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2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

 
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 08:32 am
http://i.cnn.net/cnn/2003/ALLPOLITICS/09/05/elec04.poll.analysis/story.dems.poll.gif

Zogby SC Poll
Quote:
Released: September 04, 2003
Zogby's South Carolina Polling Shows Four Candidates Tied for Lead; Nearly Half of Likely Voters Still Undecided; Sharpton's Candidacy a Dud.


Polling of likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina indicates that the current presidential hopefuls' campaigns have yet to catch fire. Four candidates are in a virtual tie for the lead, and 46% of respondents are not yet sure which candidate to support.

NC Senator John Edwards, former VT Governor Dr. Howard Dean, MA Senator John Kerry, and CT Senator Joseph Lieberman are deadlocked for first place in the polling, yet none of them has reached double digits except for rounding. All four earned 8-10%.

Edwards............10%
Dean..................9
Kerry.................8
Lieberman..........8
Sharpton............5
Gephardt............4
Graham..............2
Clark..................2
Mosley Braun......2
Kucinich.............2
Someone Else.....6
Not Sure...........46

So, more than half of SC Dems are for "None of the Above". Commenting on this,
Zogby wrote:
Pollster John Zogby: "This campaign is not even on the radar screen in South Carolina. While Edwards and Dean have made gains since our last poll, it is more like a bump on a carpet than a surge. No candidate has the edge, and it looks like South Carolina will be shaped by Iowa and New Hampshire. In this kind of vacuum, Clark may seize the moderate mantle. Once a hope for Lieberman, this looks like an early fizzle. Gephardt's support is reduced to half of what it had been. Graham is nowhere. If Kerry's announcement this week helped him, could he actually have been lower than 8% before? And Sharpton is only getting single-digit support among African Americans. This is wide open."


The article goes on (and bear in mind it is registered, "Likely to Vote" Democrats being polled):
Quote:
More than half (55%) of the respondents said it is somewhat (29%) or very likely (26%) that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, regardless of how they intend to vote.

More than a third (35%) give President Bush a positive job performance rating, while 64% say it is fair or poor. When asked if they like or dislike Bush as a person, 58% responded positively, compared to 28% who say they dislike him.

One in four (24%) would support a Democratic candidate who favored marriage of gay people, while two-thirds would not.

Dean, who surged to a 38% - 17% lead over his nearest competitor in New Hampshire polling last week, holds the fourth highest "unfamiliar" rating in South Carolina. Retired General Wesley Clark has not yet announced his candidacy, although an announcement is expected soon.


Two thirds of Americans still can't name a Democratic candidate.
CBS Sept. 2cnd Poll

Quote:
Moreover, when voters - Democrats or otherwise --are asked off the top of their head to name a Democratic candidate running for president, two-thirds are unable to do so. For the first time, Howard Dean is now the most frequently mentioned by voters, with 11%, followed by 7% who say John Kerry, and 5% who mention Joe Lieberman. Among Democratic voters, more mention Dean than any other candidate.

Leading the Democratic Polls at present is akin to heading a parade which is going nowhere.
0 Replies
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 08:42 am
c.i. -- the thread's been stretched because of an extra long link you posted. Could you edit it an use the URL button in the post reply?
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 08:48 am
Actually, The Kosovo intervention was a NATO operation because The UN refused to get involved. It was not untill the bombing was over that the UN took any role beyond handwringing.
Quote:
Diplomatic caution

The current crisis in the Balkans has also focused attention on the role of the Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

After the bombing started he issued a statement that was a masterstroke of diplomatic caution, saying that while force was sometimes needed to achieve peace, it is always better to have UN endorsement before using it.

Since then journalists have been bombarding Mr Annan's spokesman with the same basic question, "Is the Secretary General going to mediate in the conflict?"

