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Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby...The 2012 Hurricane Season.

 
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Jun, 2012 08:02 am
@Ragman,
The models are still all over the place.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2012/jun24_models.gif

The five day forecast shows a more northerly track than yesterday.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201204_5day.gif
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Jun, 2012 08:40 am
It's spending too much time in the water. I hope it moves soon.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Jun, 2012 10:23 am
@JPB,
Yikes! The 11 am update shows a much more northerly track over LA. My Thursday am flight isn't looking too good right now.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Jun, 2012 10:31 am
Good luck with that.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Jun, 2012 03:21 pm
The 5:00 pm maps show it headed up towards the panhandle. Quite a difference in the past few hours.

Stay safe everyone!
ehBeth
 
  3  
Reply Sun 24 Jun, 2012 03:34 pm
@JPB,
Anthony's photos sure put a real-life perspective on those maps

http://able2know.org/topic/603-168#post-5023590
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 30 Jul, 2012 10:58 am
This one may be worth watching as it develops.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201299_model.gif
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201299_model_intensity.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Jul, 2012 10:25 am
The intensity models are indicating TS development within the next 72 hours.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Aug, 2012 06:30 pm
Stay tuned...

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201205_5day.gif
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201205_model_intensity.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 3 Aug, 2012 12:46 pm
Ernesto (graphs above) is expected to reach hurricane strength by Monday and move into the GOM. There are two other active storms that look to develop and bear watching.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201291_model.gif
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201291_model_intensity.gif

and

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201290_model.gif
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201290_model_intensity.gif
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 20 Aug, 2012 06:15 pm
I see that there is a new storm for us to watch carefully.
It is of particular concern to me because a recent employee of mine called Saturday from the Miami airport prior to heading to Haiti. He started going there before the earthquake working on the notion of urban design in developing countries. Smart kid.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 21 Aug, 2012 06:25 am
@realjohnboy,
Here you go, rjb. It's a few days out yet but looks to become a significant storm.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_5day.gif
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Aug, 2012 04:17 pm
@JPB,
Issac appears to have barely clipped Cuba. Good for them but bad for FL as he may gain strength over open water. The Keys will probably get full impact along with the gulf coast. Oil rigs to the west are shutting down.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Aug, 2012 09:24 am
@JPB,
Not liking this one little bit! Stay safe, missy and anyone else in the GOM area.
Ragman
 
  2  
Reply Sun 26 Aug, 2012 10:50 am
@JPB,
Stacking up cases of water and copious supplies of beer.

Here in Sarasota (3 miles from the Gulf), though cloudy and a little breezy, it's not too ugly here yet. I think we're an hour or away from the real rain starting. Midnight they predict it'll get ugly 40 mph steady with gusts to 50 mph. The heart of the central part of the tropical storm is predicted to be more than 150-200 miles to sea. The bad part is that it's intense effects are 200 miles wide.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Aug, 2012 11:14 am
@Ragman,
Always seems to hit in the middle of the night, doesn't it? The 8:00am tracking maps showed a 1:00am landfall near the AL/MS border. The newer one shows a westward drift towards MS/LA and a daytime Cat 2 landfall.
Ragman
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Aug, 2012 11:20 am
@JPB,
It seems so, yeah. The phase of the moon is 75-86% illuminated now. That'll affect the storm surge big time.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Sun 26 Aug, 2012 02:39 pm
I hope everybody in the path is fully prepared. Good luck.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Aug, 2012 04:33 pm
@edgarblythe,
adding my wishes and hopes to edgar's.

This would not be good...

Quote:
Comparing Isaac with Ike of 2008
The current situation with Isaac is similar in some ways to that of Hurricane Ike of 2008. Ike spent considerable time over Cuba, weakening from a Category 4 to a Category 1 storm. The storm couldn't put its energy into building a strong inner core, but it was able to build up its outer rainbands that were over very warm waters. This resulted in a major expansion of its wind field, with tropical storm-force winds extending out 275 miles from the center at one point. Ike was able to intensify into a Category 2 storm on its path towards Texas, and had an unusually low pressure for a Cat 2 storm with 100 mph winds--944 mb. That's a central pressure more typical of a Category 3 storm, but Ike could only manage Category 2 winds, since it had such a large chunk of the atmosphere to keep spinning. With Isaac's TS winds already extending out to 205 miles, maybe we'll see another Ike-type situation as it intensifies--the storm will have an unusually low pressure in order to keep a huge wind field spinning, but never make it above Category 2, since it will take so long to spin up such a large wind field.

Storm surge forecast for Isaac
Isaac is a very large storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out 205 miles from the center. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina at landfall had tropical storm-force winds that extended out 230 miles from its center. Isaac's large size will enable it to set a large area of the ocean into motion, which will generate a large storm surge once the storm approaches land on the Gulf Coast. The latest 3:30 am EDT Integrated Kinetic Energy analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Isaac's winds near 0 on a scale of 1 to 6, but the destructive potential of Isaacs's storm surge was 2.1 on a scale of 1 to 6. A 2008 paper by Irish et al., The influence of storm size on hurricane surge, found that large storms like Isaac are capable to delivering a 30% larger storm surge to the coast than a smaller storm with the same maximum wind speeds. The angle with which the storm hit the coast is important, too--a storm moving due north or slightly east of north will deliver a storm surge about 10% greater than a storm moving NNW or NW. Consult our Storm Surge pages for detailed information on what the risk is for the coast. I expect that Isaac's storm surge will be about 30% higher than the typical surge one would expect based on the maximum wind speeds. Jeff Masters, Weather Underground 8/26/2012
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Aug, 2012 09:54 pm
@JPB,
Gonna add the pink spaghetti map as well. Some of the models show a TX/LA landfall whereas the cone is mostly centered over LA/MS
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_5day.gif
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_ensmodel.gif
 

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