2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

Gerald Ford celebrated his 90th earlier this week.

Thats not true, actually. The negatives for Bush have been anything but stable.

They went up from the 20-30% range when he started to 30-40% in August 01; after 9/11 they dropped to less than 10%, then steadily increased to 30-40% again by early 2003. Dropped to 20-25% when the Iraq war broke out, rose back to 40-45% last autumn. Dropped again when Saddam was arrested, and now the last two polls have it on between 45-50%.

In short, it seems that after every war/terror-related low in his disapproval rate, there is a new high - and every new high is higher than the one before. The first two times it rose to 30-40%; time after that, it rose to 40-45%; now it's risen to up to 50%. There is an encouraging trend there ;-)

Good evening...According to NPR, Kerry has had a good day in WA and MI. What have y'all heard?

nimh's quote, "There is an encouraging trend there ;-)" I totally agree. All we can hope for is that trend continues until November.

Where did y'all go? Nothing since Sat evening. No cicerone, nimh, pdiddie, bumblebee, timber, et al. Is the contest for the Dem nomination really and truly over?

Been a little busy around Timberland the last few days, RJB ... was a bit of weather, some related work-stuff, and some freinds visiting from the flatlands. All in all, somewhat more entertaining than the Reality TV posturings of the footnotes-to-be. Things seem to have settled down locally, and I look forward to being able to devote more attention to the truly inconsequential

Hi, rjb...sometimes life in the offline world needs to be attended to, as timber has indicated...

There'll be more to talk about after the primaries tomorrow.

Cool. So tomorrow we have primaries in the "southern" states of TN and VA. I can't talk about TN. But re VA:
Kerry will win with the same double digit margin he enjoyed in MI and WA.
VA is not a "southern" state anymore. Most of the population lives in the suburbs across the Potomac from DC (Kerry Dems), down I-95 to Richmond (with a large and liberal African-American presence), and then to the east, the coastal cities of Norfolk, Chesapeake and Newport News.
Industrial places with unionized jobs. The rest of the state, with the exception of the college towns of Charlottesville and Blacksburg, is all that is left of the Rural South in VA. Slim pickings for Edwards and Clark.
When we register to vote in VA we do not have to declare our party affiliation so tomorrow's primary is, in theory, open to anyone. Repubs can vote if they want to. -rjb-

Oh yeah, here's Zogby for tomorrow's votes:

VA
Kerry 47%
Edwards 24%
Clark 11%
Dean 10%

TN
Kerry 45%
Edwards 21%
Clark 19%
Dean 5%

The democrats continue wasting money on lost causes...You would think that their liberal tendancies would make them realize they have no hope of winning and they could donate the remains of their campaign war chests to a food bank/homeless shelter/ education system...

McGent, It's about time you neo-cons get your facts straight. Bushies disapproval rating is now 54 percent and "increasing." You're the ones that should be contributing those those "food banks/homeless shelters/and educational system that Bush demolished.

Here's the latest Zogby poll. http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=732

I am referring to the losers of the democratic race. Kucinich , Dean, Reverend Al, Clark and Edwards. None of them stand a change at getting the nomination now, yet they continue to waste money at a rate that can make ones head spin...

I'm talking about GWBush - the loser.

I'm still here ... kinda. At home my cable went down, and I wont have time to stay home for the repairman for another week or so. And I had a meeting all weekend, so little time (or energy) to check in at some internet cafe, either.

Also, the prospect of Kerry Vs Bush doesnt really fire me up.

Meanwhile, though, the polls just keep coming in, almost as if meant to keep a Democratic-minded heart glowing with some unexpected hope ...

since I last posted there's been these, for example:

Newsweek Poll, Feb. 5-6, 2004

George W. Bush 45% (-1)
John Kerry 50% (+2)
Other (vol.)/Undecided 5% (-1)

"In general, would you like to see George W. Bush reelected to another term as president, or not?"

Yes 45%
No 50%
Don't Know 5%

(Interesting in that one is that Edwards, Dean and Clark do about as much less well as Kerry - clocking 43-44% against Bush's 49-51% - and that, among them, Clark does worst.)

Time/CNN Poll, Feb. 5-6, 2004

George W. Bush 50% (-4)
John Kerry 48% (+5)
Not Sure 2% (-1)

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Feb. 4-5, 2004.

George W. Bush 47% (-2)
John Kerry 43% (+1)
Other (vol.)/Not Sure 9% (+1)

Associated Press poll, Feb. 2-4, 2004.

"If the election were held today, would you definitely vote to reelect George W. Bush as president, consider voting for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else as president?"

Definitely Bush 37% (-4)
Consider Someone Else 18% (-6)
Vote for Someone Else 43% (+10)

More ...

