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Possible evidence of climate change, related discussion

 
 
Lash
 
Reply Tue 5 Sep, 2017 07:32 am
As consequences of Hurricane Harvey look almost like a bid for permanent encroachment on habitable coastal land, I'm discovering that south Florida is already dealing with intermittent flooding due to rain, requiring use of pumps.

Did not know this. I'm interested to see how long street pumping has been a regular event in Florida.

Irma is, as of this morning, a Cat 5, possibly heading for south Florida. I can't even imagine what the results could be if Irma brings even half as much rain as Harvey.

We've been relatively free of huge storms since Katrina.

I'm interested to see what percentage of New Orleans' population left and didn't return re Katrina... Is this how we lose coastal land?

Same with Houston's population...

Watching south Florida.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Heavy-Showers-Cause-Flooding-in-Miami-Beach-437926953.html%3famp=y
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Sep, 2017 07:37 am
Awesome details on impact of Katrina on New Orleans.

http://www.datacenterresearch.org/data-resources/katrina/facts-for-impact/
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Sep, 2017 07:41 am
Basic info from NASA.

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Excerpt:

The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.1

Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals of a changing climate.
0 Replies
 
alphabeta
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 5 Sep, 2017 10:50 am
@Lash,
It used to be called man-made global warming. Then the global temperature started dropping, so they changed it to climate change. There have been massive global temperature changes throught the millenia due to the sun - during the peak of the last ice age it was much colder and the Sahara Desert was not a desert but full of green vegetation. It is still colder now than it was during the medieval warm period.
0 Replies
 
Foofie
 
  0  
Reply Tue 5 Sep, 2017 12:38 pm
On some tv science show a while ago, it seems that Dutch scientists are ahead of the curve with developing the concept of floating islands. That might be the way to go, as the planet doubles its population in a generation or two, or less.

Then the whole concept of flooding might become academic? Or, at least nothing to worry about. Naturally, there will be people that want real dirt under their feet.
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  2  
Reply Tue 5 Sep, 2017 05:38 pm
@Lash,
The warming peaks in the graphs are all very sharp and short, the ice age troughs which inevitably follow are long and broad.
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Sep, 2017 04:07 am
The stats re Irma are very bad.

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/36250963/hurricane-irma-forecast-path-0906-17-2am

Excerpt:

The National Hurricane Center holds the storm's max sustained winds at 185 mph. Wind gusts with the hurricane are still hitting an incredible 225 mph. Category 5 storms include any storm with sustained winds topping 155 mph.


Hurricane Irma is now the strongest storm in the recorded history of the Atlantic Ocean.

Early Wednesday morning, the eye of the storm passed over the island of Barbuda and is now headed toward St. Martin. Later today, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will see a close encounter with Irma.

Tropical storm-force winds will likely be felt in South Florida by some time Saturday. Hurricane force winds could move over the area on Sunday or Monday.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Sep, 2017 04:53 am
Barbuda experiencing total radio blackout for the past three hours.
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Sep, 2017 02:25 am
Two "unprecedented" storms within a week.

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/climate_desk/2017/09/meteorologists_have_never_seen_a_storm_like_irma.html

Hurricane Irma rapidly strengthened over warmer than normal ocean waters on Tuesday into a Category 5 storm with estimated wind speeds of 185 mph—the strongest ever measured in the Atlantic Ocean.
On its projected path through the northern Caribbean, Irma could inflict an almost unimaginable blow. From the National Hurricane Center’s description of Category 5 damage: “A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  2  
Reply Thu 7 Sep, 2017 06:19 am
Scientists ask, "The new normal?"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/06/twin-megastorms-irma-harvey-scientists-fear-new-normal

Excerpt:

For Donald Trump, these twin megastorms are a source of awe. “Hurricane looks like largest ever recorded in the Atlantic!” he tweeted of Irma on Wednesday. “Even experts have said they’ve never seen one like this!” he posted of Harvey last week.

