slumped and there's talk of businesses moving out.

It's like going to see the doctor with a broken leg, he takes your temperature and declares you fit and healthy.

Labor force participation rate is a minor statistic. If 5 Million get a job this month, the labor force participation rate would be the same as if 5 Million people lose a job this month. It's not an important indicator. But the conservatives throw the number around so much, they should change its name to Labor Force Pavlov Rate.

What is important is that since the end of the recession at the end of 2009, the country has GAINED over 10 Million Full Time jobs.

Currency movements are really interesting.

If your currency goes down your exports get cheaper and your imports more expensive which seems pretty good for your current account - except most nations carry a debt so even the interest payments get way more expensive.

And depending on your economy and your production base it can have wild impacts on your cost of living. Add to that trade is more globalised what was once a isolated domestic market is now subject to international supply and demand. So Oz consumer products (whitegoods, electronics and cars) are virtually all imported and price varies depending on what percentage of a US dollar ours will buy so a big hit to CPI when the dollar goes down. Natural gas - which way have in abundance - is getting way more expensive here because domestic users are now bidding against the international market.

Australian beef prices go up as China eats more of it. We get Peruvian limes and Californian lemons (well we did when the Oz dollar had parity).

Even our famously overheated real estate market is at least partially affected by overseas investment.


A high CPI then affects spending patterns and consumer confidence which slows money churn and kills local producers/suppliers which stunts GDP, which impacts your currency value.

It's hard not to think of an economy as a herd of cats that you try to steer away from various cliffs as you see them on the horizon. It feels like our respective governments are getting more and more myopic and the cliffs ever closer before we veer wildly away (e.g. the GFC) - and I think that is because short term politics is winning over long game policy.

Short-term politics always have won over long-term politics. Most people have short memories. Most people only worry about their own situation with little control over it. We never know when energy prices goes up or down.

Even our famously overheated real estate market is at least partially affected by overseas investment.
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You can be totally unaffected by that with an self heating/self cooling Earthship, easy for you to build yourself.

See,

PASH

https://able2know.org/topic/368411-1

Not to mention homeowners who are just about keeping things together with current interest rates. Once inflation kicks in and interest rates have to go up there with be a ton of repossessions.

All the wise people have fixed-rate mortgages. Although I do recognize that this leaves the problem of all the foolish people.

Most are fixed rate for the term of the mortgage loan.

This is a minority of home owners, as most mortgages in the US are done as 30 year fixed mortgage rates. This was the problem prior to 08, there were a lot of a.r.m. loans that people were not paying attention to. It's why people saw their payments go from under $1000 a month to doubling the next month, they didn't watch for when their "arm" was ready to change.