@ossobuco,
I think Putin will ditch him, or he will conveniently be 'disappeared', Pinochet style.
Putin will at least try to appear to negotiate with the new guard, and if the new guard are serious about their intentions, then Ukraine might well enter into serious new negotiations with Russia, as well as the EU. It would serve everyone well to try and stabilise Ukraine as a neutral buffer, because both sides could live with that.
To have an ex Pres in the background, stirring things up, could cause Putin all sorts of embarrassment.
What Putin
won't stand for is a new pro western country materialising on his doorstep, so both sides need to take it easy with their east/west pulling.
If the west pull too hard and look to be winning, then the brown stuff could really hit the spinny thing.
Ukraine related trivia of the day......
The Victoria Cross, Britain's highest award for courage, is made of bronze taken from a Chinese made cannon used by the Russians, and seized by the British after the siege of Sevastapol (Sebastapol), in 1855.
Sevastapol is where the aforementioned Russian Black Sea Fleet is now stationed. (See walter's map, previous page)