The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

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Quote:

LOS ANGELES — Texas congressman Ron Paul won the California Republican straw poll Saturday after making several speeches at the GOP state convention, officials announced.

The presidential hopeful drew 374 out of 833, or 44.9 percent, ballots, Tom Del Beccaro, California Republican Party chairman announced at the GOP state convention. Ballots were cast by party members, associated members and registered guests, who could choose among 11 candidates.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry came in second, with 244 votes, or 29.3 percent.

The rest of the field of 11, which included write-ins for the first time:

Mitt Romney (74, 8.8 percent)
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (64, 7.7 percent)
Jon Huntsman (17, 2.0 percent)
Herman Cain (15, 1.8 percent)
Newt Gingrich (14, 1.7 percent)
Thad McCotter (7, 0.8 percent)
Rick Santorum (7, 0.8 percent)
Gary Johnson (2, 0.2 percent)
Fred Karger (1, 0.1 percent)
Write-ins (15, 1.8 percent) Ron Paul wins California straw poll

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More on Perry's slide (Rasmussen this time):

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/obama_46_perry_39

(As you see in the title, the poll that came out on Friday puts Obama at 46% over Perry's 39%. Two weeks ago, Perry had 43% vs. Obama's 41%.)

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@realjohnboy,

Bloomberg spent billions of his own money to get re-elected and he needed every penny.

He's not an attractive national candidate.

He has virtually no chance of pulling off a 3rd Party upset and I don't think he's interested in symbolic gestures.

Greater likelihood that Paul runs as a 3rd Party candidate, but not, I think, a significant one. The GOP is being careful to treat him with respect and the only other candidate in the race who gets close to suggesting he is a kook is Rick Santorum, a man who is not going to capture the nomination himself.

Paul's been in politics for many years and while he is a bit kooky, he's not crazy. I think he knows he could never win in a three person race and that by running as a 3rd Party candidate he would very likely clinch the race for Obama.

Just my opinion.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

funny you should bring that up...

I think it's inevitable that the Republican party splits.

just a question of how long it takes...

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@sozobe,

Quote:

More on Perry's slide (Rasmussen this time):

Perry has slipped a bit, but he still beat Romney by a mile in the primary. With this economy, which shows every sign of being dangerously close to falling into depression, the GOP should be able to beat Obama with Mickey Mouse so polls showing Romney doing better against Obama dont mean much.

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If I were an Obama supporter, I would not be taking any comfort from or chortling over a slip in Perry's polling.

If he really can't beat Obama (which most Obama supporters seem to believe) than the longer he stays in the race the better.

Of course I'm not an Obama supporter, but neither am I a huge fan of Rick Perry. If he either doesn't have the substance, or he's too gaffe prone to beat Obama, then I want that to be made clear as soon as possible and for him to not clutter the stage.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Thank you for your opinion. I agree that it is unlikely that Bloomberg will run. I am inclined to believe that he wants to see the Repub nomination race come down to finding a candidate more in the "middle."
I am less certain about Paul. I said that this is his last hurrah and I believe he could pull voters away from both the Dems and Repubs.

(I will change my "pompous git" sig line as soon as I figure out how to).

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I think Palin's another real possibility at a third-party candidate. I just don't see her going gently into that good night, and I think the Republican establishment is doing their best to keep her away from this race. She has real infrastructure ready to go at a moment's notice. But she might find some other outlet -- I don't think she really wants to lose. Not sure which impulse would win out. (Love for the spotlight or fear of losing. Again.)

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@realjohnboy,

Don't change it on my account.

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@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

I think Palin's another real possibility at a third-party candidate. I just don't see her going gently into that good night, and I think the Republican establishment is doing their best to keep her away from this race. She has real infrastructure ready to go at a moment's notice. But she might find some other outlet -- I don't think she really wants to lose. Not sure which impulse would win out. (Love for the spotlight or fear of losing. Again.)

Who is going to fund her? The first primary is the donor primary and then after we have the voting primary, everything I have seen indicates that Palin is not in this race because she can't get the dough....

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I think that if Perry got elected Europe would sidle off.

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@spendius,

To where?

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Easterly.

