26
   

Tick, tick. August 2nd is the Debt Limit Armageddon. Or Not.

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Jul, 2011 09:12 pm
@JPB,
JPB wrote:

No kidding.

One of the sticking points, apparently, was that the Pell grants were too generous. Another was the lack of a BBA.


It's amazing to see that, seeing as a BBA to begin with will never pass the Senate (as McCain pointed out yesterday), and more specifically, THEIR version of the BBA will never pass, as it contains a 2/3rds requirement to raise taxes from then on.

Cycloptichorn

cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Jul, 2011 09:34 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
The tea party members who are demanding a BBA were put into our government to do exactly what they are doing; destroy this country. At least it'll be a fast death.

More pain coming our way.

Quote:
U.S. index futures slide on cancelled House vote

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- U.S. index futures reversed their gains in screen trading during Asian hours Friday after the House Republican leadership cancelled plans to vote on Speaker John Boehner's plan to increase the debt ceiling and cut the deficit
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Jul, 2011 10:28 pm
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:

I'm not taking any lessons from a man with very dirty hands from imperialist adventuring.


You are evidently still smarting from some of my remarks about the hypocrisy of your earlier remarks, given the contradictory history of your country. You really don't know anything about me, or, very likely about the events of Vietnam or even the experience of combat.

Back in your hole.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Jul, 2011 10:34 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

The Dow fell .5% today while the broader indices were slightly in positive territory. For the last 5 trading days, the Dow is down 3.5% with losses every day. Tomorrow could be an interesting day after votes in Congress Thursday and/or Friday and then the weekend.
I have a modest portfolio in the market; nothing like CI's. I don't share his concern but I can certainly appreciate that there are analyses out there that support his investment strategy.


I think most predictions about the potential short term reactions of the stock and bond markets are, at best shots in the dark. The decrease we have seen this week is no greater than the decline (and reversal) we saw a few months ago, and what follows in the next few days isn't likely to be a lot greater ... in my view (but that too is a guess).

I am inclined to believe the long term effects are far more likely to be influenced by the degree to which we reduce government spending and limit the runaway overregulation of our financial and energy market sectors. In short I believe that raising the debt ceiling without any constructive action on those fronts is likely to be a good deal more negative than the current hype over the short term effects of the current impasse.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Jul, 2011 11:20 pm
@georgeob1,
Spending cuts can be negotiated after the debt ceiling is increased. What took decades cannot be cured in one week.

Holding Americans hostage (and the world economy) on something that is as routine as increasing the debt limit is stupid.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Jul, 2011 11:29 pm
Quote:
The biggest sticking point is whether the GOP can force Democrats to climb back into the ring for a rematch next year. And why wouldn’t Republicans want another fight? They won the last budget battle, which was over a possible government shutdown, and they must feel confident of winning the next one, too. Momentum is on their side, even though they control just one wing of the Capitol — and even though they advocate measures that most Americans reject.

Conservatives are on a winning streak because they have a Big Idea that serves as an animating, motivating, unifying force. It happens to be a very bad idea, but it’s better than nothing — which, sadly, is what progressives have.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-the-progressives-need-a-big-idea/2011/07/28/gIQAMrPtfI_story.html?hpid=z2

This is a point that has been made by many over the last 20 years, but the left in America refuses to face up to it. The Democrats have been out of ideas for a long time, and they dont seem too interested in finding any more.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Thu 28 Jul, 2011 11:39 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

Spending cuts can be negotiated after the debt ceiling is increased. What took decades cannot be cured in one week.

Holding Americans hostage (and the world economy) on something that is as routine as increasing the debt limit is stupid.

The inability of our political leadership to agree on urgently needed reductions in government spending, even in the face of rapidly increasing borrowing and rising deficits is likely to be the most negative influence in all of this - in its effects far eclipsing a temporary limit on borrowing.. If they can't agree on anything now, what makes you think they will be able to agree on anything constructive later on?
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 12:01 am
@georgeob1,
Because the American people have spoken; they want cuts in spending AND some increase in taxes.