Are the USA on the right or on the wrong track? How does people's satisfaction compare to, say, this time four years ago, the year Gore was up for election against Bush?

Time/CNN Poll, Feb. 5-6, 2004.

"How well do you think things are going in the country these days? . . . "

Very/Fairly Well 60%
February 2004
January 2004 65%
February 2000 80%

Associated Press poll . Feb. 2-4, 2004

"Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?"

Right Direction 44% (Jan: 49%)
Wrong Track 52% (Jan: 46%)

Gallup Poll. Jan. 12-15, 2004.

"In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?"

January 2004:
Satisfied 46%
Dissatisfied 53%

January 2000:
Satisfied 69%
Dissatisfied 28%

Interesting ... here, Bush shows a one-week positive shift of 8 points vs Kerry, 5 points vs Edwards, 2 points vs Clark, and 3 points vs Dean. While the results for vs Clark and Dean are within the MOE, the results for vs Kerry and Edwards are statistically significant to the 95th percentile or better. Actually, however, what likely is most pertinent is that across a broad spectrum of concurrent polls, there are differing values within a narrow range-set, indicating very little of significance beyond Bush the Younger scoring preponderantly at or above the 50th percentile, with all others scoring below, though each by margins within or not far outside the respective MOEs of the various polls. I would hazzard the guess that not much of relevance to the coming 9 months or so can be drawn from the so-far-available data. It seems to me Bush enjoys, at least currently and historically, a fairly solid core of support, while the various contenders seem to glow and then dim more or less as the wind blows. This isn't too surprising; the contest to determine who gets to contest Bush the Younger is getting far more attention than is Bush the Younger. Folks tend to think more about what's in-their-face-at-the-moment than to consider the broader picture. Of one thing I'm relatively confident; there will be further swings and shifts of opinion. If, as now seems given, Kerry emerges from today's primaries even more strongly the nominee-apparent, he simply presents himself as a larger target for directed attack, both internecine and from Bush the Younger's re-election machine.

A couple more thoughts; Dean's decision to repudiate his earlier pronouncement regarding his Post-Wisconsin Plans will serve him not at all well in the long run, and Clark and Edwards both will be too broke to continue much longer, while Kucinich and Sharpton may be expected, by virtue of not spending much anyway, to choose to press on at least through Super Tuesday, if for no other reason than to remain in the public eye. The field is likely to narrow sharply after the 17th, if not by tomorrow. Even if Dean persists, making it, in his words, a "Two Man Race", Kerry has a roughly 30-point general advantage over Dean, or better, in almost all state preference polls. In that two-man race, Kerry is driving a sports car, while Dean is pushing a wheelbarrow.

Good evening...a few quick comments re VA and TN...
The turnout was something like 340,000 in VA. That was disappointing. I was hoping for more like 450,000. But this was only the second time we Dems had ever done this and perhaps the Deanites
rolled over. Anyway, at 7 am, one hour after the polls opened, I was voter #7 in my precinct.
I mentioned before that VA is not, as I see it, a "southern" state anymore. Kerry came in at 51%; Edwards and Clark, together, came in at 36%.
Contrast that to TN where Kerry is at about 40% while Edwards and Clark combine for about 49% .

If I can decipher the notes on the back of an envelope, Clark lost badly in VA but is tied with Edwards in TN.
What do y'all reckon their strategies are for the rest of the race? And when will Dean fold up his tent?
Thanks. I enjoy talking with y'all about this. Most of my friends run away when they see me coming; knowing that I might talk about the mechanics of our political system in the US. -realjohnboy-

My wife heard that Dean changed his mind about Wisconsin. That he's planning to continue his campaign even if he loses. I think one needs to have some confidence, but in his case.......

That's the story c.i. Dean's now saying he's going to hang in there regardless of what happens in WI.

At this point Dean is doing so badly that there isn't any realistic hope of getting the nod. He's still (unless things have changed very recently) holding a handful of Super-delegates so the only thing I can think of is that he's going to try and hang in to force some sort of concession in the Party Platform and he could end up playing the king maker at the convention.

Edwards has at least a few Super-delegates and is pretty much running in the #2 position all over the place at this point - I suspect that it will come down to a horse race between him and Kerry at the convention. If Dean falls into Edward's camp it'll be a loooong convention with lots of those late night meetings in smoke filled rooms. (Dean is still ahead of Edwards in the delegate count. That probably won't hold much longer but he's still picking up enough that he might be able to sway things..)

Clark has to win a race between now and Super-Tuesday or just call it quits. He doesn't have any Super-delegates to bargin with and he's not winning any races.