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Wed 1 Jun, 2011 04:09 pm
...Begins today, June 1st.
Last year, we were lucky. There were lots of storms but for one reason or another (ocean temperatures, winds, luck) none of them hit the mainland of the U.S.
We will see how we do this year. I have the National Hurricane Center's maps on my toolbar.
Please join in if you are interested.
@realjohnboy,
I'll be watching. In the meantime, here's a summary of what we might expect.
Quote:CSU predicts a very active hurricane season: 16 storms, 9 hurricanes
By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 11:32 AM CDT on June 01, 2011
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2011, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 166% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is identical to their April forecast. The forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 61% (42% is average.)
The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:
1) Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). This should lead to average to below average levels of vertical wind shear.
2) Above average May sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.
3) Below average surface pressures during May in the tropical Atlantic.
4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.
Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to weak La Niña conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and above-average tropical Atlantic and far north Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those five years were 2008, which featured Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav; 1996, which had two hurricanes that hit North Carolina, Fran and Bertha; 1989, which featured Category 5 Hurricane Hugo; 1981, a very average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes; and 1951, a year that featured 6 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes.
More from Dr Masters
6:00 PM EDT 1 June 2011 Update
The system that crossed central Florida today (93L) has moved on off to the west, and is now entering the Gulf, there remains about a 20% chance for development, it is likely to continue its rapid west southwest movement, possibly all the way into southern Texas.
The area in the west Caribbean is still mostly disorganized, but has a 10% chance for development over the next 48 hours. It is not being tracked as an Invest area currently, and this system is not expected to develop due to shear and dry air in the area..
8:30 AM 1 June 2011 Update
The approach of the system off Florida is moving pretty quickly and parts of Florida should start seeing rain later today, it will likely move through central and north Florida bringing quite a bit of Rain, unfortunately parts south will not see much, if anything from it. It has a little under 10 hours to organize enough to become a tropical depression which there is a 30% chance to do so.
Most of the rain is southwest of the center.
@edgarblythe,
The story I read today made the comment that the two storms you cited are "running out of real estate" to develop into significant events. The Gulf waters are not yet warm enough to feed them.
@realjohnboy,
But if the rain could get to my drought-stricken property, I would be real happy.
@edgarblythe,
Quote:But if the rain could get to my drought-stricken property, I would be real happy.
We got plenty of rain here in St. Pete today, our first in two weeks and boy we needed it!
@jcboy,
We have had one shower over my home all year so far.
@realjohnboy,
panzade...checking in. I'll be covering 100 sq miles around West Palm Beach
Wow. That storm in the Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba area has been stuck there for days and is now up to a 50% chance a strengthening into something more serious.
@realjohnboy,
I feel sorry for the Haiti people having to deal with this with little or no shelter available after the earthquake.
Our TV weatherman has said this morning that there is a shift in the works that may key new activity in the gulf. More probability of rain in a week or so. This would suggest to me that we may be then more susceptible to storms.
A storm off the east coast of FL may bring rain to that area today. It, oddly, is moving in a southerly direction which could take it over Cuba.
@realjohnboy,
Palm Beach Post
Quote:The inches of rain that fell on western areas of Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and Broward counties last weekend made such an impact that meteorologists have decided the areas are no longer considered to be in a D4 "exceptional drought", and are now in a D3 "extreme drought".
The U.S. Drought Monitor, released today, shows that the area of Florida in an exceptional drought went from 22.46 percent down to 20.65 percent. The percent of Florida in a D3, extreme drought, fell from 50.41 to 47.59.
Today's rain helped...a little.
@realjohnboy,
TS Bret has formed near the Bahamas. He is not expected to strengthen beyond TS strength or to affect the US mainland.
TS Don is headed towards Texas
@JPB,
Possible landfall between Corpus Christi and somewhere a bit south of Houston, I hope. That will give us drought-busting rainfall around these parts.
@edgarblythe,
Time yet for the track to shift but it looks like the center is a little south of you for that, edgar.
@JPB,
Looks like eastern NM and western TX will finally get some rain.
So far this year in central NM, we've accumulated just half an inch of rain. We should be up to 4 inches of rain.
@edgarblythe,
It looks like Don will be south of you, edgar, but I hope you get some rain out of it. I think I read that 72% of TX is in drought and you need something like 15" to get out of it. My brother called from San Antonio yesterday and claimed, perhaps dryly, that TX has added a new level of severity beyond the scale they had been using.
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