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2011 Hurricane Season ...

 
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 06:20 pm
I sincerely hope the weather forecast is wrong about the severity of this one.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 06:27 pm
@realjohnboy,
Someone should tell Beaver to write his SS number on his arm in permanent marker in case they need to identify him later.

No joke.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 06:42 pm
Updated info from Dr Masters

Quote:
Irene likely to bring destructive fresh water flooding
In this morning's post, I highlighted the threat from storm surge flooding, but flash flooding and river flooding from Irene's torrential rains are also a huge threat. The hurricane is expected to bring rains in excess of 12" to 100-mile swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. The danger of fresh water flooding is greatest in northern New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York, where the soils are saturated from heavy August rains that were among the heaviest on record. At Philadelphia, rainfall so far this August has been 13 inches, not far from the record for rainiest month of all-time, the 15.82" that fell in August 1867. This record will almost certainly be broken when Irene's rains arrive. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along the west side of the hurricane's track, and the greatest wind damage will occur on the east side. Right now, it does not appear that tornadoes will be a major concern, but there will probably be a few weak tornadoes. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to affect New England, spawned six tornadoes, most of them weak F-0 and F-1 twisters.


http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2011/aug25_rain.png
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Aug, 2011 07:10 pm
Moving the tracking maps over to the new page

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109.gif
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_model.gif
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_sat_anim.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 26 Aug, 2011 09:52 am
New blog update from Dr Masters
Quote:
Forecast and storm surge potential for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. At those times, Irene is expected to be near the NC/VA border, then close to Long Island, NY, respectively. Thus, storm surge damage rivaling that experienced during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 is likely in northern NC, southern Maryland, and up Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night. It looks like Irene will pass New Jersey during low tide, which may limit the storm surge inundation to 3 - 6 feet there. Coastal New England from New York City to Massachusetts may also see storm surges characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane during Sunday morning's high tide, even if Irene has weakened to a tropical storm. I continue to give a 20% chance that a storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. more
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 26 Aug, 2011 09:56 am
For those who may think that a Cat 2 storm with a Cat 4 surge is only a Cat 2 storm. This is Ike which made landfall in Galveston as a Cat 2 storm with a large wind field and surge.

http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ike/photo-comparisons/images/Ike_PhotoPair_crystal_bch_TX_Loc1LG.jpg
0 Replies
 
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Fri 26 Aug, 2011 03:05 pm
Had a little rain but not much wind yesterday in S Florida.
Today it's Cowabunga! Surfs up to 9-13 ft.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Sat 27 Aug, 2011 01:31 pm
JPB hasn't posted her usual visuals yet, but I was looking at the 2 pm ET report from the NHC. The eye is at 35 degrees N and 76 degrees and moving NNE at 13 mph. That would put it in the Pimlico Sound separated from the Atlantic Ocean by the Outer Banks to the east. The Outer Banks is the immensely popular and very narrow strip of land with communities like Cape Hatteras and Nags Head.
Irene has been downgraded to a Cat 1 - 85 mph winds - storm. It is a very large storm and is likely to bring heavy rains to the very populated coastal areas as it moves up the coast, even if it weakens to a tropical storm.
Here in Cville, there is no wind; but a constant drizzle and some brief heavy rains. We may get hit a bit harder as the eye gets to the 38th parallel later tonight. Virtually every hotel in town is booked solid tonight.
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Sat 27 Aug, 2011 01:39 pm
@realjohnboy,
She's been posting them over here:

http://able2know.org/topic/176508-5#post-4712994
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sat 27 Aug, 2011 01:42 pm
@realjohnboy,
They auto-refresh every three hours, rjb.

They're still on this page so I didn't reload them.

http://able2know.org/topic/172867-4#post-4711648

There's also an "Irene" specific thread here.

0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 28 Aug, 2011 03:52 pm
And if Irene hasn't been enough fun, we've got another major hurricane ramping up in the Atlantic.

