@engineer,
engineer wrote:roger wrote:And if you waited till you knew, would you then wait till they used it?
We've waited on South Africa, Israel, Pakistan, India and N. Korea. What's one more?
Israel, Pakistan, and India have the right to have nuclear weapons.
The entire world has cracked down on North Korea and given them harsh sanctions. The fact that the consequences for North Korea have been so negative has prevented the dissolution of the NPT and a global arms race. Despite that, a nuclear North Korea is still a major and undesirable problem.
If Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, they would become at least as big a problem as North Korea is, even if they get crushed by the same sort of global sanctions that are currently in place against North Korea.
It is plausible, though, that nations like Russia and China will prevent Iran from being crushed by brutal sanctions. In that case, the NPT will cease to exist and states around the world will freely develop nuclear weapons as they please.
The US will have to reverse our arms reductions and build our arsenal back up to Cold War levels in order to deter all the nations of the world simultaneously. A resumption of nuclear testing and the development of more-modern warhead designs will be in order too.
Also, many of our allies will need nuclear weapons of their own (which we will be happy to help them with, considering the state of the world at that point). In particular, we'd likely provide thermonuclear warhead designs to Israel, Poland, Georgia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines.
It will just be a matter of time before someone has a nuclear war somewhere. My guess is that the first large-scale nuclear war in human history will occur between two relatively minor African nations (I don't have any particular candidates in mind).
Barack Obama intends to prevent this from coming to pass.
In addition, Obama gave Israel his assurance that if they held off on bombing Iran themselves, he'd do it himself when the time comes.
It'll soon be time.