This is about compromise and negotiation; not blackmail. If we don't like what our representatives are doing, replace them. As voters, we have that responsibility.
firefly
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 02:38 am
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
Spending cuts can be negotiated after the debt ceiling is increased. What took decades cannot be cured in one week.

I completely agree with you. Right now, the issue of the debt ceiling should be separated from further attempts to make major changes in future spending, because we are dealing with a very fragile economy that cannot withstand another major body blow such as a default, or even the flirting with disaster that is currently going on.

Quote:
Holding Americans hostage (and the world economy) on something that is as routine as increasing the debt limit is stupid.

It's not just stupid, it's reckless and irresponsible. And it is only the Republican party that is to blame for this lunacy--they are pushing the country to the brink of economic chaos.
Quote:
The New York Times
July 28, 2011
The Centrist Cop-Out
By PAUL KRUGMAN
The facts of the crisis over the debt ceiling aren’t complicated. Republicans have, in effect, taken America hostage, threatening to undermine the economy and disrupt the essential business of government unless they get policy concessions they would never have been able to enact through legislation. And Democrats — who would have been justified in rejecting this extortion altogether — have, in fact, gone a long way toward meeting those Republican demands.

As I said, it’s not complicated. Yet many people in the news media apparently can’t bring themselves to acknowledge this simple reality. News reports portray the parties as equally intransigent; pundits fantasize about some kind of “centrist” uprising, as if the problem was too much partisanship on both sides.

Some of us have long complained about the cult of “balance,” the insistence on portraying both parties as equally wrong and equally at fault on any issue, never mind the facts. I joked long ago that if one party declared that the earth was flat, the headlines would read “Views Differ on Shape of Planet.” But would that cult still rule in a situation as stark as the one we now face, in which one party is clearly engaged in blackmail and the other is dickering over the size of the ransom?

The answer, it turns out, is yes. And this is no laughing matter: The cult of balance has played an important role in bringing us to the edge of disaster. For when reporting on political disputes always implies that both sides are to blame, there is no penalty for extremism. Voters won’t punish you for outrageous behavior if all they ever hear is that both sides are at fault.

Let me give you an example of what I’m talking about. As you may know, President Obama initially tried to strike a “Grand Bargain” with Republicans over taxes and spending. To do so, he not only chose not to make an issue of G.O.P. extortion, he offered extraordinary concessions on Democratic priorities: an increase in the age of Medicare eligibility, sharp spending cuts and only small revenue increases. As The Times’s Nate Silver pointed out, Mr. Obama effectively staked out a position that was not only far to the right of the average voter’s preferences, it was if anything a bit to the right of the average Republican voter’s preferences.

But Republicans rejected the deal. So what was the headline on an Associated Press analysis of that breakdown in negotiations? “Obama, Republicans Trapped by Inflexible Rhetoric.” A Democratic president who bends over backward to accommodate the other side — or, if you prefer, who leans so far to the right that he’s in danger of falling over — is treated as being just the same as his utterly intransigent opponents. Balance!

Which brings me to those “centrist” fantasies.

Many pundits view taking a position in the middle of the political spectrum as a virtue in itself. I don’t. Wisdom doesn’t necessarily reside in the middle of the road, and I want leaders who do the right thing, not the centrist thing.

But for those who insist that the center is always the place to be, I have an important piece of information: We already have a centrist president. Indeed, Bruce Bartlett, who served as a policy analyst in the Reagan administration, argues that Mr. Obama is in practice a moderate conservative.

Mr. Bartlett has a point. The president, as we’ve seen, was willing, even eager, to strike a budget deal that strongly favored conservative priorities. His health reform was very similar to the reform Mitt Romney installed in Massachusetts. Romneycare, in turn, closely followed the outlines of a plan originally proposed by the right-wing Heritage Foundation. And returning tax rates on high-income Americans to their level during the Roaring Nineties is hardly a socialist proposal.

True, Republicans insist that Mr. Obama is a leftist seeking a government takeover of the economy, but they would, wouldn’t they? The facts, should anyone choose to report them, say otherwise.

