How is this definition of "belief"?

@Fil Albuquerque,

Honnêtement, je voudrais bien voir ce qu'il a dans le ventre, ce gaillard de Set... >:->

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@Olivier5,

Olivier5 wrote:

Quote:
Frank gives us something to shoot at, I like you being stubborn !

I want to ask something to FRANK:

Assuming you have children (or nephews), when they were small, did you tell them that Santa was dropping gifts or did you tell them the truth e.g. that YOU bought that stupid toy?

And if you "enforced" the Santa conspiracy, why?

Before I get called a humourless French once again, like on the "Jesus" thread -- gee A2Knowers are a tough crowd! --, let me rush to underline this is a slightly mischevious and not entirely serious question...

I have no children of my own, Olivier...or at least, I have no children of my own that I know about. (I was not especially careful during my promiscuous years.)

I have nephews and nieces. I do not remember engaging in the Santa, Easter Bunny, or Tooth Fairy thing with any of them.

If I ever thought such beings existed, it was at a time I cannot bring to memory.

I have no problem with the Santa, Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy things…they seem fairly innocuous to me.

I think most adults feel the same…although I’ve known some who get all puffed up and say they would never stoop to participate in that kind of thing.

Fun is fun. Some people simply do not know how to have fun…or to really enjoy life as much as is possible.

Please feel free to ask any follow-up questions that come to mind.

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@Frank Apisa,

Frank Apisa wrote:

I am sure you understand the problem with this, Cyracuz...which is that our senses can fool us.

Just curious. In what way do you mean that our senses can fool us?

Quote:

REALITY may be simply to understand...it may be what many of us suppose it is.

The problem is that it may be completely different from what many of us suppose it to be.

We do not know.

We can make guesses...and try to sustain those guesses.

In my opinion, there is value in calling those guesses, guesses...rather than beliefs.

Yes, it seems that there are informed guesses and wild/blind guesses (and maybe others). Induction, imperfect as it is, is informed guessing. Mythology is wild/blind guessing, as far as I can tell.

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@FBM,

Quote:

Yes, it seems that there are informed guesses and wild/blind guesses (and maybe others). Induction, imperfect as it is, is informed guessing. Mythology is wild/blind guessing, as far as I can tell.

Not that I don't agree with this remark but playing Devil's advocate don't you find it funny the expression "informed guessing" ?...I think is a ton of fun...

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@Frank Apisa,

Quote:

I have no children of my own, Olivier...or at least, I have no children of my own that I know about. [...] I have no problem with the Santa, Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy things…they seem fairly innocuous to me. I think most adults feel the same…although I’ve known some who get all puffed up and say they would never stoop to participate in that kind of thing.

Oh, they'd probably do it too, almost everybody does... Because it's funny, because it's genuinly beautiful, and later when they're 4-5 because it gives parents a handle on them kids, a motivator to be good and play nice, valid for half the year or something.

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@Fil Albuquerque,

I'm not sure exactly what you mean. I'm peripherally aware that Frank has been challenged on what he's said about guessing, but I haven't been following the details.

To "make an informed guess" is a common enough expression among native speakers of English. What's funny about it?

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@FBM,

FBM wrote:

Frank Apisa wrote:

I am sure you understand the problem with this, Cyracuz...which is that our senses can fool us.

Just curious. In what way do you mean that our senses can fool us?

Do the sun and moon actually cross our sky?

Does the siren of a passing ambulance actually change pitch?

Quote:

Quote:
REALITY may be simply to understand...it may be what many of us suppose it is.

The problem is that it may be completely different from what many of us suppose it to be.

We do not know.

We can make guesses...and try to sustain those guesses.

In my opinion, there is value in calling those guesses, guesses...rather than beliefs.

Yes, it seems that there are informed guesses and wild/blind guesses (and maybe others). Induction, imperfect as it is, is informed guessing. Mythology is wild/blind guessing, as far as I can tell.

Give me an example of an informed guess...and let's discuss how it is different from an estimate.

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Informed guessing . . . this is just getting more and more hilarious. It's as though the word belief had an unsavory social reputation, and no one wants to be seen with it.

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@FBM,

I don't know how to put it to you, it comes to mind you are perhaps in need of getting a "blind insight" on the matter... Wink

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@Frank Apisa,

Frank Apisa wrote:

Do the sun and moon actually cross our sky?

