THE US, THE UN AND IRAQ VI

After a second look, it seems most of Turkey might be considered part of ASIA, and not the Middle East as the larger map shows. The smaller, northern section of Turkey, may be considered Europe.

Friday, February 20, 2004

Annan: No Direct Elections are Possible before July 1

The Washington Post reports the following: Kofi Annan did as Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani asked, and delivered a considered judgment about whether direct elections can be held before June 30. Annan's answer: No. That is not the answer Sistani wanted (see below). The US plan to hold council-based elections has collapsed--the Iraqis don't want it, Sistani doesn't want it, no one wants it. But Mr. Bremer insisted at a news conference on Thursday that 1) the transfer of sovereignty to an Iraqi government will occur without fail by July 1 and 2) Islamic canon law will not be the law of the land, and the rights of minorities will be guaranteed in the Fundamental Law now being drafted by the Interim Governing Council.

The major issue now is how exactly a government will be erected that will take control of the country from the US this summer, and that will then guide Iraq to open elections by the end of the year or so. Sistani wants the United Nations Security Council to issue a formal resolution regarding the new government and setting a firm timetable for general elections. ash-Sharq al-Awsat reports that IGC member Ahmad Shiya` al-Barak consulted with Sistani on Thursday and emerged to say that the grand ayatollah would accept a deadline for open elections of 3 months after July 1 (i.e. October 1). Al-Barak also said that there was no objection to devolving sovereignty for 3 months onto the Interim Governing Council (is he reporting Sistani's views here)? There is some indication that if Sistani feels the elections are postponed for too long, he is willing to call his millions of followers into the streets. It would be interesting for the US political process if those demonstrations are happening in September and October because Sistani felt the delay was becoming intolerable.

In response to Mr. Bremer's news conference, ash-Sharq al-Awsat reports that the radical young Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr threatened an armed challenge to the Americans, alluding to the 1920 rebellion against British colonialism and to the "Sha`ban Uprising" against Saddam of spring, 1991, if Islamic law is not made the sole source of Iraqi law. Muqtada's office called Bremer's refusal of Islamic law as the principal source of legislation a sign of "vehement enmity toward Islam." Bremer's statement was also denounced by Sadr al-Din al-Qubanji of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution In Iraq in Najaf, who said, "today, sovereignty is the property of the people, and this means we are not constrained by concepts imported from thousands of miles away." Sistani's chief aide in Karbala, Abdul Mahdi al-Karbala'i, said, "Islam is the basis for legislation, and that is a natural right insofar as we are a majority Muslim society in contrast with the smallness of the other religions." He added, "We must not forget an important point, which is that no one has a right to interfere in the wording of the constitution except the Iraqi people. The supreme Object of Emulation (Sistani) has made clear his insistence that the (final) constitution be drafted by a constituent assembly elected by the people."

WP adds: "Violence continued Thursday as insurgents killed two American soldiers in a roadside bombing near Khaldiyah, 50 miles west of the capital, the U.S. command said. "
posted by Juan Cole at 2/20/2004 08:57:08 AM

A Legacy of Lies

President Bush misled the nation about the threat Iraq posed. But he wasn't the first to do so.

By Seth Ackerman

February 20, 2004

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It was a devastating blow to the White House. David Kay, the man hand-picked by the Bush administration to lead the search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, confirmed to a Senate committee in late January that the intelligence supporting Washington's case for war against Saddam Hussein was baseless.

"It turns out we were all wrong… and that is most disturbing," Kay declared.

We have told them in our many sessions with them that safety and victory are incompatible, that the tree of triumph and empowerment cannot grow tall and lofty without blood and defiance of death, that the [Islamic] nation cannot live without the aroma of martyrdom and the perfume of fragrant blood spilled on behalf of God, and that people cannot awaken from their stupor unless talk of martyrdom and martyrs fills their days and nights. The matter needs more patience and conviction. [Our] hope in God is great.

E. (sic) The Immigrant Mujahidin

Their numbers continue to be negligible as compared to the enormity of the expected battle. We know that the convoys of good are many, that the march of jihad continues, and that only confusion over the banner and a muffled reality keep many of them from [answering] the call to battle. What prevents us from [calling] a general alert is that the country has no mountains in which we can take refuge and no forests in whose thickets we can hide. Our backs are exposed and our movements compromised. Eyes are everywhere. The enemy is before us and the sea is behind us. Many an Iraqi will honor you as a guest and give you shelter as a peaceable brother. As for making his house into a base for launching [operations] and a place of movement and battle, this is rarer than red sulphur. For this reason, we have worn ourselves out on many occasions sheltering and protecting the brothers. This makes training the green newcomers like wearing bonds and shackles, even though, praise be to God and with relentless effort and insistent searching, we have taken possession of growing numbers of locations, praise be to God, to be base sites for brothers who are kindling [the fire of] war and drawing the people of the country into the furnace of battle so that a real war will break out, God willing.