So what’s with the buzz about a centrist uprising? As I see it, it’s coming from people who recognize the dysfunctional nature of modern American politics, but refuse, for whatever reason, to acknowledge the one-sided role of Republican extremists in making our system dysfunctional. And it’s not hard to guess at their motivation. After all, pointing out the obvious truth gets you labeled as a shrill partisan, not just from the right, but from the ranks of self-proclaimed centrists.

But making nebulous calls for centrism, like writing news reports that always place equal blame on both parties, is a big cop-out — a cop-out that only encourages more bad behavior. The problem with American politics right now is Republican extremism, and if you’re not willing to say that, you’re helping make that problem worse.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/29/opinion/krugman-the-centrist-cop-out.html?_r=1&hp



roger
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 03:17 am
@firefly,
firefly wrote:

Quote:
Spending cuts can be negotiated after the debt ceiling is increased. What took decades cannot be cured in one week.

I completely agree with you. Right now, the issue of the debt ceiling should be separated from further attempts to make major changes in future spending, because we are dealing with a very fragile economy that cannot withstand another major body blow such as a default, or even the flirting with disaster that is currently going on.



That sounds pretty good. My question is, if the debt ceiling were raised before August 2, would we ever see the spending cuts. Another question is whether or not we want a large enough increase in the ceiling to carry us through the end of next year. It is pretty obvious our president doesn't look forward to having this discussion again just months before he hopes to be re-elected. Also pretty obvious that the Republicans would be delighted to have exactly the opposite situation.
firefly
 
  2  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 05:51 am
@roger,
Quote:
My question is, if the debt ceiling were raised before August 2, would we ever see the spending cuts.

I think we would. Both political parties, and the voters, recognize that cuts must be made, and the president has clearly shown willingness to make those cuts, but, at the moment, partisan issues on the Republican side seem to be overriding concerns about both the immediate and long-term health of the economy. Re-balancing the government's long-standing cash flow problems requires considerably more deliberation and time than this frantic last minute scrambling to avoid a deadline can possibly permit.

Quote:
Another question is whether or not we want a large enough increase in the ceiling to carry us through the end of next year. It is pretty obvious our president doesn't look forward to having this discussion again just months before he hopes to be re-elected.

Part of the problem seems to be that legislators are more concerned with their own re-election chances than with the immediate economic well being of the country--and, in that regard, the Republicans are being held hostage by their own extremist elements. If the debt ceiling were raised to carry us through the end of next year, that whole issue becomes less tied to Obama's re-election. Too many of the extremist elements in the Republican party seem focused on bringing down Obama, right now, and I don't think they care if they bring down our faltering economy in the process.
We are trying to climb out of a very serious recession, and even the leading economists aren't sure of the best direction to take--strategies that worked in the past, or theoretically should be working now, just aren't doing that much or aren't resulting in the desired outcome. The long range changes in government spending, or in taxes, are changes that must be faced and made, but they must be made in a way that doesn't suck the air out of a struggling economy and create a host of additional problems in the process. Right now I don't see how that can be done given the intense partisan wrangling coming from the Republican side of the aisle, and within the Republican party itself, because that gamesmanship is obliterating a focus on the over-all health of the economy--both immediate and long-term--in favor of trying to achieve a short term political victory.

That the American public is very impatient about our sluggish economy shouldn't spook the lawmakers to such an extent that they make ill considered budget cuts in haste, which wind up throwing out the baby with the bathwater, just to try to secure their own re-election or Obama's defeat. Congress racked up these debts, and right now, they can't default on them--that's not an option. The endless debate has to stop and the Republicans have to allow the debt ceiling to be raised. If all else fails, I think Obama should try to use his Constitutional authority, under the 14th Amendment, to raise the debt ceiling on his own--something that Bill Clinton says could be done, but something that Obama says his legal advisors do not think is a viable option.