The answer, more or less, is a firm no, with UN officials saying Mr Annan has no intention of getting involved unless his bosses in the Security Council can bury their differences, which brings us back to where we started.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/310701.stm
0 Replies
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 08:53 am
I was cautious in saying UN involvement and not UN endorsed. The UN, however, was already present in the area and admitedly ineffectual in doing anything concrete to resolve the conflict.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 08:53 am
The Kosovo war was started without approval of the UN, as a unilateral action of the US and NATO. The UN seal of approval came only afterwards. (And yes, I think it was a good idea).

My "is that true" was not about whether Kristol's National Standard was really going to publish that article - I believe it, thanks for the info. My question was about your inference, that "when your own ideological base begin drilling holes in your ship, it's likely to sink."

I couldnt imagine that the National Standard's liberal counterpart had never criticized Clinton's foreign policy adventures in the same kind of way, and we all know that, if they did, it didnt spell the end of his rule.

But, if you say that the liberal counterparts of the Standard didnt ever criticize Clinton like that, then your inference still stands, yes - though I'd say it'd be a pretty sad statement to make about the media in question ...
0 Replies
 
PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 08:55 am
timberlandko, tiresomely, wrote:
Leading the Democratic Polls at present is akin to heading a parade which is going nowhere.

I just can't help but be reminded, as timber continues to insist that Democrats have nothing to live for, of his dozens upon dozens of posts in the four "US-UN-Iraq" threads that WMD are 'just around the corner' (to quote another fabulously successful and effective Republican President).

In rebuttal, I offer:

Why George W. Bush Can't Win

...as well as the results of the most recent Time/CNN poll which reveal:

Quote:
Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Sept. 3-4, 2003. N=883 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.3.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection in 2004, would you say you will definitely vote for him, might vote for or against him, or will you definitely vote against him?"

Definitely For 29%
Might Vote ForOr Against 25%
Definitely Against 41%
Not Sure 5%


pollingreport.com
0 Replies
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 09:04 am
The black comedy "No Man's Land" from Bosnia is also a great film if one wants to try and understand what was going on there and the UN involvement:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0283509/
0 Replies
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 09:09 am
It's not unusual for The National Review to offer criticism of the Liberal or the Democrats, it is unsual for the National Standard to do sowith any conservative let alone a President. I'd have to go back into the National Review archives to see what they may have written about the war in Kosovo but as I remember they were very supportive. There were plenty of factions trying to bring down the Clinton presidency -- it's possible the National Review would believe they were being redundant. That was about an extra-marital affair and very questionable charge of perjury which was resolved out of court, this is about American lives and American spending of billions of dollars. I have a feeling that will effect everyone personally more than whether we are able to discuss blow jobs without blushing.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 09:14 am
Now, PDiddie, I never said "WMDs were 'just around the corner' in any of those threads. My position on justification for the war was clearly Saddam's failure to abide by the terms of the '91 ceasefire and the relevant UN Security Council Resolutions calling him to task for failure to provide proof of divestiture of known stocks of WMD. I frequently pointed out that the task of the UN Inspectors was not find WMDs, but to verify that known stocks of and capability to further produce WMDs had been disposed of in accordance with the requirements of the ceasefire and assorted Resolutions. I was concerned over the possibility of their use, yes. I also mentioned more than a few times that I was quite unhappy with The Administration's "Selling" of the war based on the WMD issue.
0 Replies
 
Tartarin
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 09:25 am
Just this morning, reading selected bits of news and opinion, I began to think that Wesley Clark looks like he may be a set-up -- somebody else's creature and not the stalwart independent portrayed. Anyone else have this impression?
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 09:33 am
I think maybe the whole circus is being orchestrated by Hillary to ensure herself an uncontested nomination in '08 ... a Democratic incumbent would be awfully inconvenient for her.
0 Replies
 
hobitbob
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 09:35 am
Now who is thinking "The aliens built the pyramids, kidnapped Elvis, and killed Kennedy" thoughts? Rolling Eyes
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 09:41 am
Ya think Hillary might be an alien? Laughing Laughing Laughing
0 Replies
 
Tartarin
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 09:45 am
Wait a minute -- I think Timber is 50% right here and 100% on the correct track. The track leads to the DLC; the goal probably has little to do with Hillary. The DLC/DNC are very clearly very pissed off at Dean's success AND INFLUENCE. It was obvious during the debate that the other candidates -- most notably Kerry and Lieberman -- had tailored their presentations to emulate and rival both the style and substance of Dean. The gang of Dem candidates look increasingly independent of HQ.