But for many scientists they are a worrying sign of a “new normal” in which extreme weather events become more intense as a result of manmade climate change. Rather than expressing astonishment, they say policymakers need to strengthen long-term countermeasures and act more effectively on reducing carbon emissions.
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Sep, 2017 03:45 am
Scientists feel discussion of the role of climate change in this season's hurricanes are their moral responsibility.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/newsstorm/hurricane-scientists-have-never-seen-an-image-like-this-before/ar-AArtxSw?ocid=sf


Follow
Eric Blake 🌀 ✔ @EricBlake12
3 hurricanes threatening land simultaneously in the W Atlantic Basin. Never seen anything like this in the modern record #Irma #Jose #Katia
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Sep, 2017 06:16 am
A bit off-topic, but this may produce some effect, so I'm parking it here.

A massive solar flare - Wednesday - may have additional reverberations. This is supposed to be a period of low solar activity, so a bit unexpected.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59b0f350e4b0354e440f5162?section=us_theworldpost

Excerpt:

NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured images on Wednesday of the most powerful flare recorded since at least 2008, when the current solar cycle began.

The space agency said radiation from solar flares “cannot pass through Earth’s atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground.”

However, solar flares can have an effect on communications and GPS.

National Geographic reports the flare has already caused high-frequency radio blackouts that lasted about an hour, and it may not be finished yet.

NASA has set a “strong geomagnetic storm watch” through Saturday as a result of the flare. The agency has also posted a map showing areas most likely to be impacted.
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Sep, 2017 05:18 pm
Surreal footage of a creepy hurricane phenomenon.

http://www.wyff4.com/article/i-am-in-disbelief-right-now-woman-stumbles-upon-hurricane-phenomenon/12209620?utm_campaign=WYFF&utm_content=59b473a019694a0007e07a2f&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=trueAnthem%3A+New+Content
roger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Sep, 2017 06:37 pm
@Lash,
It wouldn't let me watch the vid.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Sep, 2017 08:42 pm
@roger,
I'm sorry. I could see it.

The opening screen looks like it might be the vid, but you have to scroll down a bit and wait for it to materialize. Maybe that's it.

I'd be freaked out if I walked down to my dock and the ocean was missing.
roger
 
  2  
Reply Sat 9 Sep, 2017 09:27 pm
@Lash,
Yeah, around here it would be like walking outside and not seeing sage brush and sand.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Jun, 2019 12:27 pm
Please manage your shite.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/27/world/europe-heat-wave-spain-wildfire-intl/index.html?no-st=1561919075

It's so hot in Spain that manure self-ignited, sparking a 10,000-acre wildfire

Guys, most of Europe doesn't have a/c. This does not bode well into the future.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Jul, 2019 07:13 pm
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/game-paper-climate-change-raises-alarm-190608101953511.html

Excerpt:
One billion people displaced and fighting desperately for survival, with half the world's population subjected to "lethal heat" conditions for more than 20 days a year - "beyond the threshold of human survivability".

Drought, wildfires, and floods collapse entire ecosystems as two billion people struggle for potable water. Mega-cities such as Mumbai, Hong Kong, Lagos, and Manila are largely abandoned because of massive floods.


Climate change aiding hurricanes in Atlantic, say US scientists
"This scenario provides a glimpse into a world of 'outright chaos' on a path to the end of human civilisation and modern society as we have known it," said the paper, co-authored by Ian Dunlop, a former chair of the Australian Coal Association, and David Spratt, a long-time climate researcher.
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Thu 25 Jul, 2019 08:32 am
@Lash,
Quote:
Spratt told Al Jazeera the eye-catching headlines were "somewhat over the top", but he maintained the dire warnings were legitimate.

"We are reaching the end game, there are not a lot of pieces left on the chess board. We have to take action really fast," said Spratt.

