2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

Good takes, Brand. Thanks.

I thought tonight's winners included Dennis Kucinich (who pimp-slapped Ted Koppel for his crappy questions) and John Kerry (who said "we shouldn't dis other countries." Together with his earlier four-letter description of Bush's Iraq folly, I'm pretty certain he's recently rented Bulworth.)

Holy Joe came out swingin'; Clark and Dean scored a time or two; Rev. Al, CMB, Gep and John Edwards made their presence felt.

I always get to the end of these debates thinking how excellent any one of these people would be as President (compared to the Chimp-in-Chief).

C-Span will repeat the debate tonight at 9 CST.

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Seemed they had more time to get their message out, Dean was good in pointing out how much time they spent on Iraq.

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I thought Dean handled himself well enough to do no damage to his putative frontrunner status. I don't really think any of the others substantively advanced themselves, while Kerry and Clark, in my estimation, both underperformed. Still, I see Clark as likely Deans strongest competitor, though Gephardt could surprise. I'm really starting to think Kerry is toast, and I don't think Lieberman will survive the blow dealt by Gore. And again as usual, the supporting players were present. I don't think Sharpton was really on his best tonight, for some reason ... some "Zing" seemed to be missing. Kucinich scored the best with his condemnation of the hoopla surrounding the endorsement, but he's too far out for that to have made any difference. That's my take anyway; its narrowing down to Dean vs Clark, with Gephardt not yet to be discounted.

Oh, and what is it about about "Now, if Democrats did Machiavelli (or Shakespeare) well, one might expect Gore to step into the role of Dean's Veep-wannabee-to-be." and "Actually, that's most improbable on several levels.", the sentences of mine which flank the thus self-declaredy improbable conjecture by which some appear to infer I lent any credibility to a Gore Veep bid, is so hard to understand?

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Dean now has the nomination IF he does not lose it to himself.

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Gotta agree, Dys ... its his to lose now.

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I admire Lieberman's class, always a gentleman.

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Now, this is what I want to know..........Timber, did you get my PM? If so, please send an answer to my question............thankyouverymuch

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Lola wrote:

Now, this is what I want to know..........Timber, did you get my PM? If so, please send an answer to my question............thankyouverymuch

Ya got me there, Lola ... not sure what you're asking about. PM me again, if you would; I may have tossed it inadvertantly in a general cleanup of my inbox, which is always overfull Rolling Eyes

Sorry for any confusion ... I'm really not ignoring you :wink:

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Quinnipiac University has its latest national pollof the Dem field. MoE +/- 5%. (Late October results in parentheses).

Dean 22 (13)
Undecided 18 (17)
Lieberman 13 (13)
Clark 12 (17)
Gephardt 9 (12)
Kerry 8 (10)
Sharpton 8 (5)
Edwards 5 (8)
Braun 3 (3)
Kucinich 2 (3)

Kerry is at the Sharpton line. Edwards is below it.

Clark has taken a serious hit and is now beind Lieberman in the poll. And Dean... this poll was conducted 12/4-8, or before the Gore endorsement.

In other words, this poll confirms the latest Gallup poll; that Dean had serious momentum even before the Gore announcement.

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Interesting that Dean's support has surged, while Lieberman appears consistent while all the others, except Sharpton and CMB, "Also Rans" anyway, have declined. I note too that "Undecided" has ticked up a tad ... all of which may be significant. It seems to me that Dean is "The One To Beat", and it seems, oddly enough, that only Lieberman is posed to mount a credible challenge. It also seems to me premature to be making such pronouncements six weeks before the first primaries, but what the heck ... its irresistable. Sorta like gaping at a freeway pileup in which one's self is not involved.

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PDiddie wrote:

In other words, this poll confirms the latest Gallup poll; that Dean had serious momentum even before the Gore announcement.

timberlandko wrote:

Interesting that Dean's support has surged, while Lieberman appears consistent while all the others, except Sharpton and CMB, "Also Rans" anyway, have declined. I note too that "Undecided" has ticked up a tad ... all of which may be significant.

But in the Gallup poll, based on a survey on pretty much the same days (Dec 5-7 instead of Quinnipiac's December 4-8):

- Clark and Gephardt were stationary,
- it was Lieberman taking the biggest hit (-3%)
- the number of undecideds was down too (-3%)

So though the Dean rise was similarly striking in both pre-Gore endorsement polls, evidence on the other suggested trends (did Clark take a hit or stay stable? Did Lieberman stay consistent or slip down? Were the number of undecideds up or down?) is all contradictory.

(These the Gallup figures, cause I dont think they were listed here yet - between parentheses the mid-November figures:)

Howard Dean 25 (17)
Wesley Clark 17 (17)
Dick Gephardt 14 (13)
Other/None/No opinion 10 (13)
Joe Lieberman 10 (13)
John Edwards 7 (6)
John Kerry 7 (9)
Carol Moseley Braun 5 (4)
Al Sharpton 3 (5)
Dennis Kucinich 2 (3)

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Interesting to see Lieberman ahead of Clark.

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Interesting to note how much nearly concurrent polls can vary. A reminder that sample sizes are usually too small, the art of sampling is not so well developed as the authors often suggest, and that at least occasionally there is built in bias in the methodology.

