timberlandko wrote:Just early polls, of course, but offering some indication of electorate mood being elsewhere than in the Democratic Camp: [..]
Bush 49
Democrat 44
Then again, even in this poll, which does sketch a much gloomier picture for the Dems than last week's Time/CNN poll, Bush's lead actually went down from 8% to 5% in just the one month. After all, a month ago in the same poll, Bush polled 48% against 40% for the Democratic candidate. I.e., Bush stays stable while "Don't know"ers go Democrat in inclination. So there's some hope in there yet.
On the other hand, Timber is absolutely right in pinpointing the other bad news for the Dems in polls like this: the anonymous, generic Democrat fares a whole lot better than Dean or Lieberman does. Its easy to say, oh dont want no Bush anymore, but apparently a lot harder to say, why, les' have Dean, instead. And there's no easy way out there for the Dems - Clark surely wont do better, its too early for Hillary, and too late for Gore.
On, err, a third or fourth hand (or something), again, one more relativation is in order tho. Just look at
this page from the same site. Just last month, according to a Fox poll, 42% never even heard of Dean yet. And according to a CBS poll on Dean, 61% "hadnt heard enough" and another 16% was "undecided" when asked for an opinion on the guy. I.e. - to a significant part of the electorate, the guy is terra incognita - and many of these sorts will be included in polls like ABC's as well.
Thus, when asked to say, would you vote for Bush or Dean, to a great many people the question comes down to, would you vote for Bush or for someone you've never / hardly heard of. If you look at it that way, its only logical that the generic "Democrat" still does a lot better than Dean, Kerry or any of these guys half to three quarters of those polled hardly heard of, and the candidates' campaigns still have a fair opportunity at filling some gaps there.