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2011 Hurricane Season ...

 
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 30 Jul, 2011 03:41 pm
@realjohnboy,
Little rain, or no rain, out of Don. 2 more storms out there.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 30 Jul, 2011 03:48 pm
@realjohnboy,
I got more rain at my house than they got where Don swiped at and missed the coast.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 30 Jul, 2011 03:55 pm
@edgarblythe,
Happy to hear you got something, Edgar.
0 Replies
 
Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Sat 30 Jul, 2011 03:56 pm
@edgarblythe,
I was hoping he would curl to the north, but no dice...
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  3  
Reply Sat 30 Jul, 2011 04:00 pm
I was awkened by a really nice rain this morning. Beautiful.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Aug, 2011 11:52 am
@edgarblythe,
Wonderful!!!
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Aug, 2011 11:54 am
Heads up So FL!
Quote:
Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.

In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.Dr. Jeff Master's blog

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201191_model.gif
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201191_model_intensity.gif
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Aug, 2011 06:33 pm
Emily is her name and the current path takes it over Haiti and then on to Florida.
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Aug, 2011 06:43 pm
@Butrflynet,
Yesterday, the Animas river was a light green and about as clear as it ever gets. Today, it was running brick red. I suspect there was a heck of a storm somewhere between Silverton and Durango in SW Colorado.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 07:13 am
Here's Emily's projection map

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201105_5day.gif
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 10:56 am
@JPB,
Right by my house...hope she leaves about 5 inches of rain...or 10
roger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 11:19 am
@panzade,
You do understand that the acronyn for the National Oceanic and Aeronautic Administration is pronounced Noah for a reason, I hope.
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 11:25 am
@roger,
Right now Roger, a flood of biblical proportions would still leave us in drought conditions.

http://www.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/plots/okehp.gif
0 Replies
 
Letty
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 11:27 am
@roger,
Scared again. Tropical storms have done more damage to my home than hurricanes. Guess I had better batten down the hatches. Hate being alone at this point.

Yep, Rog. Noah built the ark.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Tue 2 Aug, 2011 12:27 pm
@Letty,
I don't think you're going to see a FL landfall, miss L. If she goes up the coast without making landfall then you should be on the drier side of the storm.

Here are the models.
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201105_model.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Aug, 2011 12:03 pm
Lots of activity in the north Atlantic arena, mostly looking towards Bermuda and then out to sea. We need to keep an eye on Invest 93 here.
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201106.gif
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201192_model.gif
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201193_model.gif
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201194_model.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Aug, 2011 07:34 am
Invest 93 dissipated over the weekend but has reformed and appears to be headed for Mexico. Models differ wildly on how strong 93 is likely to become but it's definitely worth keeping an eye on.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201193_model_intensity.gif
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Aug, 2011 07:36 am
Also, Invest 94 became TS Gert and is now headed back out to sea.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201107_5day.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Aug, 2011 08:01 am
@JPB,
Invest 93 should reach TS strength within the next 24-36 hours. The current track takes it across Central America.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 19 Aug, 2011 09:59 am
@JPB,
Invest 93 has now become TD 8 and will probably increase to TS strength later today as it approaches Belize.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201108.gif

We also have additional activity in the Atlantic with Invest 97 headed towards the Leeward Islands, DR/Haiti and Cuba, and then possibly FL or the GOM.
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201197_model.gif

And Invest 98 just forming off the coast of Africa.
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201198_model.gif
0 Replies
 
 

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