After the debt ceiling is raised, then the long range issue of reducing our debt can be addressed with the considered debate it deserves. These two issues are not connected, and a debt ceiling deadline should not recklessly be used as leverage to force budgetary cuts. Watching these Republican legislators flirt with the disaster of a default, and gamble with everyone's economic well being, can't be sitting too well with very many voters. If these people want to get re-elected, they should act like grown-ups. The government cannot be allowed to default.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 06:13 am
@firefly,
Quote:
If these people want to get re-elected, they should act like grown-ups.


I think a vast majority of both houses of congress realize that this situation transcends next year's elections. I'm not so sure that the ideologues who were part of the freshman class are at all concerned about being reelected. Many of them have never held public office before and I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that many of them are convinced with the fervor of an evangelical that they are "RIGHT" in holding out and that they were elected to do precisely what they are doing. Being reelected will come only if they are successful in their efforts. Or, so the thinking goes.

The only public opinion that matters in regards to these particular members is the opinion of those who voted for them. Those same people will have the opportunity to speak again at the polls next November. The rest of us can wag our tails and bark like dogs all we want, but we are irrelevant other than how we can influence our own representatives to try to dilute the extremism. I wonder how these TP ideologues are doing in the polls among their own constituency? If the people who elected them are cheering them on then the rest of us just have to suck it up and accept that we are a divided and dysfunctional government. As always, we've gotten the government we deserve.

JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 06:38 am
@roger,
roger wrote:

That sounds pretty good. My question is, if the debt ceiling were raised before August 2, would we ever see the spending cuts. Another question is whether or not we want a large enough increase in the ceiling to carry us through the end of next year. It is pretty obvious our president doesn't look forward to having this discussion again just months before he hopes to be re-elected. Also pretty obvious that the Republicans would be delighted to have exactly the opposite situation.


I think the answer to the first question is "probably not" but the time to get real and work with the system rather than against it has passed. The answer to the second question is an unqualified "YES!!!" It's not at all obvious to me that the Republicans would be delighted to have a two-tiered increase. As I've said before, the president isn't the only one who is facing reelection next year. The entire house and 1/3 of the senate will all have to put themselves in front of their constituents and explain why they want to take us to a second brink so soon if they pass a two-tiered plan.

Here's an email response that I got from my Rep Senator (not the House member that I've been lambasting daily):

Quote:
Dear Mrs. B:

Thank you for contacting me regarding the ongoing debt limit negotiations.

I oppose defaulting on any debt and will fight to protect the AAA credit rating of the United States. To protect our economy, we should cut spending and raise the debt limit, putting our nation on a sustainable financial foundation.

Until we enact a final bill, I am also working to ensure the federal government pays all interest owed, Social Security, Medicare and salaries for the troops.

Regarding a final bill, I support the "Gang of Six" bipartisan plan put forward by three Republican and three Democratic senators to reduce our borrowing by over $3.7 trillion over the next ten years.... (goes on to explain G6 plan)

In return for cutting over $3.7 trillion from projected borrowing, we should raise the debt limit of the United States....


I read "fighting to protect the AAA credit rating" as a single debt ceiling increase that gets us to 2013. I'll be shocked if we end up with a two-tiered plan in the end.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  2  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 07:17 am
@roger,
roger wrote:
My question is, if the debt ceiling were raised before August 2, would we ever see the spending cuts.

I don't see why not. The turnaround from Reagan's deficits to the late-Clinton budget surplus came about through responsible initiatives by both Bush Sr and Clinton. It didn't involve any hostage-taking. Therefore I don't see why the Republican's current hostage-taking was necessary to accomplish anything good.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 07:36 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:
I'd like to see your "as obstructive" between Clinton and Obama?