Second: The Current Situation and the Future

There is no doubt that the Americans' losses are very heavy because they are deployed across a wide area and among the people and because it is easy to procure weapons, all of which makes them easy and mouth-watering targets for the believers. But America did not come to leave, and it will not leave no matter how numerous its wounds become and how much of its blood is spilled. It is looking to the near future, when it hopes to disappear into its bases secure and at ease and put the battlefields of Iraq into the hands of the foundling government with an army and police that will bring the behavior of Saddam and his myrmidons back to the people. There is no doubt that the space in which we can move has begun to shrink and that the grip around the throats of the mujahidin has begun to tighten. With the deployment of soldiers and police, the future has become frightening.

Third: So Where are We?

Despite the paucity of supporters, the desertion of friends, and the toughness of the times,. God the Exalted has honored us with good harm to the enemy. Praise be to God, in terms of surveillance, preparation, and planning, we have been the keys to all of the martyrdom operations that have taken place except those in the north. Praise be to God, I have completed 25 [operations] up to now, including among the Shi`a and their symbolic figures, the Americans and their soldiers, the police and soldiers, and the coalition forces. God willing, more are to come. What has prevented us from going public is that we have been waiting until we have weight on the ground and finish preparing integrated structures capable of bearing the consequences of going public so that we appear in strength and do not suffer a reversal. We seek refuge in God. Praise be to God, we have made good strides and completed important stages. As the decisive moment approaches, we feel that [our] body has begun to spread in the security vacuum, gaining locations on the ground that will be the nucleus from which to launch and move out in a serious way, God willing.

Fourth: The Work Plan

After study and examination, we can narrow our enemy down to four groups.

1. The Americans

These, as you know, are the most cowardly of God's creatures. They are an easy quarry, praise be to God. We ask God to enable us to kill and capture them to sow panic among those behind them and to trade them for our detained shaykhs and brothers.

2. The Kurds

These are a lump [in the throat] and a thorn whose time to be clipped has yet to come. They are last on the list, even though we are making efforts to harm some of their symbolic figures, God willing.

3. Soldiers, Police, and Agents

These are the eyes, ears, and hands of the occupier, through which he sees, hears, and delivers violent blows. God willing, we are determined to target them strongly in the coming period before the situation is consolidated and they control arrest[s].

4. The Shi`a

These in our opinion are the key to change. I mean that targeting and hitting them in [their] religious, political, and military depth will provoke them to show the Sunnis their rabies … and bare the teeth of the hidden rancor working in their breasts. If we succeed in dragging them into the arena of sectarian war, it will become possible to awaken the inattentive Sunnis as they feel imminent danger and annihilating death at the hands of these Sabeans. Despite their weakness and fragmentation, the Sunnis are the sharpest blades, the most determined, and the most loyal when they meet those Batinis (Shi`a), who are a people of treachery and cowardice. They are arrogant only with the weak and can attack only the broken-winged. Most of the Sunnis are aware of the danger of these people, watch their sides, and fear the consequences of empowering them. Were it not for the enfeebled Sufi shaykhs and [Muslim] Brothers, people would have told a different tale.

This matter, with the anticipated awaking of the slumberer and rousing of the sleeper, also includes neutralizing these [Shi`a] people and pulling out their teeth before the inevitable battle, along with the anticipated incitement of the wrath of the people against the Americans, who brought destruction and were the reason for this miasma. The people must beware of licking the honeycomb and enjoying some of the pleasures from which they were previously deprived, lest they surrender to meekness, stay on the[ir] land, prefer safety,, and turn away from the rattle of swords and the neighing of horses.

5. The Work Mechanism

Our current situation, as I have previously told you, obliges us to deal with the matter with courage and clarity and to move quickly to do so because we consider that [unless we do so] there will be no result in which religion will appear. The solution that we see, and God the Exalted knows better, is for us to drag the Shi`a into the battle because this is the only way to prolong the fighting between us and the infidels. We say that we must drag them into battle for several reasons, which are:

1 - They, i.e., the Shi`a, have declared a secret war against the people of Islam. They are the proximate, dangerous enemy of the Sunnis, even if the Americans are also an archenemy. The danger from the Shi`a, however, is greater and their damage is worse and more destructive to the [Islamic] nation than the Americans, on whom you find a quasi-consensus about killing them as an assailing enemy.