Invest 92 - due to strengthen to a TS within the next 12-24 hours and reach hurricane strength shortly thereafter.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201192_model.gif
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201192_model_intensity.gif
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  2  
Reply Mon 29 Aug, 2011 08:54 pm
Inserting this here instead of the Irene thread -

Roger Angell's recollection of the hurricane of 1938 (in the New Yorker's News Desk blog):

August 28, 2011
BIG WIND
Posted by Roger Angell

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/assets_c/2011/08/Hurricane_1938-thumb-465x363-99324.jpg

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2011/08/hurricanes-irene-and-1938.html

Waiting out Hurricane Irene on the high ground of our fifth-floor apartment brought back memories to me of an earlier city storm vigil, in September, 1938, when I was getting ready to go off to college to start my freshman year. That hurricane came without a name (the cutesy nomenclature first came into use in the nineteen-forties) and without warning. Along with almost everyone else, I’d had no idea that hurricanes could happen anywhere near New York, or, if they did, that they could be a menace to anyone not at sea. This one slipped up the coast a hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras, grabbed a left, and came ashore at Bayport, Long Island, at three in the afternoon, packing winds of a hundred and twenty-five miles an hour. It quickly crossed the Island and the Sound, slammed into Connecticut and Rhode Island, and, diminishing, proceeded up into Massachusetts and Vermont that night and off into Quebec. Six hundred-odd people died, mostly along the Sound. Westerly and Watch Hill, R.I., were virtually obliterated, the streets of downtown Providence were under thirteen feet of water, and two or three of the minuscule but populated Thimble Islands, just off Branford, Connecticut, had disappeared.

Even when it was over, news of the disaster and its implications arrived in fragments and penetrated slowly. Watching the rain in the city, I was upset mostly because I had tickets for the next day’s national men’s tennis semi-finals at Forest Hills, and sensed that they would be postponed. I was due for Freshman Orientation at Harvard early the next week, but had to wait another five days before the New Haven Railroad tracks could be cleared. Rolling at last along the familiar, shore-hugging route toward Boston, I witnessed the dingy, everyday trackside environs progressively turn into something I’d seen before only in photographs of the World War, with broken-off telegraph poles, twisted and roofless houses, overturned billboards, and side streets overflowing with sodden trash. When we pulled into the New London station, the gawky bulk of the Orient Point ferry was lying on its back on the next track.

When I walked into Harvard Yard the next morning, overdue but excited, some of its ancient elms were prostrate and already being sawed into firewood. By that time, though, I’d probably begun to forget about the hurricane, and even to feel a little impatient with it, and I’d stopped thinking about good luck and bad, just as I’m doing today.

Photograph: Getty


JPB
 
  2  
Reply Tue 30 Aug, 2011 06:04 am
And we have Katia in the Atlantic headed towards the islands.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112.gif
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_model_intensity.gif
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_model.gif
0 Replies
 
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Aug, 2011 11:20 am
@ossobuco,
wonderful writing osso
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Wed 31 Aug, 2011 06:56 pm
Heads up folks!

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_5day.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Wed 31 Aug, 2011 08:21 pm
And, where did this little guy come from?

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201193_model.gif
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Wed 31 Aug, 2011 08:24 pm
@panzade,
Yeah.

Roger Angell is known recently as their baseball writer, though some other good writers also do sports. There is probably nothing of baseball yore he doesn't know. I think he's kicking at 91 now.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  2  
Reply Wed 31 Aug, 2011 10:38 pm
From Weather Underground's Facebook page:

Quote:
Katia became the second hurricane of the season, but remains well east in the Atlantic Ocean. The overall track of Katia remains uncertain, so it needs to be watched closely over the next few days.


http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 1 Sep, 2011 08:39 am
@JPB,
And your guess is as good as mine (and theirs) on what's going to happen with I93
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201193_model_intensity.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 1 Sep, 2011 07:01 pm
I93 has been upgraded to TD13 and is expected to become a named TS tomorrow.

They're gonna get wet in Louisiana!

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201113.gif
 

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