I am too lazy to Google up the relevant links, but off the top of my head, here's a list of Republican tactics against Clinton that I consider to be purely obstructionist, serving no useful purpose.
  • The scare tactics over Clinton's health care reform, including the Harry and Louise videos.
  • Framing the Clintons with multiple crimes, up to and including murder. (Nothing ever held water legally, but it was useful agitprop.)
  • Kenneth Starr's attempt to impeach Clinton for lying about a trivial sex scandal
You cannot put a hard metric on obstructionism. Therefore, I can't give you a number proving that Republicans were as obstructive under Clinton as they are under Obama. But I think they were. In my opinion, the root problem is that this generation of Republican politicians has a hard core of ideological fanatics. And this hard core considers government by non-Republicans to be intrinsically illegitimate, whether they be White or Black.
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 07:46 am
@Thomas,
Some may be surprised, most won't care, but I agree with you Thomas concerning the hard core republican tactics going back to the Clinton years.

However, they were not able to use racist tactics against Clinton and they do with Obama (some obvious some not so obvious) to appeal to the racist voters and I think that's where the difference lies.

Not that I think any of that has any bearing (either direct or indirect) on the issue at hand.


wandeljw
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 07:50 am
Tea Party Republicans seem to think they have a mandate outside the mainstream Republican Party. Yet, if they had run as Tea Party candidates rather than Republican candidates, they never would have won office in the first place.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  2  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 07:57 am
Quote:
David Stockman, a Republican, served as a U.S. representative from Michigan and as the director of the Office of Management and Budget from 1981 to 1985.

The crisis lies in the debt, not the ceiling. Kicking the can with a six months' ceiling increase is the worst possible alternative because it allows the politicians of both parties to continue making the Big Fiscal Lie. The Republican "no tax increase" position is preposterous; we are collecting less than 15% of GDP in taxes, the lowest since 1950, and spending 24% of GDP.

More than half of that is national security and Social Security, and the Republicans don't have a plan to cut a dime from either. Likewise, the Democrats are lying when they say Social Security is not part of the fiscal problem.

Benefits will exceed payroll taxes by $50 billion this year alone, and the red ink only gets deeper with time. Social Security should be subject to a stringent means test on the top 15 million affluent retirees, so that there is something left for the 40 million lower-income elderly who are already on the ragged edge.

Finally, the $800 billion defense and security budget is a relic of the Cold War, which ended 20 years ago, and should be cut by $200 billion. We no longer have any industrial state enemies and we have been fired as the world policeman -- so it is time to mothball some carrier battle groups, ground some air wings, drastically reduce our troop strength, end the futility of Afghanistan and stop buying multibillion high-tech weapons that we can't afford and don't need.

In the meanwhile, both the Boehner plan and the Reid plan are just big numbers flimflam. Their 10-year discretionary caps can't be enforced and the debt crisis is right now. In the next two years, where it really counts, each would save only $60 billion, or 1%, of the baseline spending of $7.5 trillion. That's a pathetic joke.

We are borrowing $6 billion per day with no end in sight, and rolling the dice in the hope that apparently clueless bond fund managers will continue to buy the debt of a quasi-bankrupt country. One day soon, they won't. But then it will be too late.


more at the source

Normally I am against any talk of reforming social security because it always seems to involve talks of privatizing it or cutting benefits across the board. However, the suggestion by that former congressmen (he is a republican) of having a stringent means test seems like a very good idea to me.

On the debt ceiling, I think in the end Obama is going to have to use the fourth amendment option.

JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 08:01 am
@revelette,
I agree with him, too, revelette.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  2  
Reply Fri 29 Jul, 2011 08:05 am
Meanwhile, I have written hold-your-dominion emails to my Representative and my two Senators, all of them Democrats. As an old engineering mantra has it, "if it's not worth doing, it's not worth doing well". And compromising with extortionists is not worth doing.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

Obama '08? - Discussion by sozobe
Let's get rid of the Electoral College - Discussion by Robert Gentel
McCain's VP: - Discussion by Cycloptichorn
Food Stamp Turkeys - Discussion by H2O MAN
The 2008 Democrat Convention - Discussion by Lash
McCain is blowing his election chances. - Discussion by McGentrix
Snowdon is a dummy - Discussion by cicerone imposter
TEA PARTY TO AMERICA: NOW WHAT?! - Discussion by farmerman
 
Copyright © 2024 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.18 seconds on 12/23/2024 at 02:23:24