Tick, tick. August 2nd is the Debt Limit Armageddon. Or Not.

@JPB,

They're not fools - they want to get re-elected. The only bus in this discussion is the bus under which taxpayers will be thrown if Obama et al get their wish and a new vote in Congress on raising the debt ceiling is postponed beyond 2012; Obama will give up anything for that one point. Beneath contempt.....

Quote:

"To let oneself slide down the easy slope offered by the course of events and to dull one's mind against the extent of the danger, . . . that is precisely to fail in one's obligation of responsibility."

Just men regard repudiation and spoliation of citizens by their sovereign with abhorrence; but we are asked to affirm that the Constitution has granted power to accomplish both. No definite delegation of such a power exists, and we cannot believe the far-seeing framers, who labored with hope of establishing justice and securing the blessings of liberty, intended that the expected government should have authority to annihilate its own obligations and destroy the very rights which they were endeavoring to protect. Not only is there no permission for such actions, they are inhibited. And no plenitude of words can conform them to our charter.

This entire charade is disgraceful for anyone able to look up the Treasury numbers, or even the constitutional issues in the Perry v US dissent (above). http://supreme.justia.com/us/294/330/case.html
There is no debt ceiling, there is no August 2nd deadline, and I hope the House prevents the US taxpayers from getting thrown under Obama's bus.

1 Reply

@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

That's because "winning this argument" costs many people their savings, investments, jobs, and future increase in costs that are not necessary.

It's not about winning an argument; it's about discouraging blackmail.

cicerone imposter wrote:

We need to put a stop to this destruction, because we should know better.

Rewarding the Tea-Partiers for their blackmail is not going to stop their destructive behavior. It only sets the stage for the next crisis.

Actually, this is a major lesson I'm learning from this thread. Plenty of people, not just you, tell me to be realistic about this. And yet they practically ignore the reality of blackmail in this picture. You can't compromise with extortionists. You can't deal with them as if they were good-faith negotiators. To do that is inherently unrealistic, and the consequences of denying this reality will be dire.

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@High Seas,

Ah! Dueling bus theories!!! Wonderful! It gives us both something to watch while the sands flow through the hourglass.

I agree with you regarding the regular pols looking towards the next election. I disagree that it's the primary objective in all cases. In my script, we don't really get to see the effect of the bus on the TPers until Nov '12. An early sign will be to see if the Republican party primaries the holdouts.

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@JPB,

JPB wrote:

...I agree with you regarding the regular pols looking towards the next election. I disagree that it's the primary objective in all cases. In my script, we don't really get to see the effect of the bus on the TPers until Nov '12. An early sign will be to see if the Republican party primaries the holdouts.

I never said ... " it's the primary objective in all cases." I believe the House Republican majority will refuse any deal dragging debt negotiations beyond 2012 - they are (I think) people of principle and will risk their own reelection chances in order to avert the national bankruptcy to which Obama's debt is leading.

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@High Seas,

There are only seven (I believe) characters in my play. Those who spent a weekend behind closed doors writing the script.

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@JPB,

Whatever happened to character # 8, the financial economist? Hope this runaway bus (metaphor alert!) doesn't end up with a dialogue along the lines:
"...and other than that, Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?"

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@JPB,

JPB wrote:

An early sign will be to see if the Republican party primaries the holdouts.

I think I understand what you are suggesting, Jaye, but could you rewrite that thought? Thank you. -J

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@High Seas,

Like I said yesterday... I can stay emotional and agitated to the point that my bp skyrockets and it effects my personal well-being or I can put my faith in seven people who generally don't get along very well to come up with a plan that a) decouples the debt ceiling increase from the deficit reduction plan, b) results in a bi-partisan outcome such as G6 and, c) puts the TPers on record for preferring to destroy the credit worthiness of our nation (fanaticism) rather than agree to a plan that could effect the changes they want effected without a BBA.

Other than being agitated or faithful, at this point I can only watch and observe.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

JPB wrote:

An early sign will be to see if the Republican party primaries the holdouts.

