COUP IN KYIV?

@hawkeye10,

Sooner than you think, if Putin didn't give a ****, his troops wouldn't be fannying about at the airport pretending to be local militia.

I'm sure he gives more than a **** about trade with the EU and his backer's property in Mayfair.

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@Lordyaswas,

Lordyaswas wrote:

I think he's angling for Crimea. He'll get that back before all this is over.

Whatever happens, the status of Crimea will be different. That doesn't necessarily mean it will become Russian, it may get far greater autonomy. Removing Crimea from Ukraine also means removing a lot of Russian supporters.

1 Reply

@Lordyaswas,

Crimea has a population that is 60 per cent ethnic Russian but the territory is controlled by and part of the Ukraine.
The question is how the current Ukrainian government will respond to this threat to its authority. I don't hope that it will be similar as it has been with and in Georgia in 2008.
If similar would happen - Putin would get the excuse for an invasion, something no-one really could wholeheartedly condemn in such a case.

1 Reply

@revelette2,

revelette2 wrote:

For some odd reason, I feel more familiar with middle east countries even though I don't know where or what their names are, I am at least familiar with some of them. Russia and Poland might as well be on Mars or in Sara Palin's backyard. But is Crimea by Odesa? Why isn't labeled?

Here's a map of the region, rev.
It just illustrates how much border Russia has with Ukraine, and it clearly shows Odessa.

If I stretch the page with this, I do apologize as I haven't a clue as to how to re-size something with this new fangled tablet.

http://www.russia-ukraine-travel.com/images/ukraine-map-large.jpg

1 Reply

@izzythepush,

If I was Putin I would aim for a new border following the River Dnipro to begin with, and then show what a nice guy I was by relinquishing a lot of it during ensuing negotiations until Ukraine agreed for Crimea to do their own thing.
Crimea is his end game.

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@Lordyaswas,

Latest....Armoured vehicles seen in Crimea, along with dozens of helicopters.

The reporter pointed out that the UN security council technically won't be able to act, as Russia has full power of veto over anything they might put forward.

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@Lordyaswas,

Lordy: If I was Putin...
----

Setanta doesn't approve of this, Lordy. You would fall into the uneducated slob category for this.

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@Lordyaswas,

Thanks, I could have looked it up and saved you the trouble, I apologize.

1 Reply

@revelette2,

Don't worry. It gives me practise at doing this sort of stuff on the tablet.
My laptop went pop about a week ago, and I'm waiting for my boy to fix it.

You'll also note a lot of typos at the moment. Tiny keyboard, big sausage fingers.

S8rry!

1 Reply

@Lordyaswas,

IPhone's are worse, I regularly have to back track because IPhone corrects with words I don't want to use.

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@revelette2,

Then you need to change your settings and inhibit the autocorrect.

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@revelette2,

I'm having that exact salad piggy bacon with my phone!

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@revelette2,

Just tap the iPhone suggested word, rev and it won't fill in.

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@revelette2,

revelette2 wrote:

Didn't Russia invade Georgia in 2008? What did we do but try to have both countries cease the violence?
Russia and Georgia Clash Over Separatist Region
I have no idea what if anything other countries should do in this situation.

It helps if the nation that we want to defend is already in NATO, and US troops are already there poised to defend them.

I expect that before we start pumping oil out of the northern Caspian, we'll make sure that we're ready and able to defend Georgia.

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@hawkeye10,

hawkeye10 wrote:

Obama's threats to Putin are hilarious...Putin has no reason to give a ****. It seems pretty clear to me that the Chinese are going to back Putin on this, and with their support he gets what he wants.

I've been amazed by all the hypocrisy about "territorial integrity" coming from the West. The hypocrisy is so blatant that I wonder if it isn't actually an attempt to goad Putin into doing something rash.

hawkeye10 wrote:

You see the theme developing already, the story is that the chaos in Ukraine is all the fault of Western agitation, and that this interference in Eastern affairs must stop.

Well, it seems pretty clear that this is all the fault of Western agitation.

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@Walter Hinteler,

Walter Hinteler wrote:

I don't hope that it will be similar as it has been with and in Georgia in 2008.
If similar would happen - Putin would get the excuse for an invasion, something no-one really could wholeheartedly condemn in such a case.

Ukraine is a different situation from Georgia because of the geography. The pro-European section of Ukraine includes an area situated very close to Moscow.

If Putin broke apart Ukraine and seized parts of it for himself, the parts that he didn't seize would join NATO in a heartbeat.

I'm pretty sure Putin would view that as a disaster. A NATO gun platform able to target Moscow with short-range missiles would make the city untenable as Russia's capital.

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So now we find, as predicted, that the Russian invasion of the Ukraine has begun.

If you choose not to believe that Putin has heavily factored into his decision the likely tepid response of the West in general and the Obama led US in particular, that is your perogative.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Quote:

If you choose not to believe that Putin has heavily factored into his decision the likely tepid response of the West in general and the Obama led US in particular, that is your perogative.

If putin did use military force in Ukraine what would the West do about it if they wanted to do something? Nothing is going to get through the UN, Putin and China will make sure of that. We need China to help in North Korea and we need there to not be a china/japan war, We all know that we will let Putin have Crimea if he demands it.

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@hawkeye10,

By Joshua Keating

Quote:

If I had to guess, the most likely scenario at this point seems to be Crimea settling into a state of frozen conflict along the lines of Transnistria in Moldova or Georgia’s breakaway regions—a de facto autonomous territory under the heavy influence of Moscow but still technically considered by Kiev and its Western allies to be part of Ukraine.

If this is the outcome that is realized, I have a feeling a lot of people will read it as evil genius Putin once again getting one over on the West. But gaining de facto control over yet another dysfunctional pseudostate, essentially ensuring long-term tension with Kiev in the process, certainly doesn’t seem as good an outcome as what Russia thought it was getting a month ago: a government of the whole of Ukraine tied economically and politically to Russia rather than Europe. This isn’t really a great outcome for anyone.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/28/gunmen_seize_strategic_locations_in_separatist_crimea_region_can_anyone.html

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@hawkeye10,

hawkeye10 wrote:

If putin did use military force in Ukraine what would the West do about it if they wanted to do something?

The West could welcome the remainder of Ukraine into NATO with open arms, then build a major airbase within spitting distance of Moscow.

hawkeye10 wrote:

and we need there to not be a china/japan war,

Our new weapons systems will do a reasonable job of ensuring that.

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