Does the siren of a passing ambulance actually change pitch?

Quote:

Just to clarify: I'm not challenging you. I agree with you. I'm just wondering how you arrived at your position.

Quote:
Give me an example of an informed guess...and let's discuss how it is different from an estimate.

Anything arrived at by induction, I suppose, or unnecessary inference. I don't think that there is a significant difference between an informed guess and an estimate. There are other terms or phrases we could also apply. I like "working hypothesis." Somebody else may prefer "rule of thumb." But it doesn't bother me if others choose different words. I think we're both buzzing around the same flower.

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@Fil Albuquerque,

Fil Albuquerque wrote:

I don't know how to put it to you, it comes to mind you are perhaps in need of getting a "blind insight" on the matter...

"Blind insight" seems like an oxymoron. Would you mind explaining what you mean? I'm not skilled at cryptography. Smile

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@FBM,

As a last resort check guessing and check informed in the dictionary...what can I say, there's nothing more to it then that...Sushi with Beef have a better chance of getting mingled together ! Laughing

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@Fil Albuquerque,

I'm not sure I'm following your intended message perfectly, so please forgive me if I'm off-target. The distinction I intended was between making up an answer without any information at all (blind guess), such as primitives saying that natural phenomena are controlled by unseen entities, and relatively informed guesses, such as when 50 experiments produce the same results. In the latter case, there is a great deal more information, so it is called "informed" rather than "blind." However, due to the problem of induction, any conclusion based on the results of those 50 experiments can only (with intellectual honesty) be held tentatively.

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@Frank Apisa,

Quote:

Give me an example of an informed guess...and let's discuss how it is different from an estimate.

And most importantly, how it differs from a 'guesstimate'...

Semantic, Rhetoric and Bickeric are the three muses of A2K.

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@FBM,

I think we all are aware of what the expression means in its daily common sense use but then that was not the point of my comment was it...

When you go from an explanatory system onto another with more resolution, and another, and so forth, you only get to be informed if you get to the source, not half ways...so without that final last step you' re guessing anyway, in truth you are not a jot more informed then you were in the beginning, you have noise not information..."guessing" and "informed" don't really mingle well together !

Of course this is a trivial assessment, and I thought there was no need to explain it...it seams I was wrong.

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I strongly prefer "speculation" to "guesswork." The latter is more blind than is the former. We usually have some basis in experience for those daily working hypotheses, I call speculations. Guesses are almost by definition with little or no basis.

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Was it FBM who suggested that "Mythology is wild/blind guessing" ? It seems to me that "mythology" as used by folklorists and anthropologists consists of deliberate and carefully constructed stories. Consider the Old Testament as an example (and then all the sacred tales discussed by people like Joseph Campbell).

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@Fil Albuquerque,

Quote:

don't you find it funny the expression "informed guessing" ?...I think is a ton of fun...

How so? We make guesses based on information all the time.
In horse racing for instance... Say there's two people betting on the races. One has no knowledge of the horses that will be racing, and just picks his bets without any specific reasons.
The other has followed each horse in the race. He is aware of their history, track record and any important events in their past. He has even poked around in the stables a bit, getting a sense of the individual moods of the horses that day.
He has a lot of information on which to make his assertions, and can perhaps make more successful guesses than the man with less information.

We can't say the first man has no information. He has the names of the horses, so his guess isn't blind. He's not going to bet on a horse that's not in the race, for instance.

The way I think of it, a guess is always informed, though in varying degrees. Beliefs are different. We can bet on God, but we have no indication that he's even in the race...

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@Cyracuz,

Another thing that is different about guesses and beliefs is that you make guesses. Beliefs can sneak up on you, and you can find yourself with a belief you didn't consciously embrace. People do it all the time. Except Frank, of course.

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@JLNobody,

Quote:

It seems to me that "mythology" as used by folklorists and anthropologists consists of deliberate and carefully constructed stories. Consider the Old Testament as an example (and then all the sacred tales discussed by people like Joseph Campbell).

Ancient myths are indeed complex, structured, symbolic, and often very beautiful too. Maybe that's why they grip the mind. Modern mythologies re. socialism, democracy or the invisible hand of markets are no less gripping but tend to be expressed with less poetry...

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How is this definition of "belief"?

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