However, that said, Dean's persistent lead is undeniable, as is the fact that Gebhart, Clark, and Lieberman are his only truly serious competitors. Kerry appears to be on the knife edge. (Sharpton has also achieved his goal of national prominence and being taken seriously.) The enthusiasm some Democrats have shown for Dean began fairly early in the campaign. It has been consistent and growing. In my view he is, by far the likely winner.

It is interesting to me to speculate what might have been Al Gore's motives for his endorsement. Why now? Why Dean and not Lieberman? I also get the feeling that Clark is merely a proxy for Hillary, in case she concludes that Bush can be beaten and wishes to jump in late in the game, with Clark as her natural running mate. If that is true, then Gore's endorsement takes on even more significance. Certainly Dean represents the more radical left wing elements of the party, just as Clinton focused on its center. Gore did run a more populist, divisive campaign than did Clinton in his victories. Are we seeing the real Al Gore, now fully free of the Clinton embrace?

It is all for naught. That Dean will lead the Democrats to defeat, as did similar candidates in earlier elections (McGovern, Dukakis, Mondale) now seems very likely. Not a bad outcome in my book.

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Dean no doubt.
I feel that Dean has a damn good chance to kick Dufus Dubya out of the white house and send his sorry ass back to TX.

The Neo cons are shooting themselves in the feet. Once the American people understand that Dubya is under the orders of the Neo cons to destroy the Middle Class it will be over for those bungling thieves.

The Multi-corps are being seen as traitors to the American people and Dubya's gang are seen as aiding them in pillaging America's people and environment.

Iraq and Afghanistan are failures and most people now accept that Dubya misrepresented the Iraq invasion, if not outright lied about the urgency to expend $150 Billion and 400 lives of American troops, thousands of Iraqies for a land grab so his rich cronies can make billions, such as Haliburton.

This regime has been the absolute worse one in American history. This chapter in our history is a disgrace and a shameful stain on our American ideals. The Dubya Admin. are criminals and should be prosecuted, not merely thrown out.

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Pistoff - Thanks for a great laugh!

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Re: Dean no doubt.

pistoff wrote:

I feel that Dean has a damn good chance to kick Dufus Dubya out of the white house and send his sorry ass back to TX.

The Neo cons are shooting themselves in the feet. Once the American people understand that Dubya is under the orders of the Neo cons to destroy the Middle Class it will be over for those bungling thieves.

The Multi-corps are being seen as traitors to the American people and Dubya's gang are seen as aiding them in pillaging America's people and environment.

Interesting comments in light of this morning's Boston Globe story on Dean.

Quote:

For Dean, 'captive' insurance a Vt. boon
By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, 12/12/2003

Howard Dean is fond of criticizing politicians who provide tax breaks to "large corporate interests," and one of his favorite campaign lines is a blast at the Bush administration for doling out tax cuts to top executives of Enron Corp.

But during Dean's 11 years as Vermont governor, he enacted tax breaks that attracted to the state a "Who's Who" of corporate America -- including Enron -- to set up insurance businesses. Indeed, Dean said in 2001 that he wanted Vermont to "overtake Bermuda" as the "world's largest" haven for a segment of the insurance industry known as "captives," which refers to firms that help insure their parent companies.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/dean/articles/2003/12/12/for_dean_captive_insurance_a_vt_boon/

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fishin' - I believe we're about to get a lesson in "good" corporations vs. "bad" corporations, and how one can be either depending on whether it is found in bed with a Democrat or a Republican.

I often wonder what liberals would do if it were discovered that welfare programs are good for tobacco companies*. I bet their heads would explode.

---------------------
* Welfare programs are not, to my knowledge, good for tobacco companies, I simply wanted to set up a random example where something liberals love benefitted something they hate.

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Quote:

Nader: `High probability' of run in '04
By David R. Guarino
Saturday, December 13, 2003

Presidential campaign spoiler Ralph Nader yesterday said there's a ``high probability'' he'll join the 2004 race, striking fear in the hearts of Democrats who saw liberal voters abandon Al Gore in 2000.

Nader, the well-known consumer advocate, told CNN the exploratory committee he's now guiding is likely to launch him into another Green Party run.

``It's a high probability, but that is yet to be determined,'' Nader said.

But Nader already is talking like a candidate, criticizing Democrats as virtually identical to Republicans.

``I think there's a great need for a progressive candidate for the presidency,'' the longtime consumer advocate said. ``The two parties are very much dialing for the same commercial dollars. The two parties are ignoring issues like a living wage.''

Democratic strategist Doug Hattaway said Nader wouldn't draw as many votes as in 2000, which Democrats blame for Bush's narrow win in the contested Florida race - the decisive ballot that won the election.

``Nader knows he can't win, he'd only be running for his own ego,'' said Hattaway, Gore's former spokesman. ``He'd only make matters worse than they already are and make it more likely Bush would win another term.''

Sen. John F. Kerry's presidential campaign spokesman Michael Meehan said Nader should simply get in the primary race ``if he wants to represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.''

© Copyright by Herald Interactive Advertising Systems, Inc.
No portion of BostonHerald.com or its content may be reproduced without the owner's written permission

http://www.able2know.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10156/normal_1smile%21.jpg

This is just too rich, too good to hope for. I just sent Nader a glowing letter and a hundred bucks.

Teeheeheeheehee.

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The transcript of what Ralph Nader said on Thursday is

HERE

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2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

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