2 - They have befriended and supported the Americans and stood in their ranks against the mujahidin. They have spared and are still sparing no effort to put an end to the jihad and the mujahidin.

3 - Our fighting against the Shi`a is the way to drag the [Islamic] nation into the battle. We speak here in some detail. We have said before that the Shi`a have put on the uniforms of the Iraqi army, police, and security [forces] and have raised the banner of preserving the homeland and the citizen. Under this banner, they have begun to liquidate the Sunnis under the pretext that they are saboteurs, remnants of the Ba`th, and terrorists spreading evil in the land. With strong media guidance from the Governing Council and the Americans, they have been able to come between the Sunni masses and the mujahidin. I give an example that brings the matter close to home in the area called the Sunni Triangle -- if this is the right name for it. The army and police have begun to deploy in those areas and are growing stronger day by day. They have put chiefs [drawn] from among Sunni agents and the people of the land in charge. In other words, this army and police may be linked to the inhabitants of this area by kinship, blood, and honor. In truth, this area is the base from which we set out and to which we return. When the Americans disappear from these areas - and they have begun to do so - and these agents, who are linked by destiny to the people of the land, take their place, what will our situation be?

If we fight them {and we must fight them}, we will confront one of two things. Either:

1 - We fight them, and this is difficult because of the gap that will emerge between us and the people of the land. How can we fight their cousins and their sons and under what pretext after the Americans, who hold the reins of power from their rear bases, pull back? The real sons of this land will decide the matter through experience. Democracy is coming, and there will be no excuse thereafter.

2 - We pack our bags and search for another land, as is the sad, recurrent story in the arenas of jihad, because our enemy is growing stronger and his intelligence data are increasing day by day. By the Lord of the Ka`ba, [this] is suffocation and then wearing down the roads. People follow the religion of their kings. Their hearts are with you and their swords are with Bani Umayya (the Umayyads), i.e., with power, victory, and security. God have mercy.

I come back and again say that the only solution is for us to strike the religious, military, and other cadres among the Shi`a with blow after blow until they bend to the Sunnis. Someone may say that, in this matter, we are being hasty and rash and leading the [Islamic] nation into a battle for which it is not ready, [a battle] that will be revolting and in which blood will be spilled. This is exactly what we want, since right and wrong no longer have any place in our current situation. The Shi`a have destroyed all those balances. God's religion is more precious that lives and souls. When the overwhelming majority stands in the ranks of truth, there has to be sacrifice for this religion. Let blood be spilled, and we will soothe and speed those who are good to their paradise. [As for} those who, unlike them, are evil, we will be delivered from them, since, by God, God's religion is more precious than anything and has priority over lives, wealth, and children. The best proof [of this] is the story of the Companions of the Ditch, whom God praised. [Imam] al-Nawawi said that this story contained proof that, if the city and the desert fought each other until all without exception perished unless they professed belief in the oneness of God, this would be good. Persons live, blood is saved, and honor is preserved only by sacrifice on behalf of this religion. By God, o brothers, with the Shi`a, we have rounds, attacks, and dark nights that we cannot postpone under any circumstances. Their danger is imminent, and what we and you feared is most certainly a reality. Know that those [Shi`a] are the most cowardly of God's creatures and that killing their leaders will only increase their weakness and cowardice, since with the death of one of their leaders the sect dies with him. It is not like when a Sunni leader dies. If one dies or is killed, a sayyid arises. In their fighting, they bring out courage and hearten the weak among the Sunnis. If you knew the fear [that exists] among the Sunnis and their masses, your eyes would cry over them in sadness. How many mosques have been converted into Husayniyyas (Shi`i mosques), how many houses have they demolished on the heads of their occupants, how many brothers have they killed and mutilated, and how many sisters have had their honor defiled at the hands of these depraved infidels? If we are able to strike them with one painful blow after another until they enter the battle, we will be able to [re]shuffle the cards. Then, no value or influence will remain to the Governing Council or even to the Americans, who will enter a second battle with the Shi`a. This is what we want, and, whether they like it or not, many Sunni areas will stand with the mujahidin. Then, the mujahidin will have assured themselves land from which to set forth in striking the Shi`a in their heartland, along with a clear media orientation and the creation of strategic depth and reach among the brothers outside [Iraq] and the mujahidin within.

1 -- We are striving urgently and racing against time to create companies of mujahidin that will repair to secure places and strive to reconnoiter the country, hunting the enemy - Americans, police, and soldiers -- on the roads and lanes. We are continuing to train and multiply them. As for the Shi`a, we will hurt them, God willing, through martyrdom operations and car bombs.