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@hawkeye10,

Oh she's got lots of funding at her disposal.

First and foremost there is SarahPAC:

http://www.sarahpac.com/

Right now it's coy about what donations go towards, exactly, but it's there and it's active and ready to go towards a presidential campaign at a moment's notice.

Randomish blurb when I Googled "Sarah Palin fundraising":

Quote:

Sarah Palin raised $469,000 between Oct. 13 and Nov. 22 bringing her total for the cycle to just under $4.5 million, Tim Crawford, SarahPAC's treasurer, told TIME exclusively. Crawford attributed the surge of funds to energy surrounding the midterm elections, Palin's endorsements and her TLC reality show "Sarah Palin's Alaska."

That's from 2010.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/30/sarah-palin-fundraising-sarahpac_n_789844.html

Karl Rove in July:

Quote:

Greta Van Sustern asked Rove if Palin could run an unconventional campaign. Rove answered, “Her people think so. They’ve talked with people about it, whom I’ve talked to, and they’ve been very explicit about it — that she doesn’t need to go to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, press the flesh and go to all these local events in order to cultivate the local leadership. She can talk to people over that. She doesn’t need to cultivate the fundraisers and the bundlers, because her mere presence in the race will generate the cash needed for the campaign. She doesn’t need to do things in a normal way to lay out a message. She can do it on Facebook. She can do it by having a friendly producer release a movie that is seen in theaters, and that’s going to be the interesting thing.”

http://www.politicususa.com/en/sarah-palin-2012-fundraising

Note -- I mention this in terms of her own thinking. I don't think she'll actually get enough to really put a dent in things, and I don't think she can win. But she has extensive infrastructure there and I think she thinks there's a real possibility that she could be a viable candidate.

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@sozobe,

Quote:

Sarah Palin’s political action committee raised $1.65 million in the first six months of 2011 and spent about the same amount, the PAC reported on Thursday.

Ms. Palin, the former Alaska governor, received 36,700 contributions from 24,000 people, according to Tim Crawford, the PAC’s treasurer. They contributed more than twice what Ms. Palin raised in the same period in 2009.

“We at Sarah PAC are very pleased and grateful for the tremendous support that Governor Palin receives from everywhere across our country,” Mr. Crawford said.

Obama plans to spend $1 billion running for office, Palin has raised 1.7 million in 6 months.....she in a minnow in this sea.

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@hawkeye10,

Well, yes. But she's a delusional minnow. The fact that she doesn't have a chance in hell doesn't mean that she won't do it.

Again, I think it's not that she wants to be president per se, but that she wants to extend her 15 minutes as long as she possibly can. I think her main consideration is whether a quixotic presidential run would harm or enhance her brand.

And I think the "quixotic" thing is key, and will mean that if she does it, she'd wait until the last possible moment. She'd talk about how her country needs her and she hadn't planned on running but was convinced by some courageous mama grizzly who begged her to ... you get the picture.

If it's quixotic, then she could say well ya know, if I had known earlier that there wouldn't be a single candidate able to take on Barack Obama like I can, I would've jumped in the race earlier. But, ya know, I just had too much faith in.... you get the picture.

Then it's not her fault if she loses.

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Additionally, it ought to be kept in mind that she raised that money while she was not a declared candidate. Declaring, and actually running for the office would attrace money. How much is anyone's guess, but it would be foolish to suggest she can't raise a respectable amount of money if she runs.

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@sozobe,

Quote:

Well, yes. But she's a delusional minnow. The fact that she doesn't have a chance in hell doesn't mean that she won't do it

I would be shocked if she could get any talent to run a campaign either, given that she has little money, little chance of getting money, and given that the Tea Party has moved on to Perry who is much more talented than she is.

At this point the best Palin to do is to become the next Pat Buchanan...a washed up politician turned TV personality.

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@Setanta,

It'll never happen.

Because it would make us too happy. Life just can't let that happen.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

You seem to assume that i was assuming that she'd be the standard bearer if she ran. I don't even know that she will run. Yes, though, you're right . . . it would be wonderful to see the ditz as the Rep. nominee . . .

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The Republican Nomination For President: The Race For The Race For The White House

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