2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

Compliments, by the way, for Scrat's amazing politeness in the midst of the heated deate ... man, do I wish I could live up to that standard always.

Now how did that sneak in there?

After reading and hearing "unelectable" for weeks and months, insiders who want to be quoted know what they must say. A top Democratic consultant describes the leading candidate as almost fatally gaffe-prone when responding to negative stories. "It's not so much the thing he did that was so bad," the consultant explains, "but how he handles it, and people remember how he handles it." Another top Democratic consultant concurs gloomily: "The doubts already exist and they're becoming harder to dispel."

And a third top Democratic consultant hints that disaster is looming: "The negatives are forming on him like a political stalactite, drop by drop. The halls of Congress are filled with Democrats wringing their hands over their prospective nominee."

The former Democratic Mayor of New York describes his party's leading candidate as "so flawed" that he has "no possibility of … defeating President Bush."


They must be talking about Howard Dean.

Actually, all those remarks were uttered about Bill Clinton in the spring of 1992...

PARADISE LOST
Has the Dean Campaign Reached Its Upper Limit of Support?
by Sandeep Kaushik

[..] But exactly how big is the Dean blaze? That is the crucial question for Democrats desperate to unseat Bush. Trippi's imagery of a Dean conflagration notwithstanding, the fourth-quarter hard numbers are worrisome. When is a record $15 million fundraising total, and an army of 550,000 identified supporters, a disappointment? Answer: When it's juxtaposed against web guru Trippi's promise that harnessing the Internet would facilitate near exponential growth in Dean's support base, enabling it to pose a realistic organizational and fundraising threat to the Bush juggernaut.

In early 2003, starting from near zero, Trippi insanely promised 150,000 supporters by June 30. He delivered 159,000. Then he insanely promised 450,000 by September's end--and delivered that too. So when he predicted 900,000 devoted supporters by the end of the year, and 2,000,000 by the November election, it seemed not just plausible but inevitable. When he said that each supporter might reasonably donate $100 to the campaign--producing $200 million to match the $200 million flooding Bush's coffers--and when Dean opted out of the public financing system in a show of fundraising faith, it seemed like Trippi was onto something. And when he added that Dean's mushrooming grassroots base proved him the most electable Dem, who then could contradict him?

But now, premonitions of trouble. This quarter the number of Deaniacs began to plateau, up a mere 100,000; it was supposed to balloon more than three times that. And the money total was only a fraction more than the $14.8 million Dean raised in the fall. At this pace there will be no $200 million in the Dean arsenal--or even half that much. Most ominously, the number of Dean contributors actually fell, from 168,533 to 146,697. Might the grassroots' fervor be slipping? Could the Dean campaign be reaching its upper limit of support? Are the number of anti-Bush anti-warriors simply too few?

[..] Of course, we won't know that until after the nomination is decided, probably in Dean's favor. Trippi (correctly) asserts the Beltway punditocracy has underestimated the Dean campaign at every turn. Trippi and Dean spent the last year consistently confounding such critics, pulling rabbits out of hats with routine regularity. They may do so again this election year. Trippi still seems sure the campaign will reach its goal of two million check-writing volunteers. Dems should pray that his magic act is not an illusion, because otherwise Dean--and the Democrats--are doomed.

Poll: Hispanics show more support for Bush
More than half think the president is doing a good job

By Will Lester
The Associated Press
Updated: 5:01 p.m. ET Jan. 08, 2004

WASHINGTON - President Bush starts this election year in a relatively strong position among Hispanics, who reacted favorably to the capture of Saddam Hussein, according to poll results released Thursday.

More than half, 54 percent, in the poll done for the Pew Hispanic Center in early January, said they think the president is doing a good job.

Almost four in 10, 37 percent, said they would like to see President Bush re-elected. Less than half in the poll, 47 percent, said they would prefer that a Democratic candidate win the election.

Those results are significantly better for Bush than in a poll taken by the same group right before the capture of Saddam. [..]

The January poll was taken just before Bush proposed a plan that could brighten his election-year prospects with Hispanic voters, a fast-growing part of the electorate. Bush on Wednesday proposed granting legal status — at least temporarily — for millions of illegal immigrants working in the United States. [..]

Pollster Sergio Bendixen said the level of support for Bush’s re-election should not be overemphasized since the poll was of Hispanic adults, not Hispanic voters. But he said the level of support from Hispanics had been dropping through 2003, and definitely moved up over the last month.

“These two polls show the volatility of Hispanics and tend to reinforce those who feel Hispanics are a swing vote in the 2004 election,” Bendixen said.

In the poll taken in early December, fewer than half of the Hispanics said Bush was doing a good job, and about a fourth said they would vote to re-elect him. [..]

Democrat Al Gore got 62 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000, according to exit polls, while Bush got 35 percent.