2. - We have been striving for some time to observe the arena and sift the those who work in it in search of those who are sincere and on the right path, so that we can cooperate with them for the good and coordinate some actions with them, so as to achieve solidarity and unity after testing and trying them. We hope that we have made good progress. Perhaps we will decide to go public soon, even if in a gradual way, so that we can come out into the open. We have been hiding for a long time. We are seriously preparing media material that will reveal the facts, call forth firm intentions, arouse determination, and be[come] an arena of jihad in which the pen and the sword complement each other.

3 - This will be accompanied by an effort that we hope will intensify to expose crippling doubts and explain the rules of shari`a through tapes, printed materials, study, and courses of learning [meant] to expand awareness, anchor the doctrine of the unity of God, prepare the infrastructure, and meet [our] obligation.

5 (sic) - TheTiming for Implementation

It is our hope to accelerate the pace of work and that companies and battalions with expertise, experience, and endurance will be formed to await the zero hour when we will begin to appear in the open, gain control the land at night, and extend it into daylight, the One and Conquering God willing. We hope that this matter, I mean the zero hour, will [come] four months or so before the promised government is formed. As you can see, we are racing against time. If we are able, as we hope, to turn the tables on them and thwart their plan, this will be good. If the other [scenario] [happens] - and we seek refuge in God - and the government extends its control over the country, we will have to pack our bags and break camp for another land in which we can resume carrying the banner or in which God will choose us as martyrs for his sake.

6. What About You?

You, gracious brothers, are the leaders, guides, and symbolic figures of jihad and battle. We do not see ourselves as fit to challenge you, and we have never striven to achieve glory for ourselves. All that we hope is that we will be the spearhead, the enabling vanguard, and the bridge on which the [Islamic] nation crosses over to the victory that is promised and the tomorrow to which we aspire. This is our vision, and we have explained it. This is our path, and we have made it clear. If you agree with us on it, if you adopt it as a program and road, and if you are convinced of the idea of fighting the sects of apostasy, we will be your readied soldiers, working under your banner, complying with your orders, and indeed swearing fealty to you publicly and in the news media, vexing the infidels and gladdening those who preach the oneness of God. On that day, the believers will rejoice in God's victory. If things appear otherwise to you, we are brothers, and the disagreement will not spoil [our] friendship. [This is} a cause [in which] we are cooperating for the good and supporting jihad. Awaiting your response, may God preserve you as keys to good and reserves for Islam and its people. Amen, amen.

Peace and the mercy and blessings of God be upon you.

http://www.cpa.gov/transcripts/20040212_zarqawi_full.html

Iraq: Foreign Islamic Insurgents Seeking Help From Al-Qaeda
By Charles Recknagel

A letter seized by U.S. troops in Iraq is focusing new attention on a Jordanian-born Islamic extremist operating in Iraq. Washington says Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi is reaching out to Al-Qaeda for help in provoking violence between Iraq's Sunni and Shi'a in a new bid to force the U.S. out of the country.

Prague, 10 February 2004 (RFE/RL) -- U.S. officials are confirming that they intercepted a letter last month from a foreign-led Islamic extremist group in Iraq that asks Al-Qaeda for help in driving U.S. forces out of the country.

A top U.S. military commander in Iraq, General Mark Kimmitt, said yesterday that the letter -- first reported by the U.S. daily "The New York Times" earlier this week -- was written by Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian militant leader operating in Iraq. "We are persuaded that Zarqawi was the author of this letter. It is our understanding that this letter was being taken by a courier outside this country [Iraq] for delivery abroad, and it is our intent and, certainly, our hope that, in the near future, that this letter can be declassified," Kimmit said.

"The interesting thing is that he is an extreme Sunni following the Salafist, Wahabi school, and this would be the natural course for them to try and target religious symbols in order to complicate the transition to democracy."
The attribution of the letter to al-Zarqawi focuses renewed attention on a mysterious figure who has long been identified by the United States as being an "associate" of Al-Qaeda. Prior to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell cited al-Zarqawi's presence in the country as evidence of a possible link between Saddam Hussein's regime and international terrorist groups.

Powell said yesterday that the letter supports Washington's argument that al-Zarqawi was in Iraq prior to the toppling of Hussein in April. "It certainly lends, I think, some credence to what we said at the UN last year, that he was active in Iraq and doing things that should have been known to the Iraqis, and we are still looking for those connections and to prove those connections," Powell said.

Analysts say the letter underlines the fact that some foreign-led Sunni extremist groups in Iraq share common ideological values with Al-Qaeda and that these may provide a good foundation for operational ties. The extent to which militant Islamists might have afforded a connection in the past between Hussein's regime and Al-Qaeda is hotly debated by proponents and critics of the U.S. administration's argument for invading Iraq.