My suspicion is that Clark may be HQ's boy. This isn't built on UFO logic -- it's built on a review of the statements of the DLC/DNC over the past several months -- and particularly their mailings to Dems. Which have been a disgrace. They resort to multiple answer questions rather than actually observe or listen to Dem voters. They tried very hard to denigrate Dean and only got their fingers burned. They are very Bush-like at this point: half-way between trying to be ingratiating and trying to angrily fight their way back to controlling the party. My instinct is to try to stop them. They are corporate donor feeding tube.
0 Replies
 
PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 09:58 am
timber, amazingly, wrote:
Now, PDiddie, I never said "WMDs were 'just around the corner' in any of those threads.


Rolling Eyes *deep and heavy sigh* Confused

timber wrote:
No, Gel, I'm not. There is strong evidence Iraq produced, possesed, and concealed prohibited marial and programs. WMD will be found. As for WMD as a primary raison de guerre, I've long maintained that was a PR blunder of enormous proportion, and just one among many PR blunders The Current Administration has managed to drape over itself.


US-UN-Iraq II 4/14/03 8:08 am

timber wrote:
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/04/14/sprj.irq.labs/index.html

Of course, these are dual-use pizza delivery and cropseed treatment units ... perfectly innocent. There's bound to be a perfectly logical reason why they were buried near a munitions loading assembly facility. No doubt coincidence is involved; theses things always turn out to be not what at first they might have seemed. I imagine the half-ton of paperwork buried along with them will clear this silly misunderstanding right up.


US-UN-Iraq II 4/14/03 10:45 am

timber wrote:
http://www.iraqwatch.org/index.html

That link will provide hours of reading all by itself, and offers days worth of link chasing for any who care to inform themselves of the details surrounding Iraq's WMD activity. More can be found at www.fas.org

A perusal of the available documentation leads to but one conclusion.


US-UN-Iraq II 4/13/03 11:27 pm

timber wrote:
The other Uniformed Official has been tentatively identified as a major figure in the Regime's Military Scientific community. Veeeeerrrrrrry EEEEEN-teresting.


US-UN-Iraq II 4/12/03 8:47 am

and timber also wrote:
...A potential mobile bioweapon lab is very much in the news today, some considerable while beyond my 2 February allegation. A similar, in fact nearly identical, situation exists regardfing underground concealment of prohibited facilities. The "German Smallpox Link" story was later in the thread consigned to "The Bodyguard Story" category while occassioning comment critical of the probity bot of some Intel Sources and some media. I remain confident investigatoion opportunities afforded by nuetralization of Iraq's Military and occupation of her territory will produce conclusove evidence of WMD activi9ty on the part of Saddam's regime. "The Chemical Plant" was acknowledged, ackmowledged in facrt with your succeeding citation, as apparently having come to naught. That citation also contains my conjecture that the following day would see the first substantial contact with RG elements. It did. Fortunaty, the risk of WMD deployment was less than had been calculated. The Pentagon neither confirms nor denies the use of Thermobaric Munitions in the Persian Gulf Theater. Nor do they offer any comment regarding the unusual fires following certain major precision weapon strikes. Moving on, a second "site of WMD interest" was much in the news from 4 April and on, and, as I postulated, the next few days did see major related developments. The Mustard and Nerve Agent story may yet see further development, as painstaking investigation continues. The documentation referered to, for instance, has provided avenues of inquiry. And the Mobile BioWeapon Lab story has considerable present currency. Some smoke has dispersed and disappeared, yes. I figure, however, I've been on more often than off in my conjectures, and have often presented to inquiry on this forum tidbits which some time subsequent to my mention of the matter became Big News. On some things, I've clearly "Gotten it wrong", but I've generally been "In Front of Events". I was specifically bragging about having picked up another "Story" before it became "Big News".