He challenged climate scientists, including those from the leading Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to be more forthright with the global public about the calamity awaiting humanity if nothing is immediately done to halt the pumping of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the Earth's atmosphere.


Not to mention the effects on wildlife...

edgarblythe's right. It's humans themselves that are the asteroid.




0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Thu 25 Jul, 2019 08:45 am
'No doubt left' about scientific consensus on global warming, say experts

Extensive historical data shows recent extreme warming is unprecedented in past 2,000 years

Quote:
The scientific consensus that humans are causing global warming is likely to have passed 99%, according to the lead author of the most authoritative study on the subject, and could rise further after separate research that clears up some of the remaining doubts.

Three studies published in Nature and Nature Geoscience use extensive historical data to show there has never been a period in the last 2,000 years when temperature changes have been as fast and extensive as in recent decades.

It had previously been thought that similarly dramatic peaks and troughs might have occurred in the past, including in periods dubbed the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. But the three studies use reconstructions based on 700 proxy records of temperature change, such as trees, ice and sediment, from all continents that indicate none of these shifts took place in more than half the globe at any one time.

The Little Ice Age, for example, reached its extreme point in the 15th century in the Pacific Ocean, the 17th century in Europe and the 19th century elsewhere, says one of the studies. This localisation is markedly different from the trend since the late 20th century when records are being broken year after year over almost the entire globe, including this summer’s European heatwave.

Major temperature shifts in the distant past are also likely to have been primarily caused by volcanic eruptions, according to another of the studies, which helps to explain the strong global fluctuations in the first half of the 18th century as the world started to move from a volcanically cooled era to a climate warmed by human emissions. This has become particularly pronounced since the late 20th century, when temperature rises over two decades or longer have been the most rapid in the past two millennia, notes the third.

The authors say this highlights how unusual warming has become in recent years as a result of industrial emissions.

“There is no doubt left – as has been shown extensively in many other studies addressing many different aspects of the climate system using different methods and data sets,” said Stefan Brönnimann, from the University of Bern and the Pages 2K consortium of climate scientists.

Commenting on the study, other scientists said it was an important breakthrough in the “fingerprinting” task of proving how human responsibility has changed the climate in ways not seen in the past.

“This paper should finally stop climate change deniers claiming that the recent observed coherent global warming is part of a natural climate cycle. This paper shows the truly stark difference between regional and localised changes in climate of the past and the truly global effect of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions,” said Mark Maslin, professor of climatology at University College London.

Previous studies have shown near unanimity among climate scientists that human factors – car exhausts, factory chimneys, forest clearance and other sources of greenhouse gases – are responsible for the exceptional level of global warming.

A 2013 study in Environmental Research Letters found 97% of climate scientists agreed with this link in 12,000 academic papers that contained the words “global warming” or “global climate change” from 1991 to 2011. Last week, that paper hit 1m downloads, making it the most accessed paper ever among the 80+ journals published by the Institute of Physics, according to the authors.

The pushback has been political rather than scientific. In the US, the rightwing thinktank the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CPI) is reportedly putting pressure on Nasa to remove a reference to the 97% study from its webpage. The CPI has received event funding from the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers and Charles Koch Institute, which have much to lose from a transition to a low-carbon economy.

But among academics who study the climate, the convergence of opinion is probably strengthening, according to John Cook, the lead author of the original consensus paper and a follow-up study on the “consensus about consensus” that looked at a range of similar estimates by other academics.

He said that at the end of his 20-year study period there was more agreement than at the beginning: “There was 99% scientific consensus in 2011 that humans are causing global warming.” With ever stronger research since then and increasing heatwaves and extreme weather, Cook believes this is likely to have risen further and is now working on an update.

“As expertise in climate science increases, so too does agreement with human-caused global warming,” Cook wrote on the Skeptical Science blog. “The good news is public understanding of the scientific consensus is increasing. The bad news is there is still a lot of work to do yet as climate deniers continue to persistently attack the scientific consensus.”

guardian
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