Magnus Ranstorp is an expert on terrorist groups at the Center on Terrorism and Political Violence at St. Andrews University in Scotland. He says that al-Zarqawi himself is not considered a member of Al-Qaeda. But as a member of a Jordanian group opposed to that country's Western-leaning monarchy, he has long been involved in struggles against the U.S. presence throughout the region.

Ranstorp says al-Zarqawi "straddles multiple camps" in the militant Muslim world, many of which could be considered to be under the general umbrella of Al-Qaeda's ideology, even though they are separate from the group itself. "I think [al-Zarqawi] straddles multiple camps," he said. "The important thing is he has been in many different stations and that enables him to have this loose control or guiding force in terms of operations."

Al-Zarqawi is suspected of orchestrating the murder of U.S. diplomat Laurence Foley in Amman in 2002. He was sentenced to death in absentia by a Jordanian court last year for plotting attacks against U.S. and Israeli targets.

In Iraq, al-Zarqawi is suspected of being behind several major incidents, including the deadly bombing of the UN headquarters in Baghdad, an attack on a shrine in the holy Shi'a city of Al-Najaf, and an attack outside the main gate of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in Baghdad. Washington offered a $5 million reward in October for information leading to his arrest and conviction.

The letter attributed to al-Zarqawi specifically appeals for help from Al-Qaeda leaders to help spark a sectarian war between Iraqi Shi'a and Sunni Muslims that might cause the United States to withdraw from the country. CPA spokesman Dan Senor said yesterday that "the document...talks about a strategy of provoking violence targeted at the Shi'a, the Shi'a leaders, in hope that it would provoke reprisals [by the Shi'a] against other ethnic groups in the country."

Ranstorp says an appeal for help in attacks targeting Shi'a would be in keeping with the common values of al-Zarqawi and of Al-Qaeda. Those values are rooted in the extremist Salafi movement within Sunni Islam. The movement considers Shi'ism to be outside the pale of Islam and a threat to the religion's Sunni mainstream.

"The interesting thing is that he is an extreme Sunni following the Salafist, Wahabi school, and this would be the natural course for them to try and target religious symbols in order to complicate the transition to democracy. [That is] in essence trying to bring into fruition -- through various simple acts of violence that may have a cascading effect through the different communities -- turbulence that would make it a lot easier for them to get an advantage in operations against the West and against the United States, in particular," Ranstorp said.

But even as the letter calls for help in provoking communal violence, the document also acknowledges that foreign-led militant Sunni groups so far have had limited success in rallying Iraqis under their banner.

The intercepted letter speaks of the difficulties foreign-led Islamic insurgent groups have had in persuading Iraqi families to let them use their homes as operational bases. "The New York Times" quotes the author of the letter as saying: "Many Iraqis would honor [militants] as a guest and give you refuge, for you are a Muslim brother. However, they will not allow you to make their home a base for operations or a safe house."

The letter also says that any new initiatives to provoke sectarian strife must be launched before the United States hands over political authority to a sovereign Iraqi government at the end of June. "The New York Times" quotes the letter as saying that after that date, "the Americans will continue to control from their bases, but the sons of this land [Iraqis] will be the authority," making it more difficult to woo Iraqis to the insurgents' cause.

In describing the letter yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Powell called it "very revealing" of the problems Islamic insurgents face in Iraq, even as it shows they remain determined to fight U.S. forces. "With respect to the letter itself, it is very revealing. They describe the weaknesses that they have in their efforts to undercut the coalition's efforts but, at the same time, it shows they haven't given up," he said. "They are trying to get more terrorists into Iraq, and they are trying to create more terrorist organizations, to try to defeat our purposes. But they will not succeed."

Foreign-led Islamic militant groups make up only part of the anti-U.S. forces operating in Iraq. Other groups are reported to be composed of Hussein loyalists. It is unclear to what extent Islamists and Hussein loyalists act independently or in loose cooperation.

In a fresh outbreak of violence in Iraq today, some 50 people were killed and dozens wounded when a car bomb ripped through a police station south of Baghdad. No one has so far claimed responsibility for that blast.
author biography

sumac's quote, "Some have been successfully mis-educated, some are true believers, some are non-thinkers, some don't give a damn, some possess an ideological belief system and/or attendant value system that will not allow objective thinking and understanding, some have a personality/cognitive structure which predisposes them to a really bad, harmful conclusion in thought and behavior, etc., etc." *** You are describing the American Population. Our future is doomed.