The Fantasy Fantasy A2K NFL Pick-Um Thread for 2011-2012

The Life of Riley

Ah, yes. The reruns were there when I was a kid, but I don't recall ever watching them. Watched a ton of Leave it to Beaver and My Three Sons, though.

I have Fbaezer (Mexico), EhBeth (Canada) and Johnboy (U.S.) at 13-2 going into tonight's game. All 3 choose the Saints by final scores of 27-24, 27-14 and 32-22 respectively. AndyClubber is 12-3 and is picking the Giants (35-21).
So we will end up in either a 3 or 4 way tie.

Neither here nor there but of interest for me, sort of tying in this thread with some of my life in the early sixties - the main writer of My Three Sons and big participant in Leave It To Beaver writing - was a pal's dad. Neat family.

Week #13 - Sixteen Games Beginning Thursday Night, December 1st:
Thursday night-
Philadelphia @ Seattle
Sunday, early-
NY Jets @ Washington
Kansas City @ Chicago
Tennessee @ Buffalo
Oakland @ Miami
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Atlanta @ Houston
Denver @ Minnesota
Carolina @ Tampa Bay
Indianapolis @ New England
Sunday, late-
Baltimore @ Cleveland
Green Bay @ NY Giants
Dallas @ Arizona
St Louis @ San Francisco
Sunday night-
Detroit @ New Orleans
Monday night-
San Diego @ Jacksonville (+ final score)

Week #13 -
Philadelphia @ Seattle PHILLY
NY Jets @ Washington NYJ
Kansas City @ Chicago CHI
Tennessee @ Buffalo TN
Oakland @ Miami OAK
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh CINCY
Atlanta @ Houston ATL
Denver @ Minnesota MINN
Carolina @ Tampa Bay CAR
Indianapolis @ New England NE
Baltimore @ Cleveland BALT
Green Bay @ NY Giants GB
Dallas @ Arizona AZ
St Louis @ San Francisco SF
Detroit @ New Orleans NO
San Diego @ Jacksonville JVILLE, 17 - 7 Thank you.

21-3 New Orleans at halftime. This could bode well for Johnboy.

Okay folks, I got an email from CT to report the coin toss: 10H and 6T or
h, h, h, t, h, t, t, t, h, t, h, h, t, h, h, h

According to statistical sampling where a coin is tossed once, the likelihood of it tossing one coin is 50/50 between a H and T. As the number of tosses increases, the probability becomes more complex with all the possibilities between H's and T's, and the probability of all tosses coming out 50%H and 50%T becomes less probable and ratios between the two only increases. It's also the same with 100% of tosses coming out H's or T's as the number of tosses are increased.

I studied statistics in college, but the principles of statistics have been all but forgotten.

from NFL.com

Thursday night-
Philadelphia
Sunday, early-
NY Jets
Chicago
Tennessee
Miami
Pittsburgh
Atlanta
Denver
Tampa Bay
New England
Sunday, late-
Baltimore
Green Bay
Dallas
San Francisco
Sunday night-
New Orleans
Monday night-
Jacksonville (532-7)

There's a difference between a lot of tosses coming out exactly 50/50 and them coming out in a range from 45/55 and 55/45. With nearly 300 games to toss on C/T should be bottom of the Pick-Um table unless Jes is deliberately trying to take home the wooden spoon.

If C/T ends the season outside the range .450 to .550 I assume some bias has crept in or that rjb has a magical coin in which case he should be down at the racetrack filling his boots.

spendi, Whether the final outcome is .45 or .54 is not impossible. so your conclusion that there's bias is unfounded.

In my case, I just don't give a damn. I find it amusing that anyone cares, let alone fights (egad!) about such stuff.

'Course I'm also a mean girl.

All females who find men fighting amusing are mean.

charming, as ever, analysis

but missing the point that there is not one coin and not one coin-tosser - 300 coin tosses over more than a dozen coin-tossers isn't enough to get anything statistically significant in any direction



of course you do

I'll surely watch that game. Record breaking.

I am hoping JPB weighs in on the coin toss argument..

Any one coin toss is the same as any other. It doesn't matter if there are 300 tossers. 300 tosses is highly likely, not certain, to produce 140-160 and reasonably likely to give 145-155. And if applied blind to 300 picks will result in next to bottom if Jespah's form continues. She's probably plucking petals off a daisy chain.

11 tosses for the Green Bay team is hardly likely to give 11--0. Although I admit it can be made to do.

spendi, Coin tosses are used to determine the probability of how many heads vs tails. It can range from 1% to 100% (for heads or tails), but the likelihood at the two extremes are proportionately less than all the other possible outcomes; that's simple statistics. That's the reason it's used. If a coin is flipped only once, you have a 50/50 chance of being right. Increase the numbers of flips, and the possibilities multiply by factors. Guessing the outcome of multiple flips becomes impossible. Try it.