US-UN-Iraq II 4/10/03 10:13 pm

I should mention that all times are CDT...

I'm tired. I don't want to do this any more.

(aside to timber: It's OK. Really. Bush lied to all of us.)
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 10:25 am
Again, PDiddie, I never said they were "just around the corner", I said then, and remain confident now, that evidence of prohibited WMD develeopment, concealment, and/or production will be found. See the comment by me you highlighted in blue, for instance.

And, as conveniently excerpted by you above,
I wrote:
No, Gel, I'm not. There is strong evidence Iraq produced, possesed, and concealed prohibited marial and programs. WMD will be found. As for WMD as a primary raison de guerre, I've long maintained that was a PR blunder of enormous proportion, and just one among many PR blunders The Current Administration has managed to drape over itself.


I don't mind criticism a bit. But get it right, huh? Your "refutation" there does a fine job of validating the point I had made earlier on this thread and to which you took exception. I don't mind being shown to be wrong; I've been known to admit and acknowledge error and accept correction from time to time ... even in some of those quotes of mine you just provided. In this regard, I've not been proven wrong; I just haven't yet been proven right.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 12:58 pm
I split the stuff about page display problems to the Help Forum: http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=11694

Maybe we can get it figured out there.
0 Replies
 
PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 01:07 pm
timberlandko wrote:
In this regard, I've not been proven wrong; I just haven't yet been proven right.


This is a truly pathetic parsing of words, timber (just like you're doing with 'just around the corner').

Bush and Co. feel exactly the same way, though, don't they?

(BTW, while researching the above I also found nimh's post which contained another fifteen examples of your 'smoking gun' theories of WMD about to be discovered. It's here,if anyone besides you needs convincing of your relentless Chicken Little impersonation. Gee, though; no "just around the corner" phrase, though, just like you said. Technically you were right, right? Rolling Eyes )

What your contention really highlights is the line of demarcation as it relates to this 'just war/unprovoked invasion'. It is precisely where conservatives and progressives part company. This is where (from my POV, of course) the parallel universe conservatives inhabit intersects the real world, but carries with it the Alice-in-Wonderland-like qualities of black being white, up being down and so forth.

How, for example, do you rationalize the Bushies' contention, pre-war, that we were in imminent danger of attack? You don't think it was lie or even an exaggeration (you and I have previously tillled that ground) and you obviously don't feel bad about the fact that hundreds of American soldiers and thousands of Iraqi civilians died because of 'it'.

This is exactly what millions of people across the world protested against, before the bombing and shooting started. They were all wrong too, right?

It does not seem to rationally follow--with the Bush cabal and their loyal supporters--that no matter what we are able to ever find in Iraq, we were not in any imminent danger of being attacked with it. The whole house of cards of justification for invasion falls apart as a result, but conservatives just don't go there. They just fall back to 'mass graves', or something else that sounds good.

Bush said we could not give the inspectors more time; that we had to go in right now.

That's the 'lie' part of it, in case you're still not clear. Oh, excuse me; 'PR blunder'.

A 'PR blunder'? Shocked With thousands dead as a result?

No, sir. Something much, much graver, I'm afraid.

And BTW, IMO you won't ever be right about the WMD.

Sorry about that, too.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 01:54 pm
Hey, so we look at it differently. That doesn't make either of us bad, either of us wrong, either of us right. That merely makes us different in viewpoint in this matter. I say again, I never maintained that Saddam's "Imminent Threat" was a valid justification for the war. UNSCRs 678, 687, 1248, and 1441 were the "Justifications" I held forth, and still do. Its not "Parsing Words" to point out that one did not say something one is alleged to have said.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Sep, 2003 02:30 pm
timber, Using all of those UN Resolution numbers don't mean much: all countries have broken them, or haven't you noticed? We should only enforce the one's against Iraq, and use bombs to make our point? There's something very wrong with that kind of enforcement.
0 Replies
 
 

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