Fiscal Cliff

@JPB,

Quote:

They don't need to control 217 votes. They only need to control 25 - the number of no votes that brings an R-only bill down

you are very confused, the non tea partiers are aligned with the Senate R's and will go for this deal. the tea party R's cant stop it. Boehner will get enough R's to pass this and move on to the next battle, the tea party can neither prevent this vote nor depose Boehner for defying them, they are all bark and no bite. the only problem at the moment is Boehner lacking the balls to tell them to **** off.

edit: perhaps Cantor is making a move on Boehner, knowing that this will get passed and then he will use this bill to try to take Boehners job, I simply think that he will fail and that even if Boehner thinks it might work he will still do the right thing and get this done as his last act as Speaker.

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@hawkeye10,

I don't think they can either, but I think they're doing their damned trying. I'm not confused in the least. I said days ago that Beohner was going to have to choose between two problems. His tea party faction or following the Hastert Rule. He doesn't have 200 R votes for an unamended Senate bill. He probably only has 75-100 and will need D votes to pass it. Some reports are that he only has 25-50.

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@JakeSherman Breaking: house will whip spending cut amendment. If it gets 218, they'll move it. If not, up and down on senate pasted bill.

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@JPB,

Quote:

He doesn't have 200 R votes for an unamended Senate bill.

he does not need anywhere near that many....100 would be plenty because he will get a lot of D's.

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They're going to see if they can get 218 on a spending amendment (see above).

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@JPB,

JPB wrote:

@JakeSherman Breaking: house will whip spending cut amendment. If it gets 218, they'll move it. If not, up and down on senate pasted bill.

the amendment will fail and the bill will pass.....easy peasy

now the speaker will point out that he gave the tea party objectors a chance to get the votes they need to get their way, and Cantor I think will be a good boy when nominations are made for Speaker.

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@hawkeye10,

Probably

@dnewhauser Rep John Fleming (La) said sentiment in GOP mtg now is to pass senate bill as is, maybe with mostly Dem votes. Realize they're beat

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@JPB,

JPB wrote:

Probably

@dnewhauser Rep John Fleming (La) said sentiment in GOP mtg now is to pass senate bill as is, maybe with mostly Dem votes. Realize they're beat

and martyrs they will be till the end (making sure that the bill gets just enough R votes to pass natch!)

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@hawkeye10,

which means he's choosing to violate the Hastert Rule which requires a majority of the majority for any bill brought up for a vote. He can't have it both ways. He might end up bailing on both of his problems and going with a minority of his caucus on the unamended bill. I expect you'll see at least 118 Rs if it they go with the Senate bill.

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@JPB,

JPB wrote:

which means he's choosing to violate the Hastert Rule which requires a majority of the majority for any bill brought up for a vote. He can't have it both ways. He might end up bailing on both of his problems and going with a minority of his caucus on the unamended bill. I expect you'll see at least 118 Rs if it they go with the Senate bill.

this is not a law. Duty to county before House, and House before caucus....this is not that hard to navigate.

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This one's for spendi.

@StevenTDennis MT @RapperRC: & @RollCall! MT @jwarminsky: Real goal of #fiscalcliff is to create a 24/7/365 news cycle for Congress. rollcall.com

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Straight up-or-down vote tonight on the Senate bill. Vote expected around 9:30 EST.

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@JPB,

JPB wrote:

Straight up-or-down vote tonight on the Senate bill. Vote expected around 9:30 EST.

how about a poll on how many votes this thing passes by??

I take 8

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@hawkeye10,

The over-under on Rs voting yes is 85.

Pelosi probably has 175 +/-

Due to open seats the number of votes needed is 217 if all members vote.

I'll take 40 as the margin.

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My favorite tweet of the night so far...

@brianbeutler Recalling the time I repeatedly asked Grover whether a vote like tonight's would be a tax cut or increase and he insisted it'd never happen.

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Just a procedural vote to bring the Senate resolution to the floor...right now. Final vote will not be until almost midnight.

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@Frank Apisa,

Saw Norquist speaking with Wolf Blitzer.

My opinion of Norquist has never been particularly high...in fact, I doubted it could fall any lower.

I was wrong. It did.

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@JPB,

Quote:

What remains undecided is how many House Republicans and Democrats would be needed should a vote on the Senate bill would come to a vote, either on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. As the measure stands now, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi would push Democrats to hold their noses and back the bill, which is not enthusiastically supported in her caucus. There could be around 150 Democratic votes in favor, meaning fewer than 70 Republicans would have to sign on

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/01/fiscal-cliff-vote_n_2393543.html

40 over seems like a lot....we will see. this above quote would have the margin be 15 if 85 R's go yes

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@Frank Apisa,

I'm sure I'm glad I didn't see it. He generally turns my stomach.

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@JPB,

He looks like Central Casting's idea of a sleezebag politician. In fact, he could probably make that kind of character role a new facet in his life.

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