I think I understand what you are suggesting, Jaye, but could you rewrite that thought? Thank you. -J

It's too soon to know what next week will bring, but if there are 25, or so, Republican individuals who hold out long enough that the one-pager becomes NECESSARY then it's the Republican party (John Boehner) that is going to have to initiate that document. Those holdouts become the focus of every election campaign in 2012. They give the Dems fodder at every turn. The only way that the Republican party can take equal footing in 2012 is to run mainstream Republicans against the holdouts at the primary level. Their focus is to maintain a Republican majority in the House and hope to gain control of the Senate. Look at the polls! If the TP incumbants are successful is ruining the credit worthiness of the United States do you think there's a chance in hell that they'll keep their majority in the House next time?

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@Thomas,

Brad DeLong and Matthew Iglesias perfectly encapsulate my views of Obama's negotiaton failure.

Brad DeLong wrote:

The first rule of any negotiation in which you don't want to be taken to the cleaners is to say three things:

1. We are going to be dealing with each other for quite a while; it would be very nice if our interactions are win-win, because if they start out win-lose then they tend to degenerate to lose-lose very quickly.
2. I would really like a deal on this issue.
3. I don't have to have a deal on this issue--I could do X, and while X is not as good as a deal it is better for me than simply me letting you take me to the cleaners.

The entire blog post is well worth reading.

The Obama administration failed on point 3, so now the Republicans are taking him to the cleaners.

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@JPB,

JPB wrote:

Like I said yesterday... I can stay emotional and agitated to the point that my bp skyrockets and it effects my personal well-being or I can put my faith in seven people who generally don't get along very well to come up with a plan that a) decouples the debt ceiling increase from the deficit reduction plan, b) results in a bi-partisan outcome such as G6 and, c) puts the TPers on record for preferring to destroy the credit worthiness of our nation (fanaticism) rather than agree to a plan that could effect the changes they want effected without a BBA.

Other than being agitated or faithful, at this point I can only watch and observe.

But - of course not risking your health - can't you also act? It's no secret I'm advising one of the Republican presidential candidates - not on legal or political matters, only on economics/finance issues - and yes, I'm doing this for public duty. Obama only has political advisers - all of them, including the head of his "economic advisers", who's really a lawyer - and they're completely ignoring the debt numbers involved. It will doom them at some point - I hope soon Smile

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@High Seas,

that's just scary as hell.

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@Thomas,

Brad deLong is always worth reading - thank you: " ....But then an underpants gnome problem arose....." Beautifully phrased <G>

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@High Seas,

You are advising a certain Presidential candidate that defaulting on the US debt will have no consequences in the real world?

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@parados,

Have you ever looked up the meaning of "default"? It means not paying principal and interest on debt. It's not even a remote possibility for debt of the US.

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@High Seas,

Nope, sorry, I missed out on the acting gene. I tend to wear my life and thoughts on my sleeve and what you see is what you get. I make a great effort to look at both/all sides of an argument and find a center/neutral ground to come down on. I already told you that I was on board with the tea party concepts until they became fanatical. Tell your presidential candidate that this swing voter voted mostly Republican last time. That will most likely change in 2012 unless my two mostly moderate R's choose a middle ground.

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@High Seas,

What you graph fails to do is that the upward trend created by GW Bush is affecting what has happened when Obama took over. The basic debt and the interest cost for that debt did not disappear when Obama took office - it increased from the spending of Bush and Obama. GW Bush increased the debt by $4 to $5 trillion dollars; that spending was approved by congress when Bush was in office.

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@High Seas,

GW Bush ignored the debt numbers too! The current debt is the "accumulation" of all legislation - past and present. Do you know what a doubling of the debt during GW Bush's tenure does when he also gives tax cuts? Get Real!

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@Thomas,

The reason the tea partiers are taking Obama to the cleaners is based on their intractable position which is always "no." They are not politicians; they are terrorists who don't care about how much damage they do to the world economy to get their way. Terrorists don't negotiate, they demand.

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@parados,

Quote:

You are advising a certain Presidential candidate that defaulting on the US debt will have no consequences in the real world?

High Seas is probably advising another one of those Republican candidates who believes in witchcraft.

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Tick, tick. August 2nd is the Debt Limit Armageddon. Or Not.

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