9
   

2011 Hurricane Season ...

 
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 Sep, 2011 02:04 pm
@JPB,
This storm (now named Lee) could be awful. Not much wind, but he is moving at a mere 2 mph. That could mean up to 20" of rain.
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 Sep, 2011 02:32 pm
@realjohnboy,
Everyone on the East Coast, exhale and help us blow Lee more toward the west. We sure could use 20 inches of rain.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 Sep, 2011 03:14 pm
@JPB,
Here's Lee
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201113.gif

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201113_ensmodel.gif

Here's Katia - which will probably curve away from the mainland before making landfall in the US.
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_5day.gif

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_ensmodel.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 2 Sep, 2011 05:20 pm
I grabbed the total precip map from New Orleans. They have about 2-3" of rain so far. It should update automatically.

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=LIX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=NTP&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1315005470&lat=29.95751953&lon=-90.07685852&label=New+Orleans%2C+LA&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Sep, 2011 05:12 pm
@JPB,
The ground must be completely saturated by now.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sun 18 Sep, 2011 04:50 pm
Lots of stuff getting started in the Atlantic basin. A couple of them may be of interest to the US mainland as next week progresses.

http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst_mm.gif
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 20 Sep, 2011 08:42 am
@JPB,
I98 bears watching. Not looking to strengthen too much too soon but worth keeping an eye on.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201198_ensmodel.gif

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201198_model_intensity.gif
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Sep, 2011 11:51 am
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/ep201109.gif

The weather folks are beginning to talk about hurricane Hilary causing troubles for next week's Albuquerque Balloon Fiesta.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Oct, 2011 02:36 pm
Wow. Take a look at Rina.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Mon 24 Oct, 2011 02:44 pm
@realjohnboy,
Looks like a hard hit on Cozumel and the Yucatan Peninsula.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201118_5day.gif

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201118_model.gif
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Oct, 2011 02:47 pm
@JPB,
And we have Invest 97 developing behind her.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201197_model.gif
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201197_model_intensity.gif
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Oct, 2011 02:53 pm
I read that, although the hurricane season ends at the end of September, the water temps in the Gulf remain quite high.
jcboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Oct, 2011 04:38 pm
I hope it doesn’t decide to swing around and hit St. Pete.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Tue 25 Oct, 2011 10:19 am
@JPB,
Update from Dr Masters

Quote:
Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found Rina's eyewall had a gap in it during their 4:32 am EDT eye penetration this morning, probably caused by the moderate wind shear the storm has experienced over the past day. It is unlikely that Rina will be able to "bomb" and undergo rapid intensification unless it can close off this gap in the eyewall. Wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday night, so Rina still has a day and a half to continue its intensification process. Given the storm's inability to close off its eyewall so far, I expect that a Category 3 storm is the strongest that we will see. On Wednesday night, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.

A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, which should turn Rina more to the northwest by Thursday and northeast on Friday. However, it is uncertain if Rina will be strong enough to fully "feel" the steering influence of this through and be swept to the east-northeast into Southwest Florida and the Florida Keys. If Rina makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula and weakens significantly, the storm will likely be too weak to get caught up by the trough and will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. This is the solution of the latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF models. However, if Rina remains strong through Friday, it is more likely to get caught up by the trough and drawn into the Florida Keys as a weakening tropical storm on Friday or Saturday. This is the solution of the latest 2 am EDT runs of the GFDL and GFS models. There is high degree of uncertainty which set of model runs will be correct.
0 Replies
 
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Oct, 2011 11:03 am
@realjohnboy,
Actually, hurricane season ends on Nov 30th, though the peak month is Sept.

Total and Average Number of
Tropical Storms by Month (1851–2009)
Month Total Average

May 18 0.1
June 80 0.5
July 109 0.7
August 352 2.2
Sept 540 3.4
October 314 2.0
Nov 85 0.5
Dec 16 0.1
Source: NOAA FAQ[10]
0 Replies
 
 

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